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Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

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11–20 of 85 posts

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#11
post #8

Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...

The virus changes rapidly, not unlike the flu. A vaccine isn't likely to be effective to eradicate it, and it will likely stay around as a permanent epidemic like the flu or HIV. Virulence can increase or decrease randomly in the future, but the spread doesn't seem like it can be contained, since a perfect quarantine can't be maintained at this scale. We'll have to live with a new virus and pay the price of some natu…

Polio also changes rapidly (it's faster than HIV), but we are nearing polio eradication with vaccine. Relationship between vaccine and mutation is complex.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#12

In some ways that's positive. If the number of cases is higher than thought, then the deadliness is lower.

That depends. They just may not be showing symptoms yet. If that's the case then these are lagging indicators of what's to come. There could be thousands that have the virus and won't start to show it for another few days. And those would have been interacting with others that could catch it and might not show it for a week or so.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#13

Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...

> How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic... From this article: “If the vaccine appears effective and safe in a number of animal species, it will go into clinical trials on humans. This takes at least one year even if expedited,” Yuen said.

Is that including production? Or just getting approval?

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#14
post #11
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The virus changes rapidly, not unlike the flu. A vaccine isn't likely to be effective to eradicate it, and it will likely stay around as a permanent epidemic like the flu or HIV. Virulence can increase or decrease randomly in the future, but the spread doesn't seem like it can be contained, since a perfect quarantine can't be maintained at this scale. We'll have to live with a new virus and pay the price of some natu…

Polio also changes rapidly (it's faster than HIV), but we are nearing polio eradication with vaccine. Relationship between vaccine and mutation is complex.

I didn't know it changed, let alone that fast. Really makes it all the more impressive.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#15
post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

It was established pretty early that mortality is quite low (3-10X lower than SARS?), however it also seems to be transmitted more easily.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#16
post #8

Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...

The virus changes rapidly, not unlike the flu. A vaccine isn't likely to be effective to eradicate it, and it will likely stay around as a permanent epidemic like the flu or HIV. Virulence can increase or decrease randomly in the future, but the spread doesn't seem like it can be contained, since a perfect quarantine can't be maintained at this scale. We'll have to live with a new virus and pay the price of some natu…

Does immunity still hold for the changed virus?

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#17
post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.

It's ~20% "severe" plus fatal, per China CDC. Since many people who would end up dead is currently not dead, in-progress fatality rate is not very informative.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#18
post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.

The numbers published so far are probably biased to the high side because only serious cases seek treatment.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#19
post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.

How do you get to that number?

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#20
post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.

How do you figure that? Going off this source I see 170 deaths and 133 recovered. So of those 303 that have been infected with it, 170 have died which is 56%. You can't count the other 7783 that are currently infected since we haven't seen their outcome yet.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

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