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First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

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Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#11
post #9
post #3

good thing the federal government is led by a complete fucking idiot

This is a case where a Chinese travel ban would actually be a good idea. Though I'm sure if Trump were to propose that a judge in Hawaii would immediately issue an injunction.

It's almost a perfect dissemination system: people from all over squeeze together in trains, spreading it to each other, then they all fan out to spread it far and wide. :D

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#12
post #9
post #3

good thing the federal government is led by a complete fucking idiot

This is a case where a Chinese travel ban would actually be a good idea. Though I'm sure if Trump were to propose that a judge in Hawaii would immediately issue an injunction.

Travel bans don't work for infectious disease management. Humans travel around barriers, and the disease generally doesn't care where the border is.

Even worse, it will limit the ability for organisations to get staff and resources to affected regions, and move patients around to places with the ability to treat them.

https://www.vox.com/2014/10/18/6994413/research-travel-bans-...

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#14
post #2

Anyone have a sober perspective of how bad this is likely to get? Is this comparable to a bad but forgetten-by-the-next-year flu strain? To SARS? To the Spanish Flu?

I don't think we can know yet. It's infected around 300 people, 6 of whom have died, putting a mortality rate of around 2%. Thats not as bad as SARS, which was 10%, but its early. SARS ended up being restricted to around 8000 people, mostly concentrated in China, though eventually spreading to dozens of countries, but its impossible to say how far and wide this one could spread, especially given that the outbreak is occuring on the eve of Chinese New Year.

According to some of the sources I've found online, coronaviruses tend to be much less easily spread from human to human than something like the flu, but just a few days ago officials were saying they didn't think this virus was transmissible between humans, which they now have confirmed is in fact possible, so clearly its a very fast developing situation.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#15
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a case where a Chinese travel ban would actually be a good idea. Though I'm sure if Trump were to propose that a judge in Hawaii would immediately issue an injunction.

Travel bans don't work for infectious disease management. Humans travel around barriers, and the disease generally doesn't care where the border is. Even worse, it will limit the ability for organisations to get staff and resources to affected regions, and move patients around to places with the ability to treat them. https://www.vox.com/2014/10/18/6994413/research-travel-bans-...

Some communites escaped the Spanish Flu via isolation: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20181023-the-places-that-...

“No one came in and no one came out. Schools were closed and there were no public gatherings. We came up with the term ‘protective sequestration’, where a defined and healthy group of people are shielded from the risk of infection from outsiders.”

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#16
They suspected a man in Australia of having it and were awaiting test results yesterdayish too https://www.smh.com.au/national/first-australian-monitored-f...

There is also /r/China_Flu/ for those that wanta centralized location for news.

I think this is certainly not a great thing but I urge people not to panic. Any time some sort of new disease starts to spread a portion of the population immediately overreacts and starts to get a little nutty "how do I protect myself? What should I buy? Will bleach kill it?! How about OmniCide, Madacide, Opticide?!?!".

Keep in mind that colds and regular flu are going around right now too, if you feel sick it's probably not this virus. Last week my office had a stomach bug, by Friday a few people had bad head/chest colds, this week the stomach bug is all gone and half the office has a head/chest cold and definitely not this virus yet someone on second shift has a hospital mask on (and as far as I know don't have a valid medical reason to remotely justify it).

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#18
The Chinese government has had difficulties handling the situation. I think we might need WHO to jump in soon.

(Chinese New Years is in 3 days and few hundred million people will travel in congested trains and flights. Also people in China usually don’t cover their mouths when they cough)

Coronavirus: Chinese hospitals not testing patients, say relatives https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/coronavirus-ch...

Wuhan virus kills fourth patient, infects hospital staff amid fear of ‘super-spreader’ https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3046908/new-...

man in Wuhan infected with coronavirus went to hospital but got sent away, took a flight to Dalian & became Patient Zero in Dalian https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/erszdd/disease_contr...

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#19
post #13

Coronaviruses are transmitted in what seems to be the same manner as influenza and generate some of the same symptoms. Why do the worst coronaviruses, like SARS, transmit so slowly, while the flu is practically ubiquitous?

Probably has to do with the conditions it can survive in. For example they may both be able to be spread by coughing, but the coronaviruses may not survive as long at room temperature and therefore have a smaller window to inoculate. Granted, this is purely just my guess as I have no actual idea.
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