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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#111

Post by bananabreakfast »

capableweb wrote: post #28
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #25

Having lived in Beijing for 9 years, I’m glad I’m not there right now. Not because of a fear of getting sick, but of the sheer boredom of being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask. Heck, even going to the office is probably off limits right now.

> being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask As someone who never been there (or in China for that matter), is "face mask" a synonym for something or you mean literally a face mask? Don't think it's mandatory to wear face masks, just that a lot of people do it, right? If someone knows better, please correct me

Synonym is the wrong word here. A synonym means another word that means exactly the same thing. So the synonym of a face mask would, by definition, also have to be a literal face mask.

You mean to ask if this is slang for something else.

Which, in this case, it is not. It's a mask over your face which is extremely common in China.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#112

Post by chongli »

jmnicolas wrote: post #11
howmayiannoyyou wrote: post #6

China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th. China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th. This is the current status quo. If the situation isn't controlled by Feb 13th you can kiss at least 1/3 of global GDP goodbye. And, don't get me started on possible outbreaks elsewhere.

Stop spreading FUD. There have been a couple hundred deaths. Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...

The number of deaths is growing exponentially. As of January 25th, there were 41 deaths total [1]. By January 26th that number had risen to 56 [2]. Now, on February 2nd the number is 304, an increase of 45 over the past 24 hours [3].

More people have died from this virus in the past 24 hours than all of 2019 and the 3 weeks in January prior to the 25th, combined. Now do you see why there is reason for alarm? There were only 1320 confirmed cases just over a week and a half ago, globally. Now the number has increased by 2604 in the past day!

[1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

[2] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

[3] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#113

Post by [deleted] »

blfr wrote: post #96
cambalache wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that China can only make wrong in your eyes. If it takes time to act it is because the system causes this failure. If the government acts swiftly, it is because they are in panic. If it does not solve the situation, of course because they have a terrible oppressive culture. If the problem is fixed. Of course, because these are one of the few advantages of having an authoritarian system. No matter what…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#115

Post by rasz »

bane wrote: post #20

The Chinese government's response to this situation (after some initial dithering) has been to move swiftly with big moves. I suspect that the force that overcame the initial delays in local response were powerful central government actors who could some in and simply shut cities and entire areas down and not fool around. There appears to be at least one emergency prefab hospital with about 1600 beds under constructi…

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/30/asia/chinese-health-care-...

"Wuhan's Communist Party chief Ma Guoqiang acknowledged that before mid-January, samples had to be sent to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) in Beijing. From mid-January, Wuhan was able to test about 300 cases a day"

Think about that one, does this sound like taking it seriously? "test about 300 cases a day" is a good way to doctor the number of infections.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#116

Post by alasdair_ »

TheNorthman wrote: post #108
totalZero wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is that the Chinese government didn't act swiftly, arrested people who initially spread information about the disease in Wuhan, failed to contain the situation, and has now allowed it to become a global problem. Due to the way China's government has lied in the past, I am hesitant to believe their numbers or their narrative until it can be confirmed by outside parties.

Are there any government whose narrative you trust? It seems to me that never trusting anything a governments because they have once [0] lied is a little extreme. In fact, I'm not sure I can name a country whose government hasn't lied in recent times. This would then extend to academia as well, since most research is in some way funded by the state. [0]: I know they have lied more than once. I'm not sure what a more…

I would trust the CDC’s numbers because I know of no incentive for them to lie and their numbers have generally been truthful in the past. In addition, any doctor at the CDC is free to say “these numbers are fraudulent” publicly without worrying they will be arrested.

I would not trust a political party’s economy numbers without external verification, however, because a party has an incentive to lie.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#117

Post by pmorici »

a_c wrote: post #91
daenz wrote: post #31

Maybe this is demonstrates an immediate consequence of having a people (mainland China, not necessarily HK) that is governed primarily by fear: reactions of extreme subordination, which keep things running "smoothly" under normal conditions, can threaten the whole system to collapse under abnormal conditions.

HK has a dozen confirmed cases. Shenzhen, the city bordering HK, has a hundred confirmed cases. HK had experienced SARS, and the magnitude of the epidemic, in terms of number of infected globally, has already exceeded that of SARS. Together with government's inaction (HK government is refusing to close down its border where 60s country or so are now blocking entry from China). HK's medical system is overwhelmed by ma…

NPR reporting from last night say's that HK is dealing with nearly 700 suspected cases.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1223743600456060928

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#118

Post by allovernow »

stapled_socks wrote: post #59
jmnicolas wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to your link the survivability rate is almost 98% (305 deaths for 14628 cases). (I'm trying to inject a bit of optimism here, people are so gloomy).

My interpretation would be that the rate of survival is 53%; 348/(305+348). People don't die immediately, the ones currently infected can go either to the "Recovered" figure or the "Deaths" figure. From the link above: 14628 are currently infected(?) 305 were infected and died 348 were infected and recovered

Thank you. I simply do not understand how calm and relaxed everyone is. The correct mortality rate is terrifying. People should be stocking up on more than just masks.

I'm not trying to fearmonger and I realize this is potentially in the same league as screaming fire in a very crowded theater. But we all are aware of the numbers, and even ignoring the fact that they're underreported, the current correctly calculated mortality rate is grave.

Now, given that this is still unfolding, it's possible that only those with weakened immune systems are dying, as usual. But even then at this point dead/recovered is a severe indicator. Plus rumor is R0 1-4 and it is likely more contagious than SARS - hell, look at what we do know about China's response; far more comprehensive and restricted than outbreaks past.

It's early for panic, but not too early to prepare. As soon as the public heard catches wind of just how significant this is, I guarantee stores will empty overnight.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#119

Post by ineedasername »

daenz wrote: post #31

Maybe this is demonstrates an immediate consequence of having a people (mainland China, not necessarily HK) that is governed primarily by fear: reactions of extreme subordination, which keep things running "smoothly" under normal conditions, can threaten the whole system to collapse under abnormal conditions.

Maybe outside of China we see it as "ruled by fear", but that's really not the case in China, at least for the majority: China doesn't try to make it's citizens afraid. Quite the opposite. Their modus operandi is "move along, nothing to see here, everything is fine." Indeed, that was their initial message to the public for this virus. So, the problem and partial cause of panic is when there is a problem that is very definitely not "nothing to see here", and the government is demonstrably, extremely wrong and perhaps incompetent. When so much is seen to be controlled by the government, a flaw in that armor is all the more worrying.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#120

Post by QuesnayJr »

NotSammyHagar wrote: post #79
QuesnayJr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this obsession with "artificial" stimulus. If the economy naturally grows at 2% a year, but "artificial" stimulus causes it to grow at 3% a year, why wouldn't you do it? It's like refusing to get vaccines because they are unnatural.

Because ultimately it's likely we build unneeded infrastructure that is wasted, including useless companies. Then you still have to pay off those loans slowing growth afterwards. That might be companies that fail or banks with almost failing loans, retarding growth like in Japan for now decades, as well as governments having to reduce spending (or not stimulate) in the recession period because they had so much stimul…

This explanation doesn't really fit the evidence. China engaged in a giant stimulus in 2008-2009, and was rewarded with avoiding most of the impact of the financial crisis.

I'm sure China builds some unneeded infrastructure, but they build needed infrastructure that's now beyond the ability of Western governments. New York can't even finish the Second Avenue Subway after 50 years.

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