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Home Price-to-Income Ratios

jchs.harvard.edu

41–50 of 165 posts

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#41
post #27
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. Without factoring in interest rates, this doesn’t really tell us much about how affordability has changed.

The cost of the home is normally quoted in dollars today (what the seller receives), not the total dollars you will pay on your mortgage. So interest rates don't have much to do with affordability.

[deleted]

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#42
post #4

Comparing income vs median sales price across time isn’t quite as interesting as income vs. total monthly payment (principal + interest).

yes, but in many desirable areas a significant portion of buyers are cash only buyers whose monthly payment is $0 (other than property taxes).

Intuitively, I would say the number all cash buyers is a pretty small number in every market. Especially in a low interest rate environment.

Most people with the means to pay cash for a property would likely be savvy enough to understand that that they would be better off getting a jumbo mortgage at 3.25% and deploying that capital at a higher rate elsewhere.

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#43

Over 8x seems to be a CA thing mostly (one tile in Oregon bordering CA). Wonder if we can thank prop 13 for that? (Frozen property tax that constrains supply and encourages ani-development stance by removing the tax consequences of appreciating property)

Prop 13 just removes property tax consequences driving transactions, not housing price concerns of anti-development / anti-density owners.

IF you drive those owners out via property tax increases, you have new owners just as concerned with the same anti-density drivers, maybe even more because they're in even greater debt at a higher price and can less absorb a feared price decrease.

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#44

Say what you will about Texas government, but they know how to stay out of people's way and let housing supply keep up with demand efficiently. California on the other hand, is absolutely pathetic when it comes to this. So absurd watching a state whose booming economy is funneling most of that money to property owners pockets. A huge and abject failure that will be in future economics textbooks as the example of how…

By far the majority of renters I know in CA, in SF and Santa Monica, have largely abandoned any hope of homeownership and live incredibly spendy lifestyles while they can afford to be in the area. Eventually, they will wise up, move out of their expensive rentals and turn frugal - likely outside of these cities with a good possibility of leaving the state. In their absence, new young folks in their high-earning high-…

Most of the renters I know in the bay area rent a house with 3-4 roommates and pay reasonable rent with that split ($1400/month -> $1900/month each for a room in the house).

Then saving as much as possible and hoping stock or RSUs will get you the rest of the way there to buying something (or buying a 1 or 2 bedroom for ~one million once you find an SO and working from there).

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#45
post #27
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. Without factoring in interest rates, this doesn’t really tell us much about how affordability has changed.

The cost of the home is normally quoted in dollars today (what the seller receives), not the total dollars you will pay on your mortgage. So interest rates don't have much to do with affordability.

The dollars don't really matter though because the majority of people don't actually have that money.

The majority of people base their housing budget on the monthly payment they can afford.

When interest rates are low, people can afford higher principal values.

When interest rates go up, the amount of a monthly budget that can go toward principal goes down.

Housing prices will tend to fluctuate to match what people can afford, and what people can afford is determined by their monthly payment.

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#46
post #34
post #24

I almost don't want to buy property as a protest to the horrible policies we have regarding basic necessities. Why should property owners be entitled to a major portion of my productivity/success? I'll rent the cheapest apartment I can find until the next housing crash or we have some sensible policy put through that negates the investment aspect of housing.

Is property ownership a basic necessity though? Or is its prevalence as an ideal a product of a burgeoning middle class through the last century? I understand it's not even so common (or common as a goal) now in continental Europe, they think it's some silly English thing to care so much about home ownership.

It absolutely is a basic necessity unless you wish to remain a serf for life.

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#47
post #34
post #24

I almost don't want to buy property as a protest to the horrible policies we have regarding basic necessities. Why should property owners be entitled to a major portion of my productivity/success? I'll rent the cheapest apartment I can find until the next housing crash or we have some sensible policy put through that negates the investment aspect of housing.

Is property ownership a basic necessity though? Or is its prevalence as an ideal a product of a burgeoning middle class through the last century? I understand it's not even so common (or common as a goal) now in continental Europe, they think it's some silly English thing to care so much about home ownership.

When rent is close to or even greater than a mortgage (because the RE market is essentially seized) then I’d say people are having difficulties finding a place to live. Having a place to live absolutely is a necessity. Does no one any good to have people commuting en masse.

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By far the majority of renters I know in CA, in SF and Santa Monica, have largely abandoned any hope of homeownership and live incredibly spendy lifestyles while they can afford to be in the area. Eventually, they will wise up, move out of their expensive rentals and turn frugal - likely outside of these cities with a good possibility of leaving the state. In their absence, new young folks in their high-earning high-…

> supply fresh, gullible, overpaid talent, working not just to pay high rents but high everything, including state income tax, while saving very little IDK, most people in know in California seem to be saving 30-50% of their post tax income. That's clearly not the case anywhere else in the world.

That's great, but maybe you know exceptionally high earners with good money sense?

Or maybe I just know exceptionally low earners with poor money sense.

Given the constant furor surrounding housing affordability in California's desirable cities, I'm leaning towards the former.

Re: Home Price-to-Income Ratios

#50
post #34
post #24

I almost don't want to buy property as a protest to the horrible policies we have regarding basic necessities. Why should property owners be entitled to a major portion of my productivity/success? I'll rent the cheapest apartment I can find until the next housing crash or we have some sensible policy put through that negates the investment aspect of housing.

Is property ownership a basic necessity though? Or is its prevalence as an ideal a product of a burgeoning middle class through the last century? I understand it's not even so common (or common as a goal) now in continental Europe, they think it's some silly English thing to care so much about home ownership.

Australian tax law is incredibly geared towards home ownership, and the culture of owning your home is very, very strong. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Dream.

Personally, most of the people in my age cohort (mid 20s) who've bought homes, have bought in areas considerably further away from the city than they were raised.

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