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Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

biorxiv.org

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Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#91

Post by thu2111 »

madddiagnosis wrote: post #81
bawolff wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this is naive, but I would assume if it was a bio-weapon it would be a lot more deadly.

Viruses which kill too quickly don't spread widely enough to kill a lot of people. Good viruses kill after a few days of showing few (if any) symptoms so that they can maximise their spread. This is the difference between epidemic and pandemic viral contagions.

This virus spreads quickly (check) but has a mortality rate of 2%, mostly the old and already immunocompromised. If that's a bioweapon it's a pretty ineffective one.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#92

Post by rafaelm »

Some comments on this Biorxiv site from an epidemiologist: https://twitter.com/aetiology/status/1223328143647236097

"For non-scientists, if you see something posted from a site called BioRxiv, have some skepticism. It could be a fantastic paper! (I've used it!)--but. The site is for preprints, which means they haven't undergone peer review yet."

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#93

Post by fapjacks »

xvector wrote: post #63
jakewins wrote: post #44

So what is the probability that a lab that works with HIV normally, now working under extreme pressure, contaminated or mixed up a sample? And what is the probability that this is not just a third type of major coronavirus, but in fact a secret bioweapon? Knowing how commonly there are arguments about mixed up samples in the biolabs friends work in, I know where I would place my bets.

It would be a pretty lame bioweapon given how few people it’s killed.

Be advised that there are many posts on Chinese social media claiming the crematoriums are backlogged with people whose listed cause of death is "viral pneumonia" (or just "pneumonia") because hospitals are turning away so many and diagnostics are not catching up. Do not take statistical reporting for granted: The numbers are a best case scenario of definitive knowns. Also, bioweapons have as diverse a variety of use cases as any other class of weapon: They don't need to kill half of a population to be effective weapons.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#94

Post by [deleted] »

45ure wrote: post #87
mcantelon wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Twitter user seems legit. The Internet in general is full of BS yet we don't guilt-by-association the entire Internet.

We should question the veracity of the information presented. The nature of this fluid topic is a good example. I read the first part, a few days ago, and most of the information presented tallied with what was presented elsewhere. However, since then Dr. Eric Ding's profile has risen in prominence and the Twitter feed is commingling speculation with credentials, so it is entirely justified to question the validity o…

[deleted]

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#95

Post by thu2111 »

sam36 wrote: post #59

The amazing thing is last week someone on 4chan posted this: https://i.imgur.com/Jkq8tYK.png Which shows that the virus had been modified. 4chan wins once again at sleuthing.

Maybe I'm missing something obvious but nothing in that image shows the virus has been modified? Or at least the commentary doesn't say that.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#96

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

gamegod wrote: post #89
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if it's not extraordinary it's still going to require evidence, which without peer review we still pretty much have none.

This is evidence , but it requires corroboration from other evidence. Peer review doesn't provide additional evidence - it's just a sober second opinion that lends credence (or not) to the proposed evidence and interpretation. Just wanted to clarify the language here.

Totally right - and thank you for the clarification in language.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#97

Post by fapjacks »

hirenj wrote: post #58

This looks like a whole lot of rubbish to me. They're excited they managed to get blast hits for these short inserts. But in the spirit of open-mindedness, what do I need to be convinced this is even interesting? First I want to see where on gp120 these inserts align to. Are they receptor/carbohydrate binding regions? Where do they map to on the coronavirus? These structures are known, so I don't know why this isn't…

I appreciate your skepticism (and your sense of humor) but for the benefit of other readers, it is not like engineering a monkey tail onto an elephant and expecting the elephant to swing through the trees.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#98

Post by madddiagnosis »

thu2111 wrote: post #91
madddiagnosis wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Viruses which kill too quickly don't spread widely enough to kill a lot of people. Good viruses kill after a few days of showing few (if any) symptoms so that they can maximise their spread. This is the difference between epidemic and pandemic viral contagions.

This virus spreads quickly (check) but has a mortality rate of 2%, mostly the old and already immunocompromised. If that's a bioweapon it's a pretty ineffective one.

2% so far, it's very early in the lifecycle of this epidemic and most people go days without showing any symptoms.

The mortality rate will rapidly increase as it spreads to areas where it can overwhelm the local infrastructure. Not every country is capable of creating hospitals in 6 days like China, and China has a lot of experience responding to these crises since the Sars days.

We are only a month in, it's too early to really count mortality.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#99

Post by gus_massa »

jakewins wrote: post #44

So what is the probability that a lab that works with HIV normally, now working under extreme pressure, contaminated or mixed up a sample? And what is the probability that this is not just a third type of major coronavirus, but in fact a secret bioweapon? Knowing how commonly there are arguments about mixed up samples in the biolabs friends work in, I know where I would place my bets.

The article claims that the new coronavirus is an "hybrid" of an usual coronavirus with some parts of HIV. If you mix both virus in a bottle of water, you don't get the hybrid.

If both virus infect a cell simultaneously, there is a small possibility that something like this happens. I think it's so small that is not possible to do it in a laboratory even on purpose, and definitively not by accident but IANAB.

It is easier with other virus. For example mixing variants of flu, because they have (IIRC) 8 strands of DNA. There are avian, swine, human, others flu, and each of them has many subvariants. If some animal get infected with two variants at the same time, a cell may have a double infection and the viral offspring may have a mix.

But the mix is a mix of the strands of DNA, like 3 swine flu + 5 human flu. This is usual, but you must consider that there are millions and millions of animals in the wild and farms. It's more difficult to do it in a small lab, but IANAB.

The main difference is that the article claim that the usual coronavirus and the HIV parts are in a single strain, not a bunch of strains packed together.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#100

Post by drtillberg »

I generally agree with the folks who flagged this posting on HN (I didn't though) because the thought of ... airborne, highly contagious HIV in an early phase pandemic ... is a really very un-HN-like thought ... the mere theoretical possibility it could be true is the sort of thing I'd hope might inspire a generation to make our leaders globally take a time out on heated rhetoric and the ongoing technological arms race.
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