James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars' • Hacker News Board

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#211

Post by zionic » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 4:55 PM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #185

keanzu wrote: post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

It will be interesting to see how this plays out but one thing has always confounded me. We haven't even started to figure out how to build a self-sustaining base of operations on the moon. We've been there, it is close but we don't know what years of low gravity will do to our bodies. If we can't figure that out, how could we ever go to Mars to set up a permanent colony.

I don't get this "we don't know how to do it" mindset. We know exactly how to do it, we're just not spending the money on it.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#212

Post by martythemaniak » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 4:55 PM UTC

leto_ii wrote: post #188

keanzu wrote: post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

It is not that he is a one-in-a-billion kind of genius, no.

He is probably in the 99.99th percentile of engineers, but that still means there's many many thousands of engineers as smart as he is. However, he is also in the 99th percentile for marketing, 99.9th percentile in leadership, 99th percentile of celebrity, etc.

No, he is not special on any single dimension, but it is extremely rare to find this distribution, which is what he actually is and all these dimensions were used to make his companies successful.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#213

Post by enraged_camel » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 4:56 PM UTC

leto_ii wrote: post #188

keanzu wrote: post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

>>Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to move to a planet that is essentially uninhabitable?

Your question is premature because you're comparing the Earth of today to the Mars of today.

The short-term goal (short in the grand scheme of things, that is) is to build a colony on Mars that can satisfy the first level of Maslow's hierarchy: air, food, water, shelter. After that, moving to Mars will be a much more attractive prospect to a non-negligible number of people.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#214

Post by keanzu » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 4:56 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #200

dirktheman wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. I'm Dutch, we've been converting sea to land since the early middle ages. Considering the technology at hand at that time, colonizing Mars is even somewhat comparable.

It is absolutely not comparable at all. Not even close. Not even in the same ballpark (cheap shot: not even on the same planet...).

> (cheap shot: not even on the same planet...)

I shouldn't have laughed. I definitely shouldn't have upvoted. Apparently I am not a good person. :P

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#215

Post by Tepix » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 4:59 PM UTC

leto_ii wrote: post #188

keanzu wrote: post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

Life on Earth didn't leave the ocean and ventured onto land because the ocean became uninhabitable. It was still a good idea.

Expanding beyond Earth is something we must do eventually. If we can do it now, why wait? We risk that we are unable to do it later.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#216

Post by pj_mukh » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 5:00 PM UTC

silvester23 wrote: post #22

Most of this reads as "this is how it worked for me so it must work like this for everyone". I understand he "enjoys controversy" but it's hard to take someone seriously who says things like "Oh, politicians should just ignore the protests and keep their minds straight. It will go away. It always does. They’ll find another big issue after a little while and switch to something else.", as if protests have never effect…

Another choice quote:

"I've had 10 cancers in the last few years and it hasn't been very bad. They just appear and grow. If you go to a good oncologist nearby, they'll take it out. It's just unfortunate for people who let it happen and it grows and grows until it's inoperable. I mean, nowadays, I think middle class and fairly wealthy people don't die of cancer."

What in the world?! I understand he is courting controversy, but to do in the most curmudgeon-y way possibly is new to me.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#217

Post by leto_ii » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 5:03 PM UTC

enraged_camel wrote: post #213

leto_ii wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

>>Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to move to a planet that is essentially uninhabitable? Your question is premature because you're comparing the Earth of today to the Mars of today. The short-term goal (short in the grand scheme of things, that is) is to build a colony on Mars that can satisfy the first level of Maslow's hierarchy: air, food, w…

> The short-term goal (short in the grand scheme of things, that is)

What is the timescale you have in mind? Hundreds, thousands of years? If this is the case, it makes more sense focusing on keeping Earth livable.

I think Kim Stanley Robinson had a nice take on this in "Aurora" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_(novel)). Without giving too much away, one of the core ideas of the novel is that there really is no place like home.

> After that, moving to Mars will be a much more attractive prospect to a non-negligible number of people.

Hmm, what makes you think that? Again, how bad should Earth get before living in a place where you can't go outside is a better option?

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#218

Post by leftyted » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

gameswithgo wrote: post #161

leftyted wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh I don't know. I think it's refreshing to hear someone call global warming a serious threat while at the same time dismissing activists as noisy children participating in a fad.

I have so much more respect for these noisy children than the serious adults who have spent millions of dollars lying about this issue and bribing officials to ignore it.

That's nice but -- in democracies at least -- politics is about persuasion and most people find 100 year old scientists more persuasive than schoolchildren.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#219

Post by rtkwe » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

leto_ii wrote: post #188

keanzu wrote: post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

> Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to move to a planet that is essentially uninhabitable? Where even in the best scenarios we would live really harsh lives after a long and dangerous voyage.

I agree, any scenario where people are able to survive long term on Mars the same techniques should work on Earth given enough resources dedicated to implementing them. The main reason surviving Mars might be easier than a ravaged Earth is just the number of people, it'll be much harder on Earth because even if one particular country manages to setup something they'll be in competition with every other country for the resources to do it and the scale required will be bigger because of the number of people it would have to support.

There is one other reason to colonize Mars that isn't 'running away from a burning planet' and that's just as a kind of civilization backup against crazy civilization ending events (super-bug, meteor strike, complete climate collapse, etc.), note none of these need to completely wipe out human life to want an 'independent backup' civilization. Modern life can seem pretty fragile when you think about the long supply chains from raw material to finished product and the intricate machines/techniques that go into even relatively simple products.

I think it's the kind of thinking that partially comes from exposure to a lot of scifi and also the fact that very few things threaten billionaires beyond death (which I'm a little surprised more aren't pouring money into senescence research) and the break down of modern life. They're pretty secure against most everything else.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#220

Post by leto_ii » Mon, Feb 03, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

Tepix wrote: post #215

leto_ii wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

Life on Earth didn't leave the ocean and ventured onto land because the ocean became uninhabitable. It was still a good idea. Expanding beyond Earth is something we must do eventually. If we can do it now, why wait? We risk that we are unable to do it later.

> If we can do it now, why wait?

Sure. But does it make sense to rely on this as a realistic Plan B to an Earth destroyed by global warming?