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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#601

Post by jasonhansel »

amelius wrote: post #585
jasonhansel wrote: post #575

I think it's pretty clear that mass transit and (e-)bikes--not cars--should become the primary modes of transportation, at least in urban areas, if for no other reason than that they're inherently more sustainable. I would be concerned that self-driving cars will only arrive after Peak Automobile has already come and gone.

How about mass transit using a fleet of self driving cars? I can see that this isn't a future a VW exec would dream of, since it would mean far fewer cars per person.

Buses are always going to be more efficient than cars for that purpose (less weight per person). An adequately funded, high-quality bus system would, in my view, make self-driving cars redundant for almost all purposes.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#602

Post by pjkundert »

kens wrote: post #526
pjkundert wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look up "Ergodicity". Autopilot doesn't need to be 2x or 10x better than a human driver -- it needs to be 100x or 1,000x better, or nobody (sane) should touch it. The problem is not that autopilot is superior than your own driving in the vast majority of the cases! The problem is the 1 in a million times when it makes a trivial mistake that virtually no human would, and kills you instantly. Like driving under an obvi…

People die all the time from driving under a semi-trailer. Look up "Underride". Over 200 people die every year from underride crashes in the US, so this isn't a mistake made only by autopilots. In other words, if we switched to self-driving cars and three people died every week when the autopilot drove into a semi-trailer, that would be a big improvement.

So, your family would be ok that your car sheared you off in a quirk unnecessary accident, so long as the overall stats were better than average?

Non-ergotic stats are not comparable to ergotic (group) stats.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#603

Post by rixed »

thrower123 wrote: post #473
Fomite wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item" I am extremely skeptical that beacons, sitting out in the heat, and the sun, and the cold, and the rain, and exposed to whatever we use to maintain roads at that juncture, will not be "a wear item".

They'll get hit and sheared off by plows and over-size loads, or just by drunks or idiots still driving dumb cars. I do not think people have a solid grasp of how many millions of miles of road would need to be technified for self-driving cars to be widely viable. Most likely, it's going to be a niche thing, tightly restricted to certain places that can afford to build and maintain the infrastructure.

I, for one, already fail to grasp where we manage to get the funds required to clear and level the land and butter a fresh layer of asphalt on top of it regularly enough to build and maintain that many roads to begin with.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#604

Post by Vendan »

yellow_lead wrote: post #505
NullPrefix wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Aside from Tesla owners, I do not know anyone in my life today whose vehicle connects to the Internet When did the whole OnStar botnet start? I think it's earlier than 2010.

I wasn't aware of that. I suppose that would count as the car, but doesn't most car hacking occur when the component has access to i.e the CAM bus?

Why do you think OnStar doesn't have access to the can bus https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10008228

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#605

Post by lispm »

amelius wrote: post #585
jasonhansel wrote: post #575

I think it's pretty clear that mass transit and (e-)bikes--not cars--should become the primary modes of transportation, at least in urban areas, if for no other reason than that they're inherently more sustainable. I would be concerned that self-driving cars will only arrive after Peak Automobile has already come and gone.

How about mass transit using a fleet of self driving cars? I can see that this isn't a future a VW exec would dream of, since it would mean far fewer cars per person.

The business model changes then from car sales to a mix of car sales and being a mobility provider. VW would need to be able to move into those directions.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#606

Post by giancarlostoro »

moooo99 wrote: post #269
giancarlostoro wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heck. With Toyota building a city of the future. They might make self driving cars entirely common once you are free to design roads for them.

If you'd build a genuinely smart city completely from scratch, the most elegant way would be to completely remove the need for own cars. But that's obviously not going to happen when its a project designed and financed by an automaker.

It is when you sell them the autonomous cars that people can use and maintain them with the guarantee that they wont breakdown often when used basically.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#607

Post by Anarch157a »

SECProto wrote: post #429
Anarch157a wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All it takes is a little bit of rain and hundreds of traffic lights go haywire in my city. What makes you think those beacons would fare any better? Politicians don't a crap for long term maintanance of little visibility infrastructure like that, so they're poorly funded. And you say "private contactors will save the day", please, stop drinking the Ayn Rand Cool-aid.

What is wrong with the traffic lights in your city would be the much more interesting question here. Everywhere I know, traffic lights work as long as their power supply is intact

Shitty maintenance on top of lower bidder supplying sub-par equipment because half of the money went to corruption. The result is water getting in the circuits and shorting them out.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#608

Post by orange8 »

cameronh90 wrote: post #545
einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

What's stopping people from destroying yield signs and other safety critical road infrastructure now? Sometimes common sense helps, but it you're out to cause chaos, there's a ton of things you can do today that would cause crashes - but most of the time, people don't.

The yield signs could be backed up with an an official map all cars read from as well.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#609

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

jasonhansel wrote: post #601
amelius wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about mass transit using a fleet of self driving cars? I can see that this isn't a future a VW exec would dream of, since it would mean far fewer cars per person.

Buses are always going to be more efficient than cars for that purpose (less weight per person). An adequately funded, high-quality bus system would, in my view, make self-driving cars redundant for almost all purposes.

Sorry, but I think this point of view really does not take into account the reality of the situation in many US cities (or, more importantly, many US suburbs). I would love it if I could take a highly quality bus instead of be stuck in traffic driving, but it's simply not feasible given where I live. Driving downtown to work takes about 20 mins with no traffic, about 35 mins during rush hour, and even if there was a bus that I could take (there isn't) given the additional stops it would still take longer than that, even though it can take the 'express' lane.

Where I live self-driving cars, even if "highway only", IMO are much more feasible than an adequate public transportation system that would cost billions to construct.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#610

Post by orange8 »

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

> .. and will be a niche hobby on race tracks

Just like horses. Am sure there was a time no one ever imagined cars would completely replace horses on roads.

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