U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#211

Post by slumdev » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:27 PM UTC

downerending wrote: post #161

slumdev wrote: post #21

On its own, this probably doesn't mean anything. But it's important for us to pay attention. Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment, so it's easy to forget that everyone else is subject to macroeconomic cycles. Even if you were laid off after the Dot-Com Crash or the Great Recession, you didn't have it anywhere near as bad as someone outside this industry.

> Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment Just wait until you turn 50...

I don't personally know any sharp ICs who have trouble finding work, regardless of age, provided they keep learning.

I've met many people who have struggled to find work after they stopped learning. But someone who refuses to learn at 30 is less employable than someone who still gets excited about a new framework at 60.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#212

Post by thaumaturgy » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:28 PM UTC

ellisv wrote: post #168

downerending wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment Just wait until you turn 50...

Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo) to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new career?

Aside from ~UncleOxidant's really good reply -- to save as much as possible with a goal towards being financially independent by 50 -- there are a couple of other options which anecdotally seem to have worked well for a lot of people:

You can become an expert in a niche subject. The tricky part here is that it has to be a niche subject that pays well, with a lot of demand but not so much demand that newcomers are tempted to do the work to also become an expert in it. One example of this, that most on HN would like to pretend doesn't exist, is COBOL. COBOL programmers can command some pretty nice rates now, because nobody wants to work with COBOL but it still powers a lot of the world.

It's also a great time to start your own business. Maybe your kids are out of the house, hopefully you've become a seasoned industry veteran, you've seen other people make mistakes and you've gathered together a nice bit of savings and some excellent credit. Why not put those resources and that experience to use and start your own business? See also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18212409

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#213

Post by mgh2 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:28 PM UTC

I base my recession predictor on BS detection. The dot-com bubble and mortgage crisis were driven by lies, this time is no different with buybacks. You cannot outrun truth forever.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#214

Post by slumdev » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:29 PM UTC

borkt wrote: post #150

boernard wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and there are many many HR departments going on a hunt for these people that got laid off

Is any tech worker seriously that desirable still that they are being hounded immediately after getting fired? I entered college in 2004 and transferred out of software engineering, feeling that developer/engineer jobs would quickly become the auto mechanic of the 21st century and wages at the grunt level would fall in line. I also didn't feel fulfilled with sitting at a computer all day. Fast forward to now, and whi…

> Is any tech worker seriously that desirable still that they are being hounded immediately after getting fired?

I get hounded constantly now, and I don't even do anything that interesting. Having a LinkedIn account and accepting connection requests from recruiters is a good first step.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#215

Post by alexgmcm » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:32 PM UTC

npo9 wrote: post #8

m3kw9 wrote: post #4

This doesn't indicate if is good or bad. You need to know employment rate as well, all the job could be getting filled faster than they are opened.

You write as if we do not have access to additional context. There have been several signs that the US economy might be slowing down after a very long (the longest?) bull run in history.

It's weird because although I'm aware that the US Stock Market has been doing great, at least here in Europe it feels that for most people we still haven't recovered from the 2008 crisis.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#216

Post by borkt » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:36 PM UTC

yodsanklai wrote: post #180

borkt wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is any tech worker seriously that desirable still that they are being hounded immediately after getting fired? I entered college in 2004 and transferred out of software engineering, feeling that developer/engineer jobs would quickly become the auto mechanic of the 21st century and wages at the grunt level would fall in line. I also didn't feel fulfilled with sitting at a computer all day. Fast forward to now, and whi…

> while I work as a Civil Engineer Not answering your question, but just sharing some anecdote. A good friend of mine is a (unhappy) Civil Engineer and became passionate about programming. It's a hobby that he discovered later in his life. I can tell he's actually quite good (even though he lacks some fundamentals but he could learn fast). Unfortunately, I don't think he would be given a chance in company (here in Fr…

Thanks! Yeah its just an idea I'd like to look into at this point. As I said in my post I grew up natively thinking like a programmer surrounded by a bunch of hackers in university on IRC when I was still in grade school, but I never did any structured programming learning and when I got to college it just didn't feel like a realistic path to a career-long job, as to me coding was familiar enough that it felt anyone could (and would) learn it in the future, and there were only so many jobs to go around. Facebook was built with a handful of people, who would have thought in their wildest dreams a social media website would need more than 40,000 employees? I have no idea how many of them are engineers, but probably way more than I would have expected.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#217

Post by mooreds » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:38 PM UTC

eclipxe wrote: post #179

mooreds wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a little more sober analysis: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/01/bls-job-openings-... By someone who has been following the jolts numbers for years.

Calculated Risk has been "sky is falling" for many years. Someone taking their advice over the last 12 years would be much worse off than doing the opposite of what they encourage.

Interesting. I haven't followed as closely since left the real estate business but thought he was always pretty measured. And data driven. See

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/05/still-not-on-rece...

For an example.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#218

Post by downerending » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:39 PM UTC

ellisv wrote: post #168

downerending wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment Just wait until you turn 50...

Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo) to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new career?

I'd echo what others are saying here: learn to live cheap, cultivate your professional network, learn to be a team player.

Amplifying: Don't have kids unless you really want them--they're very expensive. Don't get married unless you really want to--being (and then likely not being) married is very expensive. Avoid those and a drug habit, and you don't need a lot of money.

I didn't realize how important networking is when I was young. It really is "who you know and not what you know". And to the degree that it's the latter, it's how well you interview, not what you know that actually matters. It's rarely possible to evaluate someone's skills or how they'll do in a company until you've had them on-board for a year or two.

I was much more idealistic when I was young, and often stood on principal. That was a mistake. If management wants to drive their train over a cliff, offer to sell popcorn. Or write a crash analysis tool that will look good on your resume. But smile the whole time, and keep your resume polished. You're playing for your team, not your employer's.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#219

Post by throwawayhhakdl » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:40 PM UTC

avocado4 wrote: post #28

m3kw9 wrote: post #4

This doesn't indicate if is good or bad. You need to know employment rate as well, all the job could be getting filled faster than they are opened.

Stock market went up to the record on the news somehow.

I wonder what proportion of stock market growth is completely absent of any human decision making, e.g. automatic 401k contributions to index plans

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#220

Post by borkt » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 7:42 PM UTC

kevstev wrote: post #176

borkt wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is any tech worker seriously that desirable still that they are being hounded immediately after getting fired? I entered college in 2004 and transferred out of software engineering, feeling that developer/engineer jobs would quickly become the auto mechanic of the 21st century and wages at the grunt level would fall in line. I also didn't feel fulfilled with sitting at a computer all day. Fast forward to now, and whi…

Yes- layoffs typically happen for bigger reasons than just performance. It is a bit of a red flag, I mean clearly you were not the most critical person the company could not do without, but its happened to me and it has not been an issue. In a struggling company, layoffs can happen for many reasons including- being too junior, being too senior (costing too much), working on a feature/product that is getting killed- i…

Great! I have a number of friends I still talk with once in a blue moon at FAANG, though socially rather than about work. I'll start talking to them to see what direction they see their companies/divisions moving and what skills they could use.

And completely agreed about so many reasons to be laid off. My wife was forced out of a position at a very successful company not because of experience but because one single SVP was threatened by her. So many colleages were stunned to hear she left, but she ended up somewhere much more appreciative of her skills and experience.