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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#381

Post by ryukafalz »

akrymski wrote: post #371

Thank God! Self driving cars are not a solution to the world's problems. Better public transport is. Why can't we have self driving buses that replace trams? The level of AI needed for that is already there. As the population of major cities grows, we can't expect everyone riding around in their own car. Public transport is better for citizens and the environment. We need to be reducing the number of vehicles on the…

Not everyone lives in a major city though. Certainly self-driving cars are less efficient than buses for transport within a denser city, but go a few miles outside the city (at least in the US) and you’ll find yourself far from practical bus range.

The situation may be different in Europe, but I think self-driving cars could be useful for navigating the sprawling American suburbs or less-dense cities. But yes, we shouldn’t attempt to replace perfectly functional and more efficient public transport within cities, only supplement where public transit isn’t (yet) practical.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#382

Post by maxsilver »

ethbro wrote: post #231
SECProto wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

The primary deployment potential for self-driving cars is long haul freight, which could be done exclusively via the interstate system. If we're going to beacon up a road, they easily make the most sense.

> which could be done exclusively via the interstate system.

The interstate system already has working self-driving, even without any beacons. Inherently-safe roads like interstate freeways are already almost solved, and you can already buy a Chevrolet today that can self-drive the interstate system 99% of the time.

It's all the dangerous roads that need the help. The ones with bicyclists and pedestrians and parked cars and uncontrolled access and such.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#383

Post by l33tman »

close04 wrote: post #299
AngryData wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it is on asphalt roads you can easily embed wires and electronics underneath the surface by heating it up. And an embedded wire would be both easy for a computer to track and easy to fix or replace.

We may actually discover it’s cheaper or smarter to limit the scope of what self driving cars have to do by limiting their infrastructure. If cities become more pedestrian (cyclist, public transport) centric then some of the issues disappear. It would be a hell of a lot easier if you eliminate the complexities of navigating city traffic if most of it is gone or car traffic is completely separated from the rest. Eithe…

Which proves the point the volkswagen guy was trying to make I guess.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#384

Post by anoncareer0212 »

krawakoliz wrote: post #334
Booktrope wrote: post #111

Or perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. That, of course, would mean far less cars. So don't expect a traditional car manufacturer to lead the way. This is incidentally one reason for Tesla's huge market value. The company actually has a plan to transition from individua…

> O r perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. Why on earth would anyone use this over public transit? That would be a hugely expensive way to travel.

the benefits of accelerating a transition to a sustainable future and being a network in the truest sense make me believe it would be _cheaper_

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#385

Post by e_y_ »

_greim_ wrote: post #328
_red wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its not only lines on the road though: Imagine you are following a pickup-truck and out of the back an obviously empty box floats out of the bed and lands directly in front of your car. For a human its trivial to know the box is empty and its ok to hit it....does "AI" know that? Multiply that case x1000 and you have the conditions self-driving cars will need to handle on a daily basis.

> For a human its trivial... I anecdotally question this based on both personal experience and stories I've heard. It seems like it would be a hard problem for both humans and AIs, however AIs have the edge in the long run due to sheer processing speed.

AI also has a lot of training data. Humans are highly adaptable but most of us have limited experience with situations like hydroplaning, sudden tire failure, etc.

Also self-driving cars could have better sensors that don't have blind spots, and the multitasking ability to monitor all of them at once.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#386

Post by actf »

bpye wrote: post #292
rkagerer wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self driving trains would probably be easier. Aren't there already some airport shuttle trains and metro transit that's fully automated? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_train_syst...

SkyTrain in Vancouver, BC for example is fully automated. It works well unless there are issues with track or sensors, at which point it has to be driven manually.

The SkyTrain is a great example of how easily transportation technology infrastructure fails during even slightly unexpected circumstances. The trains were inoperable for multiple times this past week, for hours at a time due to snow storms.

Trains aren't exactly new technology, yet here we are with them still not functioning properly during what was actually a pretty routine snow storm. It doesn't leave me very optimistic for self driving cars, which will be significantly more compliced technology.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#387

Post by runarb »

darkerside wrote: post #316
jsolson wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may not be getting in that car, but I certainly will. After all, every driver on the road today is an incomprehensible black box where not only do we not know the parameters, we don't even know the function they're parameterizing. Every instance functions differently, and our testing procedures have woefully low coverage.

When one of those black boxes malfunctions it gets taken off the road. When the AI malfunctions, are we going to shut down entire classes of vehicles until the problem is confirmed fixed? Not to mention that most software fixes cause other bugs...

> When the AI malfunctions, are we going to shut down

> entire classes of vehicles until the problem is confirmed fixed?

Yes, a malfunction AI would have to be grounded, just like for example the Boeing 737 MAX is now.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#388

Post by wernercd »

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

Personally, I think Drones will meet self driving... Easier to have a system without need of "markings on the ground" when things are flying.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#389

Post by FriendlyNormie »

toasterlovin wrote: post #376
darkerside wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When one of those black boxes malfunctions it gets taken off the road. When the AI malfunctions, are we going to shut down entire classes of vehicles until the problem is confirmed fixed? Not to mention that most software fixes cause other bugs...

At least the software is fixable. Other humans are not.

At least other humans fear death as a consequence of driving incorrectly. Computers do not.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#390

Post by joe_the_user »

simias wrote: post #380
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

I think self-driving cars are like fusion reactors, they're perfectly possible on paper and, like, totally 15years away from now. I'm sure it'll be possible some day, but I'm not positive that it'll be possible in the general case before we reach the Singularity. And when we get there self-driving cars are going to be a small side-effect of this unprecedented revolution. I can't help to draw a parallel between these…

I think self-driving cars are like fusion reactors, they're perfectly possible on paper and, like, totally 15years away from now.

There's a certain similarity but I don't know any paper that actually gives any assure that self-driving is going to ever be possible. The only theory is "we will prevent extraneous factors and then calculate".

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