Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short • Hacker News Board

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#11

Post by borism » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 8:52 PM UTC

scotch_drinker wrote: post #7

I think the most important part of the article is the quote at then end saying that just because they aren't interested in buying it doesn't make it a good short. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent and all that. 75x trailing earnings in the current economic environments SEEMS expensive to me. I'd be willing to bet (but not with real money) that it will be cheaper in 12 months. Of course,…

75x trailing earnings in the current economic environments SEEMS expensive to me.

It seems the same to me as well, but markets seem to disagree. The riskier the bet, the more willing today's market seems to be willing to accept it.

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#12

Post by SoftwareMaven » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:00 PM UTC

icarus_drowning wrote: post #6

Has anyone else noticed a distinct dive in Netflix streaming quality over the past few weeks? I used to be able to watch their full HD videos nearly instantly, and now I'm lucky if I get the lowest quality-- about half the time videos won't even start. I haven't changed anything on my end that I'm aware of. Still, I can't believe this is all on Netflix's end, can it?

Don't use Google's DNS or Open DNS. That screws with the CDN endpoint you are given and drastically hurts performance.

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#13

Post by underdown » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:08 PM UTC

Sounds like Hastings charmed them.

I'm a Netflix streaming subscriber and even though it's so cheap - I'm considering canceling because they don't bring enough new content online for me to get value from the service.

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#14

Post by thorax » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:12 PM UTC

SoftwareMaven wrote: post #12

icarus_drowning wrote: post #6

Has anyone else noticed a distinct dive in Netflix streaming quality over the past few weeks? I used to be able to watch their full HD videos nearly instantly, and now I'm lucky if I get the lowest quality-- about half the time videos won't even start. I haven't changed anything on my end that I'm aware of. Still, I can't believe this is all on Netflix's end, can it?

Don't use Google's DNS or Open DNS. That screws with the CDN endpoint you are given and drastically hurts performance.

Holy cow-- I never thought about this. Thank you so much for mentioning because it might explain our sometimes weak streaming performance for different sites.

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#15

Post by trunnell » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:18 PM UTC

ryanmolden wrote: post #5

Pretty sure the studios, once Netflix is all/mostly streaming will simply change the licensing costs to pilfer most of the profit, why wouldn't they? Without their content Netflix has nothing. Before they were insulated from this via the First Sale Doctorine and distribution through the mail. If they go all streaming the content producers can change licensing costs (already happening) and there is almost no barrier t…

there is almost no barrier to entry

Yes, anyone can stream videos. But not everyone can buy the rights, which are sold in exclusive windows.

Every title is only licensed to one entity in each window. This system was designed for pay-TV channels that wanted exclusive rights, and the studios found that it was a good way to maximize revenue. So after a movie leaves the theaters, there are a series of these licensing windows, each lasting about 1-2 years. This is why a movie that's on HBO will never be on TBS simultaneously.

Buying content within a window is essentially like an auction. The highest bidder wins. It's possible to enter the market, but to do so you actually need a lot of capital to bid and win content.

studios... will simply change the licensing costs

Reed publicly stated that a major goal in the future is to pay studios more for content. And that's only fair as we increase the number of viewers.

Disclaimer: I work at Netflix.

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#16

Post by cdr » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:18 PM UTC

SoftwareMaven wrote: post #12

icarus_drowning wrote: post #6

Has anyone else noticed a distinct dive in Netflix streaming quality over the past few weeks? I used to be able to watch their full HD videos nearly instantly, and now I'm lucky if I get the lowest quality-- about half the time videos won't even start. I haven't changed anything on my end that I'm aware of. Still, I can't believe this is all on Netflix's end, can it?

Don't use Google's DNS or Open DNS. That screws with the CDN endpoint you are given and drastically hurts performance.

If that's so, what do you do if your ISP's DNS is terrible? Try to find a better one that's still geographically close?

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#17

Post by wiredfool » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:21 PM UTC

SoftwareMaven wrote: post #12

icarus_drowning wrote: post #6

Has anyone else noticed a distinct dive in Netflix streaming quality over the past few weeks? I used to be able to watch their full HD videos nearly instantly, and now I'm lucky if I get the lowest quality-- about half the time videos won't even start. I haven't changed anything on my end that I'm aware of. Still, I can't believe this is all on Netflix's end, can it?

Don't use Google's DNS or Open DNS. That screws with the CDN endpoint you are given and drastically hurts performance.

Would that likely be a general problem with CDN's or is it specific to just Netflix?

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#18

Post by SoftwareMaven » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:57 PM UTC

wiredfool wrote: post #17

SoftwareMaven wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't use Google's DNS or Open DNS. That screws with the CDN endpoint you are given and drastically hurts performance.

Would that likely be a general problem with CDN's or is it specific to just Netflix?

Probably a general problem. They (of course, depends on the network) use the DNS system to determine "where" you are to provide a node closer to you. However, you probably will only notice it on things like video where latency can make such a large difference.

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#19

Post by SoftwareMaven » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 9:59 PM UTC

cdr wrote: post #16

SoftwareMaven wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't use Google's DNS or Open DNS. That screws with the CDN endpoint you are given and drastically hurts performance.

If that's so, what do you do if your ISP's DNS is terrible? Try to find a better one that's still geographically close?

I have a device that I use exclusively for streaming, so I've set it up to use my ISP's DNS. My DHCP server is set to give out OpenDNS' address, so everything else gets good DNS service and my streaming doesn't get hit.

Alternatively, you could probably write a script to bounce back and forth. It would be pretty trivial in Linux; I'm not sure how it would work with OS X (ironically, my OS of choice :) or Windows.

Re: Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short

#20

Post by cicero » Fri, Feb 11, 2011, 10:10 PM UTC

Is anyone concerned about a backlash from ISPs over Netflix bandwidth consumption? Many ISPs provide a video on demand service, but instead of getting revenue for video on demand, they have to beef up their Internet infrastructure to support a competitor. I would think this imbalance would bolster their case against net-neutrality or justify charging for bandwidth usage, which could upset the economics that make Netflix profitable.