Live data from Hacker News

Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

sciencemag.org

181–190 of 225 posts

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#181
This conspiracy idea is quite far fetched. And it was probably spread as fake news, by someone with a political agenda to smear the reputation of China worldwide. (And if you’ve been watching closely, this is a very well funded campaign, that has been very active for the past 3 years.)

But let’s try to think this through.

If they (China) were researching it, then it is possible that this could’ve accidentally escaped the lab. Although that is some serious professional incompetence. And if they are intelligent and skilled enough to work with dangerous diseases, then I’m sure they have proper containment and stringent decontamination processes in place.

However, if this was a bioweapon, then a few arguments fall apart.

(1) If they engineered it, then they should’ve had the genome already. Instead, they had to capture the strain, and sequence its genome, and it took them three weeks to complete the sequencing. And then, they shared it with the world, the CDC, the WHO, in order to help foreign countries contain it.

For comparison, the CDC took over 2 months to sequence the Ebola virus. The Chinese sequenced this virus in 3 weeks. Granted, technology and techniques improved in the intervening years.

So that begs the question: If this was a bioweapon, then why would they quickly share its genome with the world? Why not just keep it for themselves, while they work out some cure, and let the rest of the world flounder and die off?

Their strength comes from their economic engine, and their exports to the world. They can’t make things for foreign markets, if those other countries are dying from some bioweapon that was unleashed on the world.

(2) If this was a bioweapon, and then they ‘accidentally’ released it on themselves, which makes no sense, then what is the goal? Because the economic fallout from this thing will cause billions in economic damages. As well as potentially causing social instability, for a country that prizes stability over all else. And the political fallout will be even higher.

(3) The Chinese are not suicidal. They were attacked with biological and chemical warfare by the Japanese in the 1930s. They were threatened with nuclear annihilation by MacArthur (to drop 50 atomic bombs) during the Korean War in the 1950s, and were also likely subjected to biological warfare too. The rest of the Western world prefers to ignore this, but they can never forget, because their people actually died from biological warfare.

So given all that, they have first hand experience of what biological warfare will do. So if they are researching bioweapons, then I’m pretty certain that they will have stringent procedures in place to contain it.

(4) And then there is the most logical argument, that this is a very poor bioweapon.

The goal of a bioweapon is to maximize immediate casualties, while minimizing uncontrollable transmissions to others. Basically, there is no point in using a weapon, if it ends up killing yourself.

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From a fake account? No. From a new, anonymous account where I intend to post my opinions without them being tied to my identity. At least until I post enough for stylometric analysis to work...

Unfortunately, saying rational things about China—instead of demonizing it—can be seen as defending the Chinese government and bring a lot of grief in this current “Yellow Peril” environment.

China is literally ground zero for what will be a global pandemic if we do not contain it. I implore you not to bring nonsensical allegations of racism into this.

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know? I thought about your 'nonsense' and recalled something rather old in 'internet time'. Anyways, i just searched for russian bio lab accident and this came up first: https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/11/decades-after-deadly... I'm sure there is more to find about that, but for the purpose of rebutting your nonsense i deem it sufficient. What do i mean by that? The theories aren't unfounded when looking bac…

I don't get it. Why are people knee-jerk adverse to this idea? We're not arguing with flat earthers or moon landing skeptics. It's entirely plausible. With people putting their reputation on it, too. Dany Shoham (Israeli biological warfare expert) put his name on the line point this out before a lot of people. It's not out of the realm of possibility and shouldn't be disregarded out of hand like it has been. Could be…

The tricky part is that we have zero evidence. It’s not that it’s not a reasonable hypothesis, it’s that it’s nothing more than speculation. This is fine in general, but many people do not generally understand the difference between a hypothesis and pure speculation, and may attribute more weight to a guess than it deserves.

It is important to remember that there is zero evidence of this theory, and yet despite that it is spreading through the Internet populace faster than the virus itself.

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting, I visited it from IPs from all around the world through different desktop browsers and it's available everywhere BUT there is no author and no author bio. If that's (kind of) on purpose that's really weird, to suspend somebodies account but leave the article up and remove all the author references. Anybody from medium on hn :)?

At first it was like that for me too. After a reload, because trying to click on that Adrian Bond icon to see what else he posted, it's now gone completely like parent poster described. The funny thing about that is when you go to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology the geocoordinates there lead you into the same forest on all major mapping services, while the pictures are recent or even from th…

That's weird...it looks like an empty forest separating farmland.

