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New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

nationalgeographic.com

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Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#151
post #25

President Xi has warned that the virus is spreading. His intervention seems to be unprecedented. Is it worse than what it seems to be? They have quarantined whole cities and are building a hospital at war scale especially for this. Maybe the Chinese know something that the world doesn't know yet.

I would be more concerned if the ones that are outside of China were dying at high rates. So far I haven’t heard any of those quarantined people actually dying. The ones in the US have been listed in fair condition and recovering.

General consensus so far seems to be about twice as fatal as the annual flu. (Which says nothing about transmissibility rate / R0, which they are still figuring out.) Really rough numbers, annual flu is around 0.1% , while the spanish flu was more like 2.5%

So, not a pandemic in terms of fatality. General sense so far seems to be it's more of a big deal than the (run-of-the-mill) flu, less of a big deal than SARS. (Keep in mind that the run-of-the-mill flu is kind of a big deal.)

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#152
post #21

From what I've read it came from bats. Most probably bats being eaten.[1] Bats have been the source of at least 4 pandemics. It's interesting to note that current coronavirus spreading in China and the SARS outbreak of 2003 have two things in common: Both are from the coronavirus family, and both were passed from animals to humans in a wet market.[2] I tried to put together a page for coronavirus in China here where…

The Vice article that is cited by sdiw doesn't mention that the virus came from "bats being eaten.[1]" The article does state "new report points to the original animal source: bats" but nothing about bats being eaten. Maybe I missed something, please let me know. :)

The National Geographic article states the following:

> "[T]he highest prevalence of coronaviruses tend to be extruded by animals through feces, or guano in the case of bats. Coronaviruses not only spread via the air and the respiratory tract, but also if fecal matter comes in contact with another creature’s mouth. Bats aren’t exactly clean, so if one nibbles on a fruit, the food may get contaminated with fecal matter. If the fruit drops to the ground, then it can serve as a viral crossover point for farmed animals like civets." [2]

It seems more likely the virus jumped from the bat to another animal that ate something contaminated with bat guano infected with the virus. That animal was then traded at this market where the virus somehow spread to humans.

This lead me to find the following Wikipedia article on Civets[3]. This mentions how Civets are farmed and fed coffee cherries then the partly digested coffee beans are harvested from the Civets fecal matter. This is purely speculation, but this could be one way that the virus could have spread to humans. A Civet ate a coffee cherry that an infected horseshoe bat had contaminated with guano infected with the virus. The Civet was traded at this market and the virus spread to humans. Once again, this is pure speculation on my part but it shows how there are other mechanisms in which the virus could spread to humans without someone 'eating bats'.

[1] https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqy3n/scientists-now-thi...

[2] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/new-coron...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civet#Coffee

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#153

President Xi has warned that the virus is spreading. His intervention seems to be unprecedented. Is it worse than what it seems to be? They have quarantined whole cities and are building a hospital at war scale especially for this. Maybe the Chinese know something that the world doesn't know yet.

They built a 1,000 bed isolation hospital for SARS too, near Beijing. Also in a week. It was demolished about ten years ago.

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#154
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotal (not official) reports suggest as many as 100,000 infections in Wuhan area. There are claims the virus may be spread through eyes as well as inhalation. Additional unsubstantiated claims suggest low to no fever during incubation period, making detection difficult. The most sensationalist claim making the rounds is that a known Wuhan area PLA biolab may have failed to contain this pathogen. In the end none o…

Is transmission through eyes that odd? The common cold already is. You rub your eyes, the virus enters your tears, which drain to your nose.

Yeah, the "this one spreads through eyes!!!!!!!" shit I keep seeing pop up is actually helping to moderate my panic, somewhat.

It reminds me how much of the "panic!" signal I've been really starting to see explode in the last ~24h, which humans are highly sympathetically attuned to when they suddenly see it spreading everywhere around them, is just from a sheer mass of other idiots who actually don't know anything either coming online on the issue, and reflects internet meme virality, and only very indirectly the uptick in actual danger (ie, from having been loosely following the outbreak, prior to this latest popularization).

Still looks pretty fucking bad, though.

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#155
post #22

>I think this is just a massive overcorrection due to China's 2003 SARS outbreak but we'll start seeing more and more of these large scale quarantines as our civilization comes to terms with the realities of cheap air travel. I don't think is an "overcorrection". Lockdown is a top-level warning. Most Chinese people have no so much medical common sense, only a warning like this can stop them from trying to return home…

> Most Chinese people have no so much medical common sense I disagree. There are no anti-vaxxers in China. I find it’s the opposite, where they often want to be over medicated.

Doctors are the one driving people away from hospitals in China, since they act like a normal bureaucracy where they don't earn much.

I have experienced it first hand and I can tell you that on all honesty, healthcare in general is the biggest issue affecting the Chinese. Most of them don't realise how bad it is because that is what they know but even places in Latin America have way better patience care with less developed infrastructure

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#156
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be more concerned if the ones that are outside of China were dying at high rates. So far I haven’t heard any of those quarantined people actually dying. The ones in the US have been listed in fair condition and recovering.

