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Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

cicero.oslo.no

201–210 of 221 posts

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the CO2 is produced in China and India so I doubt the conversation in the USA will be even relevant.

CO2 doesn't decay in the short term so talking about current production is meaningless. You have to consider cumulative emissions [0] if you want to talk about fairness. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/10/Cumulative-CO2-tr...

These are cumulative figures since 1751. In other words over 200 years of emissions before anyone knew what the consequences would be, and decades after that when the consequences weren’t widely understood. At least current figures are fair in the sense of accounting for who’s making it worse.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>even induce net cooling if we feel we have overshot the ideal atmospheric carbon level. We’re currently at ~415ppm and that this is the highest the atmospheric level has been in the entire history of humankind. Not human civilisation; humankind. There’s no future scenario where we achieve neutrality and decide the atmospheric co2 concentration is ‘ideal’. Apologies for sniping a single snippet of your post, but this…

I appreciate the passion in your view but this is not a wise way to think about it. Currently, the science is not settled on whether warming has so far been net-good or net-bad. Everything in life is a trade-off: when the temperature rises, there are more deaths due to extremely high temperatures, but less deaths due to extremely low temperatures. (This is just an analogy, there are countless actual examples of trade…

>Currently, the science is not settled on whether warming has so far been net-good or net-bad.

When you only have a single Petri dish in which to make observations, and you also happen to eat your lunch out of that same dish, waiting for the science to lock into even greater certainty than that which has been established over the last fifty years or so is a less wise way to approach the matter. Observations of biodiversity loss are, for me, sufficient to move beyond the debating and towards the changing phase.

>I'm far more concerned about the effects of air pollution, acidification etc than a slight increase in temperatures (do not misinterpret: I say more concerned, both are concerning)

Also greatly concerning, but elements of the same whole which needs to be addressed. I think we’re on the same page here - my overall position is that singular focus on targeted solutions for only one aspect of the problem ignores the wider picture and will likely lead to second-order effects which cannot be foreseen.

CO2 as far as air pollution goes it is a nasty topic also. We’re starting to understand the impact of CO2 on human cognition at the local scale. If we consider that the removal of lead from petrol was linked to a significant down-turn in human aggression, what’s the world going to look like if the entire population runs 24/7 with the equivalent of a morning headache, effectively dropping the global IQ by a significant amount?

> Homo sapiens is extremely young, we are born of an ice age. 415ppm is among the lowest CO2 concentrations of all time, ever.

From an anthropogenic POV I’m not sure how this is a good thing. It’s higher than its ever been in the period that allowed humans to develop.

That’s assuming we’re talking about humankind and society as the thing we’re really seeking to save here.

We could also talk about biodiversity, but then the rate of change is probably a more significant element than the resting level. We’re spiking the level at a rate only previously seen during mass extinction events, and it follows that if we did want to draw back down to a lower level again for the purpose of allowing life to flourish again it probably couldn’t be at the same rate.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whenever this point is brought up it’s suspiciously blind to the concept of per-capita emissions. China and India have enormous populations. Their per-capita emissions are low. Unless you’re arguing a position that some folks in the world are inherently more deserving of a better quality of their life beyond mere circumstance, it doesn’t make sense to raise the ‘per-nation’ measure of emissions over the per-person me…

There are also issues of how to account for the same set of carbon emissions. Suppose a Chinese factory uses electricity supplied by coal to manufacture a product. The product is shipped to the United States aboard a Korean container ship before being shipped by diesel train to Seattle, where it is delivered to a retailer by truck, purchased, plugged into the wall and powered by a combination of hydroelectric and nat…

For sure, and ‘emitter pays’ is difficult to account since monitoring is required and not really feasible.

