Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The way the central government is handling this is impressive Not really, they jailed the experts who told them that they needed to act quickly, sat on it for a month, and finally did something about it when it was already out of hand.
> they jailed the experts who told them that they needed to act quickly If you don't mind me asking, where did you see that info?
WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
461–465 of 465 posts
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#462How is this worse than your normal influenza cycle with 3-5Mio infections and 290k-650k death to warrant such an emergency?
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#463Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would love nothing more than to wager on that claim with anyone keen. This thread is full of cringeworthy doomsdayers and armchair epidemiologists throwing around unsubstantiated nonsense. When your only knowledge of this comes from the media people should be a bit more selfaware. The fact that qAnon folks are all over this and one day old accounts turning up saying millions will die speaks volumes for the level of…
How are you any different than the other “armchair epidemiologists” in this thread? If anything, I’d say you’re worse than others as you want to profit over a potential pandemic where thousands may die. The stock market has taken a hit over this outbreak fear. Go place your contrarian bets there if you’d like.
Put your money where your non-contrarian mouth is if you are so sure, the media told you so it must be true right?
Mark my words no one will mention this stuff in 3 months.
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#464Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can. See this page: https://www.who.int/healthinfo/statistics/en/ Use their API or the web search, however you like. If you're going to complain about not having up to the minute data available for 2019-nCov, keep in mind that they're not getting the data submitted regularly from China, it's all in daily reports rather than from hospitals.
would you mind sharing a more precise link to the actual 2019-nCoV CRF database? I want to independently recalculate mortalities
I'm sure there's a database for this outbreak in there somewhere, but I'm also sure the data presently in it is useless. It's likely that at this point the Chinese government doesn't even have accurate data.
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#465Earlier quoted context omitted.
would you mind sharing a more precise link to the actual 2019-nCoV CRF database? I want to independently recalculate mortalities
There's not much point, because the data WHO has on the outbreak is being collated from Chinese sources who probably aren't telling the truth. WHO doesn't have a lot of people on the ground in Wuhan and the rest of China feeding them information. I'm sure there's a database for this outbreak in there somewhere, but I'm also sure the data presently in it is useless. It's likely that at this point the Chinese governmen…
1) No dataset is perfect, and everything leaves traces, so clever people can and do constantly deduce insights from apparently worthless data.
2) It is in the interest of the Chinese to cooperate with submitting these CRF's to their best ability.
3) The little data the WHO does release to the public seems quite accurate for an outbreak, if you look at the log-linear plots and so on. (I am not saying the "known infections" represent the actual number of infections, just that it looks like accurate reporting of exactly that "known infections", and if one reads the forms you see it was designed to take into account overcapacity effects, like sending a patient back home, forwarding to a different hospital, etc...).
>I'm sure there's a database for this outbreak in there somewhere, but I'm also sure the data presently in it is useless.
What do you mean with "in there somewhere" ?
1) If you mean the WHO has the database, then of course the WHO has the CRF database, that's what my original message pointed out.
2) If with "in there somewhere" you meant that it's publically available on their website, then no, it isn't it explicitly states it isn't:
" State Parties are invited to contribute Anonymized nCoV Data to the nCoV Data Platform. State Parties should please contact WHO at EDCARN@who.int to obtain more information about, including log-in credentials for, the nCoV Platform.
To preserve the security and confidentiality of the Anonymized nCoV Data, State Parties are respectfully requested to take all necessary measures to protect their respective log-in credentials and passwords to the nCoV Data Platform. "
So they are sitting on the data as I originally claimed. On some of the clearly popularity boosted "contra-infodemic" threads, they even openly admit they can't give more detailed information even though they have access, when people ask them what they base their numbers on. [throughout the rest of the threads they typically go to great lengths to give the impression they work on the same aggregate numbers you and I can publically see, as if there is no censorship on the anonymized CRF data]
Also, why would I care about live to the minute data? I am looking for the actual data (noisy or not), and I don't care if it's delayed by a few days.
As I said, I am would like to build a statistical model.
As a lesson, perhaps not for this epidemic, but then the next: if the average chinese person can afford a smartphone, then surely they can afford a couple of UV-C LED's with a battery pack, with the LED's shining through a reflective manifold (think a pipe bent back and forth with U-bends), then breathing airflow together with proper dose (X mJ per square cm) should sterilize microbes, viruses in the air. Then it just needs to be recharged, instead of trying to manufacture 61Mega masks a day. The air sterilizer (to be attached to a face mask) could be reused for new epidemics every 5 or 10 years (in which time they might have bought 3 or 4 cell phones...)
EDIT: I see on change.org that there have been petitions towards the WHO on other issues before, perhaps someone should submit a petition to release the CRF database to the public domain. And it's not a question of hosting bandwidth, since the WHO can publish cryptographic hashes, and put up torrent magnets...