Dying at a high rate doesn’t matter if they do so quickly. That’s why Ebola has failed to become a global pandemic: it’s too potent and kills hosts before they have a chance to infect enough others.

Ebola is also not airborne it’s spread by bodily fluids. You can’t get it from someone coughing. People flew on planes infected with Ebola and didn’t spread it. It was overhyped by the media. In 1st world nations, it had no means to really spread like cholera.

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#157

How common is for SARS coronaviruses to share the same envelope proteins? I downloaded 200 CoV envelope proteins from NCBI, and I couldn't find any pair of identical proteins. As someone unfamiliar with virology, I'm curious if there are any explanations for how come the protein envelope of 2019-nCoV[1] is the same as the protein envelope described by the Institute of Military Medicine Nanjing Command 2 years ago in…

Quick update: after analyzing about 3,500 strains of coronaviruses, I found several that shared the same envelope proteins despite being different strains e.g. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ipg/?term=ABP38309.1 My quick-and-dirty estimate from my data is that about 0.1% share the same envelope protein with other viruses, but this was just rushed amateur work, so don't take the number too seriously.

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a friend who teaches in China and according to him everyone is extremely worried. People aren't going out, wearing masks when they do, and so forth.

- Wearing masks is normal because of air pollution. A lot of people wear really loose non-N95/n99 masks though, but there's definitely an uptick in people wearing better masks because of the virus. - An acquantince of mine went to a supermarket today. Everything seems fine (they live not too far from Beijing where there are confirmed cases). - There are still people entering Wuhan to see family. ( https://youtu.be/cm…

> An acquantince of mine went to a supermarket today. Everything seems fine

What would it look like if it wasn't fine...?

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#160
Comparison between "Bat SARS-like coronavirus" and the "Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus" seems to show a 100% match:

https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi?RID=2PUA1EJK114&CMD...

Bat SARS-like coronavirus WIV1 has been known since at least 2013.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_SARS-like_coronavirus_WIV1

In 2019, CBC reported "Canadian government scientist under investigation trained staff at Level 4 lab in China"

> A Canadian government scientist at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg made at least five trips to China in 2017-18, including one to train scientists and technicians at China's newly certified Level 4 lab, which does research with the most deadly pathogens, according to travel documents obtained by CBC News.

> Xiangguo Qiu — who was escorted out of the Winnipeg lab in July amid an RCMP investigation into what's being described by Public Health Agency of Canada as a possible "policy breach" — was invited to go to the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences twice a year for two years, for up to two weeks each time.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/national-microbiolog...

> Canadian lab's shipment of Ebola, Henipah viruses to China raises questions. Shipment may be part of RCMP investigation into researchers evicted from National Microbiology Lab. Scientists at the National Microbiology Lab sent live Ebola and Henipah viruses to Beijing on an Air Canada flight March 31, and while the Public Health Agency of Canada says all federal policies were followed, there are questions about whether that shipment is part of an ongoing RCMP investigation. Ebola and Henipah are Level 4 pathogens, meaning they're some of the deadliest viruses in the world. They must be contained in a lab with the highest level of biosafety control, such as the one in Winnipeg.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ebola-henipah-china-...

"Wuhan" is the center of this outbreak too. It's too much of a coincidence.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-w...

> Mr. Shoham, now with the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University in Israel, said the virology institute is the only declared site in China known as P4 for Pathogen Level 4, a status indicating it uses the strictest safety standards to prevent the spread of the most dangerous and exotic microbes being studied.

> The former Israeli military intelligence doctor also said suspicions were raised about the Wuhan Institute of Virology when a group of Chinese virologists working in Canada improperly sent samples to China of what he said were some of the deadliest viruses on earth, including the Ebola virus. In a July article in the journal Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Mr. Shoham said the Wuhan institute was one of four Chinese laboratories engaged in some aspects of the biological weapons development. He identified the secure Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory at the institute as engaged in research on the Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses. The Wuhan virology institute is under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. But certain laboratories within it “have linkage with the PLA or BW-related elements within the Chinese defense establishment,” he said. In 1993, China declared a second facility, the Wuhan Institute of Biological Products, as one of eight biological warfare research facilities covered by the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) which China joined in 1985.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-la...

> China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan - and US biosafety experts warned in 2017 that a virus could 'escape' the facility that's become key in fighting the outbreak

> The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is the only lab in China designated for studying dangerous pathogens like SARS and Ebola

> Ahead of its January 2018 opening, biosafety experts and scientists from the US expressed concerns that a virus could escape the lab

> In 2004, a SARS virus 'leaked' from a lab in Beijing

> Experts say the coronavirus that's infected more than 800 people mutated in animals and became capable of infecting humans at the Wuhan seafood market

> But a 2017 article warned of the unpredictability of lab animals that scientists at the Wuhan lab intended to inject with viruses

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