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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#531
post #8

A friend of mine is leaving HK today - he lives there, so this is not a casual trip abroad. He said the level of fear is making it impossible to live there as a single person. The shops and restaurants are closed. Even his own employer shut its doors indefinitely - and they’re just a video production company. The virus won’t be what ruins China. It’s the panic itself.

So really, how bad is this? Per article less than 400 people have died in the country with over a billion people.

>The real number of coronavirus cases is more than 75,000, according to a scientific model that says the outbreak will double in size every 6.4 days (businessweek)

Doubling every 6.4 days gets big fast. If it kept up that rate, which it won't, the world's population would all have it within 4 months. While it won't be that bad it has the potential to quickly run amok and kill many millions.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think a $600 phone every 2 years is a big purchase? People used to buy desktop computers every few years, now they don’t. The mobile phone generates such a great improvement in efficiency (no more getting lost, always available GPS), instant information access (no need to go to a library or spend time finding it in leaflets/books/traditional sources). $600 every 2 years is an absolute steal for the most economica…

If you don't make enough money to have any savings, any purchase of $600 at any time is "big." Like yea I can afford it because I make 3x what my friends and family do outside the Bay Area tech bubble, but I don't pretend that I'm not special because throwing a few hundred around doesn't cause me any stress about next month's rent, or credit card, or car payment, or health insurance bill.

This is the perspective of the younger generation. People 30+ (which is still, by far, the majority of the population), are not chronically poor.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negative interest rates have other major problems - that are worse than a liquidity shortage.

For a large part of history, negative real returns on stores of value were the norm. Before financial systems existed, almost all investments had negative returns if you didn’t put work and energy into them. To store value, you had to accumulate stuff, buildings or land. Most options either had high maintenance costs, were subject to risk of damage from natural causes and theft, were very volatile or required hard la…

It's an invalid comparison to compare modern economics to pre-financial system trends, because the "system" was highly inefficient.

It's sort of like saying "pre-modern medicine, therapeutic bleedings were common, and therefor we should consider them again".

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#534
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I refute it by pointing out that if the people are not afraid, they are not ruled by fear. The vast majority are no more afraid of their government than the average person in the U.S. is. Sure, some people have reason to fear-- there's the ever present problem of racial discrimination. And I don't mean this to say the U.S. is just as bad. I mean that people caught up in the badness in either country are outliers. So…

If you can't watch this video[0] and see a level of fear in people to acknowledge the date June 4th 1989 on camera, then I just don't believe you are arguing in good faith. You seem to grossly underestimate what "disappearing" people for speaking out does to a society. You seem to think that Chinese citizens are ok with it, because they don't protest it, as if they are even allowed to speak out about it without serio…

I'm fully aware of China's awful human rights history, the awful things they have done to their people. I've seen the videos. It was in fact a minor obsession of mine for a time. And yet the very video you post supports my point: The people questions about Tianmen Square don't react in horror or fear, they react in ignorance. Because the propaganda works".

And so what I'm saying is that you fail to understand that it's people do not, as a majority, have that view of their government. You are applying an outsider's horror of their actions in your thinking and assuming it's people are 1) fully aware of it and 2) would look on it poorly when in fact they tend to view such things as the government's protection of them from harmful influences. They have a fundamentally different view of free speech, they do not view it as a an unqualified right, they view it through a lens of "speech that harms social harmony is wrong."

You simply do not understand the extent to which China's propaganda to it's people actually works. As a result the people are not afraid. They feel protects. Because it works, there's also a high degree of self censorship. Not because they fear the consequences, but because they actually believe they are acting in their society's best interests. I have actually had someone say to me, "Even if I thought the government did something wrong, I would not talk too much about it because it would be harmful to social harmony."

China gave them the blue pill, and they took it, often not knowing the red one exists. There is no need to live in fear when you have been convinced the awful things your government does are in your best interest.

I am not just guessing on this matter. I have, first hand, had conversations on the topic with Chinese nationals. And it's infuriating, because it's much like the conversation you and I are having now: It seems obvious to us that they should be afraid, that they should look on their government with skepticism, cynicism, and fear. But they do not.* The propaganda works. The dissidents are an extremely, vanishingly small group and yes, I'm sure they live in fear. But you cannot extrapolate from that to the billion+ people who have little direct knowledge of such things, for whom such things are vague abstractions, and wouldn't care much if they knew a bit more because the propaganda works. They see someone jailed, and they think "He/she must have done something wrong." *The propaganda works."

