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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

thedrive.com

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#401

Post by senordevnyc »

HereBeBeasties wrote: post #274
senordevnyc wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. I take Uber and Lyft in NYC multiple times per week. No one ever “parks”, they just pull up, you jump in, and off you go. Takes less than a minute in most cases, doesn’t block traffic, and I suspect it virtually never results in a ticket. Maybe if they sit there for 10 minutes or more, but th…

Umm, that is is point though - with autonomy the cars presumably won't break the law and stop where it's technically illegal for 30s to pick you up. They will presumably need to find somewhere legal to park to do so.

I’m not convinced it is illegal, and even if it is, no one cares.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#402

Post by dodobirdlord »

Fomite wrote: post #310
SECProto wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

"Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item" I am extremely skeptical that beacons, sitting out in the heat, and the sun, and the cold, and the rain, and exposed to whatever we use to maintain roads at that juncture, will not be "a wear item".

Traffic lights seem to have a pretty long lifespan.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#403

Post by janee »

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

Agreed, "never" is a ridiculously unfathomable amount of time if you define it on say our species extinction date.

I'm presonally bullish on fully autonomous transport because of the industry interest shown in it and the potential demand for it. The latter I don't see going away unless something comes around that makes it redundant.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#404

Post by Groxx »

heavyset_go wrote: post #366
mavhc wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

There is no evidence that automated driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they ever will be.

Humans have been failing to drive safely for longer than we've had computers, and neither has been around for very long.

It's far too soon to claim we've hit peak performance.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#405

Post by smabie »

crusso wrote: post #191
desc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point here is that going from level 4 to level 5 is a much, much harder problem than going from, say, level 1 to level 4.

But it's really not. Level 4 will require the vehicle to take you from door to door without driver intervention in normal driving conditions. Level 4 is mostly what people think of when they think of autonomous driving because you can take a nap, work on your laptop, whatever. You get in your car, tell it where you want to go, and it does everything. Level 5 basically removes the steering wheel so you never drive. Bu…

Like making sure the river you are about to ford in the Serengeti is low enough so you won't get stuck?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#406

Post by gfodor »

macinjosh wrote: post #229
wnevets wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way Multiple important stake holders seem to have significant incentives to make this happen. Local/state govs want less traffic jams and crashes, auto insurance companies would love to collect premiums and not pay out, Uber, Lyft would love to get rid of their drivers

I want an oceanside villa on the dark side of the moon but that's doesn't mean it will happen. Just because there is motivation to do something doesn't mean it is possible.

Of course it’s possible: we have billions of existence proofs that driving high speed vehicles successfully using sensors equipped to measure light and sound work. The question is how much it takes to replicate that system artificially.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#407

Post by kortex »

rdiddly wrote: post #214
wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…

Albany is a middlin' sized city. Taking the train to NYC is like, still a nontrivial event. Also passenger rail has to sidestep freight on this corridor. Megabus is a bit better experience overall but also kinda meh.

On top of that, I personally (and know many agree) HATE the stress of keeping track of times, scheduling around infrequent departures, logistics to/from stations, etc.

> Bonus: the vehicle can be resized at will, depending on the number of passengers.

Yeahno. "please wait 15-30 minutes as we shuffle cars around the rail yard" is not exactly "at will"

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#408

Post by jakeogh »

mprev wrote: post #296
jakeogh wrote: post #245

A car that has "self" is equiv to a living being, and it wouldn't be ethical to lock it inside a box. It's not going to happen any time soon and it will never happen with conventional binary computing; a non-wetware system capiable of emulating a mouse would melt itself through the road. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22061718 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21250424

Your framing of the issues seems so far removed from the rest of the discussion that I can only assume I’m misunderstanding your point. Could you elaborate?

The links I provided contain significant context, can you be specific on what is unclear?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21108631

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#409

Post by Groxx »

jstummbillig wrote: post #354
einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

> I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have Aren't sanity checks basically common sense? I would suspect they already play a major role in making autonomous driving a reality.

I'd argue those are the opposite - due to the software/hardware failing to have common sense, we've added some extremely coarse checks to shut it down when it's clearly going nuts. Less "common sense", more "don't push this button, it will kill you [presses button anyway]"

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#410

Post by the-pigeon »

est31 wrote: post #346
mavhc wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

Yeah but if the system is designed in the wrong way, hackers could kill millions in a single moment. Admittedly, this danger already exists as in all modern cars between driver and car there is a layer of (hackable and wireless network connected) software.

Hackers could hijack a missile and kill a lot of people too.

This is why we have security. And honestly modern cars are so computerized already I think your argument applies to them as much as autonomous cars.

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