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#185

I've more faith in the bat origin theory than the others so far. Don't know if the science is solid, but given how riddled bats are with all kinds of nasty stuff, you probably don't want to be eating that unless you're particularly keen on developing an exotic disease.

You can still have a man-made virus with the original source being bats.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavi...

If you're interested in the open speculation, this guy does a pretty good breakdown of all the talking points:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1221990534643929089.html

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#186
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get it. Why are people knee-jerk adverse to this idea? We're not arguing with flat earthers or moon landing skeptics. It's entirely plausible. With people putting their reputation on it, too. Dany Shoham (Israeli biological warfare expert) put his name on the line point this out before a lot of people. It's not out of the realm of possibility and shouldn't be disregarded out of hand like it has been. Could be…

The odds are fairly slim. Wuhan is a large Chinese city that has a greater population than most countries. There is going to be an (X) in Wuhan for any value of (X) anyone cares to name. The fog of uncertainty is still thick; nobody has much of an idea what is going on. Anyone claiming that they have a theory on where the virus came from is fantasising. The knee-jerk people probably don't want them drowning out a wea…

What is the probability that in Wuhan exists the only X in the vast country and Y happens only once in a decade or so

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#187

The idea of this being an engineered virus wittingly unleashed on the world by some malevolent Party conspirators strains credulity--the notion is preposterous, especially from a country as obsessed with internal stability as China. However, the Wuhan pathogen research laboratory is still a worthy source to consider relating to this virus. Accidents DO happen, and China has a history of making mistakes leading to dan…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22130806

Discussed in another thread last wek

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#188

The idea of this being an engineered virus wittingly unleashed on the world by some malevolent Party conspirators strains credulity--the notion is preposterous, especially from a country as obsessed with internal stability as China. However, the Wuhan pathogen research laboratory is still a worthy source to consider relating to this virus. Accidents DO happen, and China has a history of making mistakes leading to dan…

>The idea of this being an engineered virus wittingly unleashed on the world by some malevolent Party conspirators strains credulity--the notion is preposterous, especially from a country as obsessed with internal stability as China.

How about the idea that this is an engineered virus unwittingly unleashed on the world by some accident/incompetence?

If one reads the history of nuclear weapons/reactors, and how all kinds of BS, negligence, incompetence, has only by miracle spared us from major catastrophe at various times, one would consider what might happen with all those military virus labs...

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#189
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the rapidity with which the Harvard chemical-biologist was arrested after we received a sample and sequenced it (~36 hours), I think it is possible (possible! not likely!) that we engineered it , and they paid a researcher to give them a copy. * Some pretty heavy researchers in the US say that it (the virus) was not human-engineered. I find their reasoning spurious, but they know more than I do.

> Given the rapidity with which the Harvard chemical-biologist was arrested after we received a sample and sequenced it I'd love to read more. Do you have a link?

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/harvard-professor-char...

Re: Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

#190
post #84
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modified, not synthetic.

A couple of days ago I posted a link to the BLASTN sequence alignment between the 2003 SARS virus and the Wuhan virus in a comment on one of the other discussions here. You can see they are closely related, at about 88% sequence identity. There are point mutations spread more or less evenly over the entire genome. This is how evolution works on genomes, and basically rules out genetic engineering, since researchers w…

> Source: Go over to NCBI and do the alignment yourself, also am PhD biologist.

> PS: The amount of pseudoscience being peddled for attention or thrills in these threads is getting really worrying to me, I had expected something totally different from this community. :/

On the flip side, I've seen lots of "experts" chime in and say things that prove to be wrong. For example, during the early stages of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, I recall reading comments by lots of "experts" explaining how there's little to worry about and they referred to things like core catchers and all the other mechanisms that are supposed to protect a (modern) nuclear power plant in emergency. As is evident, much of their expertise did not apply and things that weren't supposed to go wrong went wrong.

I don't remember specific cases but I'm pretty sure I've witnessed a similar pattern over and over again here, and just seeing news of coronavirus outbreak immediately brought back memory of -- and prediction of -- experts chiming in telling people why it's nothing to be concerned about and why all the pop news scare is overblown. I'm getting kind of a dejavu feeling here.

Post reply on HN