It works if everyone is honest, but when there’s financial incentive at local and global level to be dishonest, the outcome is predictable.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate the passion in your view but this is not a wise way to think about it. Currently, the science is not settled on whether warming has so far been net-good or net-bad. Everything in life is a trade-off: when the temperature rises, there are more deaths due to extremely high temperatures, but less deaths due to extremely low temperatures. (This is just an analogy, there are countless actual examples of trade…

>Currently, the science is not settled on whether warming has so far been net-good or net-bad. When you only have a single Petri dish in which to make observations, and you also happen to eat your lunch out of that same dish, waiting for the science to lock into even greater certainty than that which has been established over the last fifty years or so is a less wise way to approach the matter. Observations of biodiv…

> Observations of biodiversity loss are, for me, sufficient to move beyond the debating and towards the changing phase.

There's a lot wrong here.

(a) Over the past two centuries, we've been doing hundreds of crazy new things we've never done before. Correlation =/= causation: you can't just assume biodiversity loss is mostly caused by atmospheric carbon (btw: it's not)

(b) You're painting me as a caricature that has no link to reality. I'm not "waiting for science to lock" and spending my time "debating" instead of taking action, I've been working on clean energy development&commercialization for almost my entire career, and it is my primary long term focus in life.

That being said, I think there's very good reason for other people to spend time debating these issues instead of just rallying for radical political fixes to CO2 emissions. Like I've been trying to explain, the science is not at all settled on the subtleties of what we should do long term.

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> Also greatly concerning, but elements of the same whole which needs to be addressed. I think we’re on the same page here - ... effects which cannot be foreseen.

I completely agree with you here - you're absolutely right.

You also bring up very good points about why increased CO2 is nasty - these are accurate and CO2 is fundamentally a toxic gas so of course I'm also leaning towards the "the ideal level is probably below today's level" side - but I don't know yet. With so many different factors to consider, we can't just look at any one thing like human cognition and ignore the other pros / cons.

> That’s assuming we’re talking about humankind and society as the thing we’re really seeking to save here.

I don't think we need to "save" humankind or society (or the planet) - all three of those things are extremely resilient. Some portion of humans will survive just about anything with maybe the exception of a nasty gamma ray blast.

My concern is that GHG emissions will probably cause countless millions of avoidable deaths, negatively affect billions of human lives and cost us trillions of dollars long term in addition to ruining the natural environment and biodiversity.

This is, however, a slow process compared to a human lifetime. It's a really slow, big problem that will do a lot of damage if we don't focus on solving it before it becomes even worse.

> We could also talk about biodiversity

I'm very unsure whether GHG emissions are a leading cause of biodiversity loss in recent years. We do so much other bullshit (global shipping alone basically destroyed the natural barriers between ecosystems) and have already plunged nature into a mass extinction before the industrial revolution even began iirc

There's a lot of things humans do that cause extinctions. We should probably be addressing all of them.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Currently, the science is not settled on whether warming has so far been net-good or net-bad. When you only have a single Petri dish in which to make observations, and you also happen to eat your lunch out of that same dish, waiting for the science to lock into even greater certainty than that which has been established over the last fifty years or so is a less wise way to approach the matter. Observations of biodiv…

> Observations of biodiversity loss are, for me, sufficient to move beyond the debating and towards the changing phase. There's a lot wrong here. (a) Over the past two centuries, we've been doing hundreds of crazy new things we've never done before. Correlation =/= causation: you can't just assume biodiversity loss is mostly caused by atmospheric carbon (btw: it's not) (b) You're painting me as a caricature that has…

With you on all points. Sorry for the caricature, wasn't intended as a personal judgement.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're at historically normal levels of warming. Misleading. You have to appeal to pre -history to find temperature levels similar to current. > Eventually we'll plunge into another glacial period, and no amount of CO2 will stop it. Eventually, i.e. 10's or 100's of thousands of years, if CO2 levels revert to preindustrial. You are appealing to timescales of thousands of years, but the timescale relevant to the prob…

The early Holocene does predate the alphabet, but it's only 6,000 years ago, a blink of an eye geologically speaking. There were also several cooling and warming episodes in the interim since then, with the Minoan, Roman, and Medieval Warm periods all exceeding modern temperatures. Historically, warm climate has correlated with boom times for civilization and cold periods have brought famine. See research below: (Not…

