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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#131

Post by panarky »

cagenut wrote: post #19
garaetjjte wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What will happen 17th?

according to various models the infection rate should shift from exponential growth to an s-curve function where growth rapidly falls off, the first stage of containment, somewhere around the 15th. the 17th is the monday after that, so many schools and business and cities are planning for everyone to just stay home until the 17th (at least).

Infections are increasing approximately 20% per day.

When you see the new daily infection rate drop to 10% or less then that's a pretty good signal that we're reaching the top of the S-curve and nearing containment.

The big question is if that will happen before healthcare and quarantine capacity is exceeded.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#132

Post by 01100011 »

QuesnayJr wrote: post #120
NotSammyHagar wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because ultimately it's likely we build unneeded infrastructure that is wasted, including useless companies. Then you still have to pay off those loans slowing growth afterwards. That might be companies that fail or banks with almost failing loans, retarding growth like in Japan for now decades, as well as governments having to reduce spending (or not stimulate) in the recession period because they had so much stimul…

This explanation doesn't really fit the evidence. China engaged in a giant stimulus in 2008-2009, and was rewarded with avoiding most of the impact of the financial crisis. I'm sure China builds some unneeded infrastructure, but they build needed infrastructure that's now beyond the ability of Western governments. New York can't even finish the Second Avenue Subway after 50 years.

You're arguing with an incomplete explanation of how many economists believe stimulus spending works. I'm no economist, but a Keynesian would, I think, say that government stimulus is fine when the economy and demand are lagging. Doing it when the economy is strong encourages capital misallocation and the problems OP mentioned.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#133

Post by 01100011 »

notyourwork wrote: post #49
bitxbit wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a way you’re assuming no inflation which has been the case for the past decade. BUT. What happens when China goes offline and takes low cost labor with it? For the record, I believe this situation will resolve within the month but it will certainly reveal global over-reliance on China (this is meant as a positive comment that China has been the single driving force behind economic recovery which they don’t get eno…

The lost lives of their blue collar work force deserve the credit.

Same with any country, I think.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#134

Post by [deleted] »

toyg wrote: post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

[deleted]

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#135

Post by [deleted] »

microcolonel wrote: post #126
pmorici wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NPR reporting from last night say's that HK is dealing with nearly 700 suspected cases. https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1223743600456060928

Daily reminder that the confirmed cases are limited by the capacity to confirm cases , not by the actual contagion .

[deleted]

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#136

Post by duxup »

bane wrote: post #20

The Chinese government's response to this situation (after some initial dithering) has been to move swiftly with big moves. I suspect that the force that overcame the initial delays in local response were powerful central government actors who could some in and simply shut cities and entire areas down and not fool around. There appears to be at least one emergency prefab hospital with about 1600 beds under constructi…

I suspect the fear comes from the fact that the response in the past was so poor...

While the central government likes / makes grand gestures... they've proven to be reactionary only, slow, and can't be trusted to be honest, and to some extent the local government isn't honest with the central government.

The track record is well established and I don't see much reason to believe that they've changed / the incentives for everyone are all wrong / aren't likely to change quickly in a non transparent system.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#137

Post by tanilama »

daenz wrote: post #31

Maybe this is demonstrates an immediate consequence of having a people (mainland China, not necessarily HK) that is governed primarily by fear: reactions of extreme subordination, which keep things running "smoothly" under normal conditions, can threaten the whole system to collapse under abnormal conditions.

Hong Kong has its own separate system from mainland China, and it had went through long protest last year.

So OP's friends leaving HK doesn't bear that much of an indication value anyway.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#138

Post by ohazi »

throwawayhhakdl wrote: post #32
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #25

Having lived in Beijing for 9 years, I’m glad I’m not there right now. Not because of a fear of getting sick, but of the sheer boredom of being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask. Heck, even going to the office is probably off limits right now.

The face masks aren’t especially effective for this disease

People are downvoting the parent, but he/she is correct. So many people misunderstand these masks.

Surgical masks protect other people from your coughing / breathing -- they do nothing for you.

N95 masks are notoriously difficult to actually fit correctly. A mask with a filter needs to be completely sealed around your face. You should not be able to get any airflow in from the sides. The elastic is usually too weak, the masks themselves are too lightweight, and they rarely have anything but paper touching your face, so you're not going to be able to get any sort of seal with them.

The only mask that has any hope of protecting the wearer against inhaling airborne particles is a 3M-style cartridge respirator that's fitted properly. The mask should be heavy, the part around your face should be silicone or rubber, and you should be sweating enough to lubricate the mask so that it acts like a suction cup around your face.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#139

Post by yorwba »

ithinkinstereo wrote: post #99
adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

There's a Chinese saying that's apt here; "山高皇帝远" which literally translates into "mountains are high, the emperor is far away." However, I disagree that this is solely unique to China. You see it in the west too. The water crisis in Flint, MI springs to mind.

Shortsighted politicians exist everywhere, but the political system determines what their short-term goals focus on.

In a centralized top-down system like China's, politicians advance their career by currying favor with their superiors by demonstrating plan fulfillment, and if they fail they'll try to fake the numbers to make it look like they succeeded. This affects mostly nationally visible metrics like GDP, poverty rate etc. I guess epidemics also fall into that category.

In a localized bottom-up system, politicians advance their career by currying favor with voters by distributing handouts, like farming subsidies, tax cuts or artificially low prices. The Flint water crisis was at least partially caused by politicians not wanting to improve the infrastructure, because the cost would have to be recouped by raising the water price, which would have been unpopular.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#140

Post by TheNorthman »

alasdair_ wrote: post #116
TheNorthman wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there any government whose narrative you trust? It seems to me that never trusting anything a governments because they have once [0] lied is a little extreme. In fact, I'm not sure I can name a country whose government hasn't lied in recent times. This would then extend to academia as well, since most research is in some way funded by the state. [0]: I know they have lied more than once. I'm not sure what a more…

I would trust the CDC’s numbers because I know of no incentive for them to lie and their numbers have generally been truthful in the past. In addition, any doctor at the CDC is free to say “these numbers are fraudulent” publicly without worrying they will be arrested. I would not trust a political party’s economy numbers without external verification, however, because a party has an incentive to lie.

> because I know of no incentive for them to lie

Their incentive to lie seems obvious to me. The US benefits from what hurts China. Besides, the CDC have been caught accepting millions of dollars from commercial interests ("Big pharma"), which obviously also plays a role in fear mongering.

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