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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#291

Post by koheripbal »

jmnicolas wrote: post #105
norrius wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given what appears to be exponential growth, the calculation seems to ignore potential future deaths in the currently known cases. Pardon the morbidity and cynicism, but maybe some of these 14628 people haven't had the time to die yet? Wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare deaths (305) to the number of people successfully recovered (348 as per the same page)? This gives the survivability rate of 53%, which does…

I'm pretty sure you die faster than you can recover from this thing. So we should see a better deaths / recoveries ratio in the coming weeks.

You are assuming that the data quality here isn't complete garbage.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#292

Post by koheripbal »

jmnicolas wrote: post #33
wwwtyro wrote: post #2

Here's a map with the latest coronavirus data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

According to your link the survivability rate is almost 98% (305 deaths for 14628 cases). (I'm trying to inject a bit of optimism here, people are so gloomy).

These data are likely a product of garbage in / garbage out.

Hospitals are turning away patients - most patients aren't having samples sent for DNA verification - many patients are too afraid to go to the hospital - etc...

We likely will not have a clear picture of survivability for some time.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#293

Post by himinlomax »

jmnicolas wrote: post #33
wwwtyro wrote: post #2

Here's a map with the latest coronavirus data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

According to your link the survivability rate is almost 98% (305 deaths for 14628 cases). (I'm trying to inject a bit of optimism here, people are so gloomy).

Even assuming the numbers are right and the virus does not evolve, survival may be that high for people who can benefit from intensive care. What happens when the healthcare system is overflowing with patients?

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#294

Post by joncrane »

mikorym wrote: post #192
toyg wrote: post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

My initial reaction to the article was that it doesn't sound like the cash injection has much to do with the corona virus. Isn't the reaction to the virus somewhat overblown? > adding the total liquidity in the banking system will be 900 billion yuan higher than the same period in 2019 after the injection In other words, 300 billion yuan less without the cash injection. I may be wrong, as I don't see the reaction to…

I got the same impresion.

It's impossible to know whether they expected to simply let those previous repo agreements expire or if they planned to renew them.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#295

Post by microcolonel »

pmohun wrote: post #284
microcolonel wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The estimate of likely infected people in China was somewhere between 37k and 130k as of January 25, and it is expected that the number of infected people will double roughly every six days, so assuming there has been no appreciable change to the pattern of spread, we can maybe back-of-the-napkin that somewhere around 75,000-280,000 people are probably infected.

This website provides daily updates on the spread of the virus: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Crucially, this lists the confirmed cases, different from the actual cases.

P.S. for those who are clearly disagreeing with me here, I would love to hear what you have to say, rather than just having my text become slightly grey.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#296

Post by milofeynman »

adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52
bane wrote: post #20

The Chinese government's response to this situation (after some initial dithering) has been to move swiftly with big moves. I suspect that the force that overcame the initial delays in local response were powerful central government actors who could some in and simply shut cities and entire areas down and not fool around. There appears to be at least one emergency prefab hospital with about 1600 beds under constructi…

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

Great point. The Original Comment seems to have forgotten that journalists were getting locked up for spreading "rumors" less than 2 weeks ago during a vital time in the spread.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#297

Post by siracusa23 »

leftyted wrote: post #269
siracusa23 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that's wrong, the Americans forced us to host your gulags in our countries, besides torture they were also doing human experimentation. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/inside-roman... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/15/cia-torture-...

The gulag hosted ~20 million people. How many people went through rendition? Your attempt to equate these things is frankly shocking.

Is this about numbers? Or the fact that both countries did something horrific?

How about how many wars the Americans started? How many people killed, left without homes? How about the fact that Americans bombed the Japanese? Why can't people accept that bad is bad no matter who does it or how many times they do it.

This is not you vs. me, democrats vs. republicans, conservative vs. liberals, Russia vs. US, it's not the divide and conquer of the American propaganda.

I'm not defending the USSR, Europe or US. I'm saying all are bad and all of them have done horrifying things, the only thing we can do is to hope that we can become better. And this can only be done if we stop saying "oh but he did it worse/first, mom" but understand that we need to do better.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#298

Post by learc83 »

norrius wrote: post #50
jmnicolas wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to your link the survivability rate is almost 98% (305 deaths for 14628 cases). (I'm trying to inject a bit of optimism here, people are so gloomy).

Given what appears to be exponential growth, the calculation seems to ignore potential future deaths in the currently known cases. Pardon the morbidity and cynicism, but maybe some of these 14628 people haven't had the time to die yet? Wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare deaths (305) to the number of people successfully recovered (348 as per the same page)? This gives the survivability rate of 53%, which does…

In addition to recovery taking much longer, there are likely far more than 15k people who have been infected but haven't been to the hospital since the majority of cases aren't serious.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#299

Post by milofeynman »

milofeynman wrote: post #296
adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

Great point. The Original Comment seems to have forgotten that journalists were getting locked up for spreading "rumors" less than 2 weeks ago during a vital time in the spread.

Source https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/23/following...

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#300

Post by Marsymars »

ulfw wrote: post #268
afarrell wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All the shopkeepers aren't from Beijing originally, so they close shop for two weeks and go back to their hometown. Sounds like an opportunity for someone to open some bagel shops.

Hm yea. Bagels aren't very popular in China. Or really outside the US.

Montreal would beg to differ.
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