From the abstract: During peak warmth, summer temperatures were 7 °C warmer than today as more solar radiation and warm water reached the Arctic. However, Early Holocene warming was much slower than today.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#207

The best and cheapest way to capture carbon is to plant trees. Lots of them.

a hectare of trees captures 1 to 10 tonnes of CO2 per year (http://www.sicirec.org/definitions/carbon-capture). That's about 7500 square meters of forest per person (assuming 11 tons per person per year). It's theoretically doable, but would require enormous forests.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're at historically normal levels of warming. Misleading. You have to appeal to pre -history to find temperature levels similar to current. > Eventually we'll plunge into another glacial period, and no amount of CO2 will stop it. Eventually, i.e. 10's or 100's of thousands of years, if CO2 levels revert to preindustrial. You are appealing to timescales of thousands of years, but the timescale relevant to the prob…

The early Holocene does predate the alphabet, but it's only 6,000 years ago, a blink of an eye geologically speaking. There were also several cooling and warming episodes in the interim since then, with the Minoan, Roman, and Medieval Warm periods all exceeding modern temperatures. Historically, warm climate has correlated with boom times for civilization and cold periods have brought famine. See research below: (Not…

Global average temperatures 6000 years ago were 0.5 °C warmer than baseline (1961-1990 average), now it's 1.1 °C. Historical warm periods were local, and global average temps did not exceed current temperatures. (Also, modern is a weasel word here -- you could pick e.g. 1920 and be correct).

Even if warming stopped now, Arctic and Antarctic would continue to melt for decades to come. Rate of change is key.

Your reference is also local (to the arctic), not global.

Again, what argument are you making here?

Is it: 1: It was warmer in the past / 1a: but nothing bad happened / 1b: therefore current warming is not due to human activity / 2: therefore there is no need to reduce CO2 levels.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, CO2 taxes would have to exceed $300/ton for new nuclear plants to pencil out, vs. new gas combined cycle plants. This means nuclear is an extremely poor way of reducing CO2 emission here. There's a vast array of alternatives that become viable at much lower CO2 taxes. It's not climate friendly to be choosing uneconomical approaches. It's almost as if you're using climate as a rationalization for a position…

That feeling when you work to improve deployment of a 24/7 low-footprint energy source that previously scaled at 20 GWe/yr and emits a mere 12 gCO2eq/kg and someone tells you that you're delusional. :o Just FYI I got into nuclear specifically for climate reasons. Climate has been the goal from before I knew what nuclear reactors really were. The assumption that all new nuclear plants in the US will be as bad as the m…

We have to go with the data we have. Nuclear has a long history of promising more than it delivered, when it comes to cost. Investors can't ignore this. And I can't ignore it either, no matter how much you want yet another do over. All the "but next time will be different" doesn't change that.

Nuclear's competitors don't have to resort to this increasingly desperate salesmanship. Renewable installations come in within 10% of initial cost estimates. They're fundamentally easier technologies to plan, work with, and deliver. Screw up 1% of the module installs in a PV field and your output is down 1%. Screw up 1% of the concrete pours, or 1% of the welds, in a nuclear plant, and it's world of hurt time. The complexity and interdependency of big plants means they are going to be difficult and expensive to build.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#210
post #144
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The technical challenge right now is efficient C02 capture. We've largely shown that long-term C02 sequestration should work. However, we still don't have a ton of ways to capture carbon at scale that don't involve significant energy expenditures. The whole system needs to be carbon negative to work ..." Thank you for this interesting contribution ... I agree that the full-lifecycle accounting of CO2 and the require…

You don't actually sequester C02 in gaseous form when you do geologic carbon sequestration. First off, even the simplest methods wind up with it dissolved in water. You basically can't just inject gaseous C02 into the ground and have it remain a gas. The rocks you're injecting it into are filled with water and it's highly soluble in water. Under certain conditions, you can inject liquid C02 and actually displace the…

In general, agreed, though our deep underground storage is limited.

We could create more such sites at great expense after we run out of natural sites and abandoned mines.

Have to be also very careful to not break underground water reservoirs.

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