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California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

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Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#191
This is a great read for anyone who wants to learn more about how we got here: https://www.amazon.com/Neighborhood-Defenders-Participatory-...

Katherine Levine Einstein was on The Weeds podcast a few weeks ago and gave a really good summary of her findings. She doesn't have an answer, but it at least frames the situation in a way that seems solvable.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6VfqIzzoOlYtkuKvwGDq1K

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It’s unfortunate that the state senate doesn’t seem to want to treat the housing shortage with the urgency that it deserves. The state senators are probably making quite a bit of money off this housing shortage that they wouldn't make with an adequate housing supply on the market.

It's much likelier that they are responding to the voters that have the time and money to make their reelection difficult.

Okay, change "state senators are probably making quite a bit of money off this housing shortage" to "state senators are probably being awarded with a lot of power by supporting this housing shortage." Decision-making on the basis of wanting to be powerful is certainly not better than decision-making on the basis of wanting to be wealthy.

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you convince the opponents of SB50 to come around?

Pay them more money than the other guys are paying them.

Who are the "other guys" here? What does "pay them money" mean?

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#194
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody has ever lost a re-election race for SF district supervisor. It’s effectively a lifetime appointment.

This November a supervisor will lose re-election, since both the current incumbent Ahsha Safaí (who supported SB 50 as well as housing developments in his district) and the previously termed-out John Avalos (who opposed SB 50) are running for re-election in District 11 (Excelsior and Ingleside).

I think "re-election" generally refers specifically to an incumbent winning an election, rather than just any time someone wins more than one election.

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#195
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the environmentalists that I know are very much in favor of increasing housing density as long as it isn't in their neighborhood.

I don't think that's unique to environmentalists, turns out a big subset of everyone is selfish like that.

Yes, it may be selfish, but for environmentalists it is selfish and hypocritical. I'm specifically looking at the wealthy, anti-growth, green community on the SF Peninsula.

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#196
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I feel really sorry for the retired person sitting on millions of dollars of equity. Real sob story. Why not just give the option to defer increases in property taxes? It makes zero sense to give tax breaks to people who won the housing lottery.

Well, I don't have the feelings of "envy" that you do. The fact is, there's little he can do with his "millions of dollars of equity" unless he moves far away from family, friends, and social network. It's cruel to force people to move. I'm not envious or cruel, so I support Prop 13.

Anyone in this situation can easily take out a home equity loan to pay the taxes and come out way ahead. Your assertion that the higher taxes would force them to move is wrong.

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#197
post #14

Well the only solution is a ballot initiative to repeal prop 13. That will change things.

Prop 13 was created because it was forcing people out of their houses because of inflation property values on paper. That is detrimental.

You shouldn't scrap it completely; you should limit it to primary residences (spend more than half the year there). That would get rid of some of the worse issues.

It shocks me every time I hear fellow left-of-center people talk about scrapping Prop 13, but then also rail against gentrification or some other issues. Absent Prop 13, people would literally be forced from their homes from high taxes.

Prop 13 was a response to the inflation of the 1970s that drove asset and investment prices higher.

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#198

Here's the voting breakdown: https://legiscan.com/CA/rollcall/SB50/id/910526

Yea: 18, Nay: 15: Not Voting: 6 The measure fails despite more Yea than Nay votes. The California State Senate has 40 seats and always require 21 votes to pass. Vacancies (currently 1), absences and abstentions don't appear to affect the denominator of the 51% threshold. As a result, Not Voting is essentially a disguised no vote.

Not Voting is essentially a disguised no vote.

This is such a lame rule. People wanting to vote no should have to say so and vacancies shouldn't make it harder for bills to pass.

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#199
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Principled is a way of making it sound less terrible than 'restrained'. California is a perfect example of what happens when you let environmentalists handle housing policy, the poor suffer because environmentalism is classism in disguise in these social contexts.

Are Napa, Atherton, and Malibu filled with environmentalists? I'm so confused by your reaction, are there specific housing policies that are focused on the environment that have had bigger effects than things like prop 13? or cities with 30k jobs in a year but 300 units of housing (looking at you, mountain view)?

The endangered species act probably had 10x the effect on stifling building as Prop 13. Can you imagine a project like Foster City happening in the current environment?

https://www.fostercity.org/community/page/creation-foster-ci...

It takes Palo Alto 30 years to do flood mitigation because of a couple frogs in the creek.

If Mountain View needs housing, make more land. It will never happen because there are always myriad obstacles to building.

https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/09/30/landfill-and-liquefact...

Look how much of the city of SF was built on landfill. When was the last time a major bay area development was done on reclaimed land?

Re: California's housing bill SB 50 has died in the state Senate

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can’t be passed at a local level without CEQA review and a torrent of unending lawsuits. That’s why it needs to happen at a state level.

That’s not true. Any city in California has total authority to adjust their zoning code. Cities change zoning as a matter of routine business. The reason cities have not done anything constructive is each individual small government is held hostage by its own incumbent land owners.

They can do it, it takes 8-10 years. Look at the eastern neighborhoods plan in SF, it literally took 20 years. Part of that is shitty nimby neighbors, part of that is area plans are able to be litigated under CEQA, which Is basically guaranteed, and it adds 4-8 years to an area plan project. My point is that it’s literally illegal to do, but it’s functionally impossible, or at least extremely difficult and it takes a very very long time. Ballot box rezoning is not subject to CEQA and therefore can pass quicker (it’s how JJJ skipped CEQA review in LA) but that’s a whole other can of worms.
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