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Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

cicero.oslo.no

141–150 of 221 posts

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#141
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear is already viable in countries with sane regulatory environments (France, and hopefully China, given how fast they’re ramping up). France: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan... "A third reactor at the site, an EPR unit, began construction in 2007 with its commercial introduction scheduled for 2012. As of 2019 the project is three times over budget and years behind schedule." China:…

> reality Between 1975 and 1988 the world added 250 GW of carbon-free nuclear generation. That's 20 GWe/year. https://www.iaea.org/resources/databases/power-reactor-infor...

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Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#142
post #112
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is already viable in countries with sane regulatory environments (France, and hopefully China, given how fast they’re ramping up). The fact that the US market structure and regulators led to unsafe and unprofitable power plants has little to do with the underlying technology.

> Nuclear is already viable in countries with sane regulatory environments (France, and hopefully China, given how fast they’re ramping up). France: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan... "A third reactor at the site, an EPR unit, began construction in 2007 with its commercial introduction scheduled for 2012. As of 2019 the project is three times over budget and years behind schedule." China:…

> It seems reality doesn't match your beliefs.

France is about 75% nuclear, Germany is about 10%

French electricity is about 2x cheaper than German, and they have much lower emissions.

Since Germany has shut down nuclear plants in favor of renewables, it has been forced to increase coal and has actually increased total emissions and accident deaths significantly.

Ontario, Canada is about 60% nuclear and its electricity prices off-peak are about 10x lower than German, on-peak about 5x lower.

Nuclear is the safest, most efficient, and more reliable energy source all nations that have it and those who have more have more affordable energy. Reality has shown this consistently for now almost 80 years.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#143

CCS technology is uneconomic. Like incredibly uneconomic. Like, the last thing you would pay for after doing all other possible things. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stock/files/gillingham_sto... https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-will-it-cost-to-mitigate...

3 degrees of warming turning into 7 degrees of warming because of the chain effect is probably a bit less economical than tackling the problem.

But I'll be dead so whatever. Live your best life.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#144
post #116
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enhanced recovery isn't carbon sequestration. You're not actually sequestering that much carbon with a C02 flood. That's not why oil companies tend to support CCS. CO2 is only useful for enhanced recovery in a few scenarios. It only works in non-water-wet reservoirs, which are fairly rare. You wouldn't use it in other cases even if someone was paying you to. (You'd lose vastly more money in lowered recovery factor co…

"The technical challenge right now is efficient C02 capture. We've largely shown that long-term C02 sequestration should work. However, we still don't have a ton of ways to capture carbon at scale that don't involve significant energy expenditures. The whole system needs to be carbon negative to work ..." Thank you for this interesting contribution ... I agree that the full-lifecycle accounting of CO2 and the require…

You don't actually sequester C02 in gaseous form when you do geologic carbon sequestration.

First off, even the simplest methods wind up with it dissolved in water. You basically can't just inject gaseous C02 into the ground and have it remain a gas. The rocks you're injecting it into are filled with water and it's highly soluble in water. Under certain conditions, you can inject liquid C02 and actually displace the water already there. However, that's mostly not what's being proposed.

Geologic carbon sequestration can take a handful of different approaches. The two you'll hear talked about the most are: 1) Inject it into a reservoir where you expect it to react with something and eventually form carbonate minerals (in-situ mineral sequestration, or mineral trapping). 2) Inject it into a very deep reservoir where it will dissolve into the brine already there and/or is unable to find a way back out again due to the geometry of the reservoir. (Solubility trapping and/or residual trapping)

The first method is preferable, but actually hard to guarantee in practice. The second may sound more risky, but we're actually pretty good at identifying regions that can store a buoyant phase over geologic time -- it's exactly what we do in hydrocarbon exploration. Both are being actively explored along with several others. There's a lot of geologic research being done on carbon sequestration right now (and has been for quite awhile, actually, though the government funded it well before industry started to).

The risk of the "seed the oceans" approaches (or the olivine beach proposals as well) are the environmental side effects. Altering ocean chemistry _will_ have significant effects. Similarly, putting olivine on beaches will result in a lot of heavy metal contamination (you can't get pure olivine -- you're going to have a lot of chromite and fun other odds and ends in ultramafic rocks).

I'd argue we're better off impacting the deep underground where more or less nothing lives than we are altering the oceans.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not that I'm a fan of the oil/gas industry, but the beneficial effects of cheap energy (virtually free in the case of natural gas in the US) shouldn't be overlooked, particularly if we can offset their negative consequences. Climate change must be addressed and I'm all for clean energy (as in a significant portion of my portfolio is in clean energy ETFs, and I'm actually shorting oil and natural gas producers for the…

> Decades of cheap energy could help lead to a rebirth of the American manfacutring sector. Energy is cheap in the USA (and has been for decades). Let’s not kid ourselves, energy costs aren’t the reason the USA exported ~all its manufacturing jobs. (Remember to exclude subsidies in your comparisons, as that’s a matter of policy and, for example, the USA could choose to implement them today if it wanted.)