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#535
post #212
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it any different than Flint Michigan? Except that Obama came in and drank the water.

This sort of what-about-ism doesn't address the core point. That top-down command and control systems are vulnerable to precisely this type of outcome. Providing a single western example of a much milder localized circumstance doesn't address anything except deflect attention from the main point. Flint was a local event. This is consuming all of China.

I was addressing "This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West."

You did answer my question though. I dont agree with the "it cant happen here because we have a different system" angle of my parent.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not common fear for the billion+ people living there. I have worked alongside many workers from China, and had a few student workers work for me. They do not view they their government as overly oppressive. They view it as working in the best interests of the people, protecting people from harmful things, like internet content through the firewall: in that case it may be they can circumvent it with some effor…

Stated with a western perspective here, but I wouldn't be surprised if anybody who lived under an oppressive regime would openly admit they fear it, for fear of the repercussion. Can you meaningfully distinguish those who genuinely don't feel any fear (because they're bold, or ignorant, or possibly both), and those who superficially state they don't fear their government?

A U.S. citizen that migrated from China has very little reason to self-censor or dissemble on this topic. After encountering this beguiling attitude in conversations with others, I sought out such a person, an acquaintance who was a Professor of linguistics, who became a U.S. citizen decades earlier and still had close contact. He confirmed it all. This topic has also been a minor obsession for me, and the reading I've done further confirms it. Even when the people might be aware of something their government has done, they feel protected, that the government is acting in their best interests. And that awareness of incidents is rare. I showed a video of Tianmen Square to a Chinese student I knew. Not only hadn't they known about the incident, but their response was, "oh, those people (protestors) shouldn't have been doing that."

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#537
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Beijing is notorious for its air pollution. It is a literal mask AFAICT, to block off pollutants

Since 2017 the air quality has been greatly improved for Beijing. I just spent about three weeks there and the sky is surprisingly blue

I was there for a week in November (from NE USA) and our group had respiratory issues with the air there. Shanghai later in the trip was much better. I know it used to be worse, but it still isn't what I'd call good.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#538
post #507
post #183

[flagged]

You've crossed back into nationalistic flamebait repeatedly in this thread, which we just recently asked you not to do. Would you please just stop posting generalized pejoratives about $NATION and $PEOPLE? In your case it's America and Americans, but it doesn't matter which particular nation someone has an issue with—it inevitably leads to increasingly low-quality and nasty internet discussion, which is just what we…

Sure dang, I'll stop.

I personally found is fascinating that a person from the USSR (famous for propaganda) had the insight and self awareness to say they're very aware that every country is a propaganda machine, though while I was in the US for 5 months last year I met many people who had no idea they're in one too.

I would say the same is true in Australia, and Canada (the other countries I've lived in)

At no point was I trying to say America is crap (like many people assumed) and I tried to say that on two separate occasions, but all the other comments just jumped back to "American isn't as bad as china" (which is unrelated to my insight above).

But yes, I'll stop.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#539
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, it's not an argument, it was a thing to point out, that this problem is not specific to non-democracies. The reason the example is from 100 years ago, is that we haven't really seen as serious a threat as that since then. The closest we've had in the western world since then, was AIDS in the 80's, and I don't think the response was all that top-notch in the first few years. But then, the disease speed o…

The closest I can think of might be Mad Cow Disease.

Good point! I think we can say the UK's response was, for some time after that began, less than exemplary.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#540
post #14

They already extended the holidays and I know a lot of manufacturers rely on pre and post Lunar production cycles. We are going to find out what happens when China goes offline which is not going to be pretty. I fully expect some products to run short and prices to double within days. I also think the Chinese govt is trying to throw money at this problem. They got caught mismanaging the epidemic and injecting money i…

At this point, small foreign business operating in China will go out of business due to supply chain shutdown and illiquidity. Mid sized businesses will have a huge one time cost/write off moving operations out of China. Large multinationals will move more parts of Chinese supplies to other countries. China law blog can put it better than I can: https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/02/whats-going-to-happen-w... https://…

>Large multinationals will move more parts of Chinese supplies to other countries.

The joke is, there is perhaps no point in the next 2 weeks. If the virus so far is as virulent as it seems, there's going to be alot more shutdown countries coming once the incubation periods run down.

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