> One of the world's top self driving car engineers reckons we might never get Level 5.
I have some minor-level experience with self-driving car software, algorithms, etc. The majority of this is from various MOOCs I have participated in over the years, as well as research papers, books, and other things I have read and consumed. In short, I am not an expert, but I am not unfamiliar with the technology, either.
I personally think we'll never see actual widespread usage of self-driving vehicles outside of a very few narrow and carefully controlled (and regulated) cases. At least, I suspect, within my lifetime (which honestly, I'll be lucky for another 30 years or so).
My reasoning is that people will only trust perfection when it comes to riding in a self-driving vehicle. They will only be willing to use one if they can be assured that it will Never Crash, or be crashed into. They have no problem driving a car themselves, or being surrounded by other people driving cars. They have no problem with those crashing and even killing people - maybe even themselves (though they tell themselves fairy tales of it-will-never-happen-to-me to soothe over the reality). But introduce a machine into the equation...
...and that machine has to be Perfect. It cannot make any mistakes. It must avoid issues and be Safe 100% of the time, no exceptions.
In other words, people want the impossible from a machine, but will give utmost allowances to themselves and others as "humans".
I think a lot of this has to do with assignment of blame. When they crash or are crashed into - there is someone to assign blame to; themselves, the other driver, etc. Someone they can yell at, figuratively or literally.
A self-driving car? No one to yell at. No one to assign blame. Nothing that will feel bad for its error or failure to avoid something.
People can't handle that. They don't want a self-driving vehicle that has a safety factor of say, "seven 9s" - it has to be 100% safe or nothing. Because even if it makes a mistake only once out of a million miles of driving, that is still not safe enough. They want the unobtainable - a perfect machine, a machine that will never fail. Nothing like that can or will ever exist (basic laws of thermodynamics prevent it, for one thing).
Even though they themselves, or even the most professional of professional drivers - can't even come close to approaching this level. It both madness, and understandable at the same time.