Probably better return on the investment if other parts of the world were to implement them:

https://waqi.info/

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#146

CCS technology is uneconomic. Like incredibly uneconomic. Like, the last thing you would pay for after doing all other possible things. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stock/files/gillingham_sto... https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-will-it-cost-to-mitigate...

> The higher the bar, the greater the cost. McKinsey’s analysis defines an upper cost threshold of €60 per tonne avoided (i.e. the chart only shows alternatives that are ‘cheaper’ than €60 per tonne).

60 Euros per ton doesn't seem terribly bad. Burning a gallon of gas generates about 20 pounds of CO2 (hydrogen from the gas bonds with oxygen from the air, resulting in CO2 emissions that weight about 3 times as much as the weight of the original gasoline). So, every time you refill a 15 gallon gas tank, that's about 300 pounds of CO2. I'm not sure if the chart uses metric tons (about 2200 pounds, let's say it does.

It looks like most of the CCS options on that chart are in the range of about 40 to 60 euros per ton. 60 euros * (300 pounds / 2200 pounds) is about 8.18 euros, or about 9 US dollars. That's significant; people would complain. It's not insurmountable though. People would still keep driving.

It's worth noting that the carbon capture options listed are specifically carbon capture from existing fossil fuel power plants. There may well be other carbon capture options that are cheaper, like sequestering carbon from plant biomass. (I didn't read the paper, maybe it goes into that.)

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> reality Between 1975 and 1988 the world added 250 GW of carbon-free nuclear generation. That's 20 GWe/year. https://www.iaea.org/resources/databases/power-reactor-infor...

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Actually boomers are quite anti-nuclear as a generation. Millennial and younger are far more into it largely driven by the seriousness of climate change.

The fact I stated is true.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#148
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is if they create the illusion of not destroying the world while continuing to do so. Which is really a key issue in the CCS debate.

That's a big "if" though. "If" our infrastructure is good enough that oil+CCS is more efficient and no more destructive than alt energy methods, then is there still a need for alt energy?

> That's a big "if" though.

No, that's pretty much how the CCS debate has been going. Norway announced a big project to cleanup a gas plant with CCS used for an oil refinery. The plant was built, but without CCS.

When Germany built its last wave of new coal power plants a common argument was that "the CO2 emissions are no big problem, we'll add CCS later". Which never happened.

The promise of CCS as an excuse for continued fossil fuel use without actually buildling it is a recurring theme in the debate.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is an important point that struck home with me when I came to realize just how minuscule the amount of carbon dioxide is in the air relative to other gases: it's nigh-on a rounding error. I think many of us just haven't internalized the percentages of gasses, and probably, like myself, often have it all backwards. An alien doing a fly-through of our solar system would describe our planet as a nitrogen atmosphere…

> and also gives one an appreciation of just how powerful of a greenhouse gas CO2 is It should also be noted that the total atmosphere (dry + water) is about 3% water vapor by weight and H2O makes up the majority of the greenhouse effect. CO2 isn't a problem because it's the biggest greenhouse gas, it's a problem because it's the one (the biggest anthroprogenic one) pushing us over the equilibrium where net warming i…

>It should also be noted that the total atmosphere (dry + water) is about 3% water vapor by weight and H2O makes up the majority of the greenhouse effect.

This is actually an incredibly important point, because higher temperatures mean more water vapor in the atmosphere. However, that also means more clouds, which counteracts warming to some degree.

The impact of clouds on climate change is one of the biggest difficulties in modeling climate change. The IPCC report goes into it a bit. My understanding is that computationally it's a bit like predicting the weather into the future - a lot of uncertainty due to the chaotic nature of the system.

Re: Carbon Capture and Storage is necessary to keep global warming below 2°C

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even without CCS fossil can be switched to carbon neutral biomass and syn-gas for that occasional demand which is not economic to meet with oversupplied renewables, hydro and battery storage. Nuclear promotion desperately ignores that there will be plenty of energy generated most of the time by far more economic solar, wind, hydro and storage. There will be no point to staff and run nuclear's thermal plants most of t…

This assumes that intermittent renewable sources plus storage can be built out at astronomical scale without running into unexpected economic, regulatory, or environmental challenges. In many similar expansions of new tech, big challenges show up once the fleet size shows up. This was the central tenant of Komanoff's Power Plant Cost Escalation book (free pdf of it here: http://komanoff.net/nuclear_power/Power_Plant_…

This term "astronomical" applies no more to the scale of renewables needing built than it would nuclear. The existence of a somewhat related pdf doesn't make the prophecy realistic, that big challenges are more likely to show up for future renewable builds than for nuclear builds. The actual situation is nuclear can hardly get built currently due to "economic, regulatory, or environmental challenges" while renewables can and already have big fleet sizes.
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