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Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

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Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#31

Post by sanxiyn »

allovernow wrote: post #25
Reason077 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was established pretty early that mortality is quite low (3-10X lower than SARS?), however it also seems to be transmitted more easily.

I don't want to alarm anyone but the WHO posted to Twitter that while there are 100 or so deaths, there are 700ish in critical condition. The final numbers aren't even in yet. That'd be a 20% serious hospitalization proportion, but I'm not sure if that's the right way to make such a calculation - you may need to adjust the probability based on total uninfected population or something Bayesian like. Edit: it was not t…

China CDC official numbers are 170 dead and 1370 critical among 7711, as of 30th 00:00.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#32

Post by mytailorisrich »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #28
eugenijusr wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a Twitter thread from an expert with thoughts on what we'll need to do if it's not contained: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056

It’s so infuriating to try to read that great info in a million disjointed tweets. I don’t get Twitter character limits at all in the year 2020.

It's so infuriating to see people using Twitter for what it's not, and also in this case for causing undue worry.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#33

Post by akiselev »

mikejb wrote: post #22
netsharc wrote: post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

> the German man [...] said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Unfortunately, this isn't a valid assumption. Lots of people come in to work sick - just yesterday we had to ask our boss to send someone home because they showed up to work caughing and sneezing all day (Today, two other coworkers aren't coming in because they're not feeling…

Also, just today there are reports [1] they released a 78 year old with both diabetes and hypertension - two of the six risk factors named so far - after he tested positive for nCoV-2019, went into critical condition, and fully recovered & tested negative.

Even for the elderly who have serious complicating health conditions, it's probably not a death sentence (unless you are immunocompromised). It's just a problem given how transmissible and sneaky this virus is.

[1] http://society.people.com.cn/n1/2020/0130/c1008-31564652.htm...

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#34

Post by GistNoesis »

hanniabu wrote: post #20
contravariant wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.

How do you figure that? Going off this source I see 170 deaths and 133 recovered. So of those 303 that have been infected with it, 170 have died which is 56%. You can't count the other 7783 that are currently infected since we haven't seen their outcome yet. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

This is not the right way of counting it. If it takes 40 days to be declared fully recovered, the recovered number is going to stay low at least 40 days (even though the people on their way to full recovery will most likely survive), while the death number will be increasing from the pool of people which became infected later.

To count it properly you need to follow what happened to people infected at the same date.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#35

Post by squarefoot »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #28
eugenijusr wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a Twitter thread from an expert with thoughts on what we'll need to do if it's not contained: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056

It’s so infuriating to try to read that great info in a million disjointed tweets. I don’t get Twitter character limits at all in the year 2020.

Probably it's just the wrong tool for this job.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#38

Post by celticninja »

netsharc wrote: post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

It's probably more dangerous for older and younger people. So whilst many will be ok, due to its rapid contagion even if it is only a death rate of 0.01% that could be a lot of people.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#39

Post by Galanwe »

I see a lot of people discussing the fatality rate, and trying to lower the importance of being infected based on that.

We should keep in mind that "surviving" the virus does not mean you will live happily ever after.

A lot of SARS patients that "recovered" ended up with lung or kidney disease afterward.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#40

Post by bad_user »

netsharc wrote: post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

You can't extrapolate from a single individual.

This coronavirus is said to be very similar with SARS from 2002-2003, which had a mortality rate of 11%.

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