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Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

biorxiv.org

41–50 of 156 posts

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#41
post #4

A thread by an epidemiologist on the new results: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223305946723704832

This has been pointed out in previous threads, but this Twitter is full of alarmist unscientific BS and it appears to be spammed with some regularity on HN recently.

That largely depends on the credibility of the source of the Twitter posts. The author in the referenced thread does seem to be a legitimate commentator on the subject.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#44
So what is the probability that a lab that works with HIV normally, now working under extreme pressure, contaminated or mixed up a sample?

And what is the probability that this is not just a third type of major coronavirus, but in fact a secret bioweapon?

Knowing how commonly there are arguments about mixed up samples in the biolabs friends work in, I know where I would place my bets.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#46
post #16

to someone who doesn’t know anything about the relevant science (me) the use of the word “insertions” seems to imply this was engineered. Can someone who actually understands this explain what this document is saying?

Well, the conclusion of this paper is that the odds of this virus coming to be naturally are very small. Which is a very scientific way of saying "we think this was man-made". But, that is what the paper is saying. Extraordinary claims, extraordinary evidence is what I think. I feel the evidence here is quite small, but I'm not a bio-data-scientist.

Is it an extraordinary claim? The sequence matching should be easy to verify as the genome has been published. If the sequences are short or common enough maybe it would be a more likely coincidence.

That said: What are the priors on a "natural" virus erupting in the only city in China with a level 4 biohazard facility?

Source: http://english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2018/01/0...

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#47
post #4

A thread by an epidemiologist on the new results: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223305946723704832

What are the geopolitical ramifications if this is indeed a bioweapon?

I don't think it will be talked about in that way. Especially if this is a bioweapon created in China which accidentally escaped. No one wants the dirty laundry spilled of all the countries who are doing bioweapon research. China is too powerful economically and surely has too much dirt on everyone else to go down alone. So I believe the official position will be that it's either not engineered at all ("inconclusive"), or just an unfortunate accident related to legitimate non-weapon research. Worst case scenario is US, EU, etc. do a little finger wagging that China needs to "stop eating bats" and then it will be let go. Of course, that's just the official/public position.

Re: Scientists claim to find HIV virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov [pdf]

#49
post #8

I thought detecting intelligent design in the genetic code was impossible and bad science.

Detecting intelligent design in things is done all the time. Teacup dachshunds are intelligently designed. So's corn and broccoli. Throwing your hands up and saying "God must've done it!" when you don't have an immediate explanation and can't be bothered to do some research into one is the bad science part.

Please don't feed egregious comments by replying. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.

A religious flamewar on top of whatever else we've got here is the last thing this thread needs!

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