201–210 of 276 posts
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> Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment Just wait until you turn 50...
Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo) to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new career?
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That makes no sense.
The thinking behind "as long as people think it will crash, it won't crash" is as follows... 1) most people thinking that a crash is near means that they view the stock market to be overpriced. 2) this means they won't buy as much and inflate prices even further. in fact, many may start to sell. 3) this will tend to limit price increases and may even depress the markets a bit 4) Thus, while there may be a decline if…
3) this will cause prices to start dropping, which increases uncertainty, and causes additional sells.
4) thus we enter a loop where uncertainty increases, which causes more selling, which causes price decreases, and the market crashes.
Market prices are largely a function of market confidence. If confidence erodes, so does the market. It's how bubbles burst.
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Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo) to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new career?
Yea going into management is the best bet. Its a "controversial" topic on HN because large swathes of ppl here here believe #IC4Lyfe is a good career move. Its not.
Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor: > According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a... Ta…
If it is 12 to 18 months away it will happen just after the election this winter. That will be fun.
I'm pretty convinced the Democrats will be toast as a party by 2030 once they get saddled with imploding the economy by no fault of their own other than bad timing.
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Add in the bad monetary policy that has Fortune 500 companies borrowing money at 0% to buyback stocks. Then the Democrats are going to want to rollback the Trump tax cuts and that will be the beginning. However, I think we need a bad recession or pop to bring things back to normal instead of just easing the pressure slightly. Otherwise the real crash will be even bigger.
I hope it’s a pop and soon or the eventual fall will be closer to a depression in the old school sense.
Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor: > According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a... Ta…
HN comments are like ZeroHedge -- we've predicted 14 of the past 2 recessions.
My prediction - someone's guess will turn out to be right and they'll be the new investing star for the coming decade.
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Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo) to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new career?
Seriously, your best bet (and the advice I would give my 20-something year old self) is to SAVE AS MUCH MONEY AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN. And then save more than that. Try to be financially independent by 50. If you can do that then you won't have to worry about ageism. You'll be able to be picky about the kinds of jobs you take. From a practical standpoint that means don't buy status symbol products (cars, fancy phones, et…
When I buy something nicer than I truly need for a hobby such as a Mountain Bike, I wait for a great price on a fixer-upper, perform the maintenance it needs, and enjoy it without getting attached, while at the same time putting it back up for sale at a higher price in case someone wants it more than I do. 9 times out of 10 the item will sell in a few months, and oddly enough I've met some incredibly interesting people who wanted properly restored items, such as a tie-dye founder whose been in business for over 50 years and an SVP at Cisco who's in charge of a product I had been using daily for years.
Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor: > According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a... Ta…
Also, the yield curve inversion is a strong indicator, but not a perfect one, and some of the recessions it indicated happened as far as 34 months out (according to some Credit Suisse report I can't really find anymore).
We're sure to hit a recession at some point, but it's really hard to guess when.
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> Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment Just wait until you turn 50...
Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo) to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new career?
I'm guessing that for people this happens to, it's a combination of being in a place with not many tech jobs and also not keeping up with technology. Can you do cloud tech (aws, google cloud, azure?), c++, java, js, protobuffers? None of these technologies were invented when I got my BS in CS many many years ago and I've been learning continuously. Sure there were similar things or building blocks toward this kind of stuff. My last job search was a couple of years ago, I had 3 offers and stopped interviewing and I'm not unusual in my experience (going back to the above comment about negative employment in software engineering). I'm in the Seattle area. At the company I joined a few months ago half our small team of engineers are 45+. We just hired someone past 60 as a dev.
If you find yourself in this situation, all these technologies are available to try for free on the internet, you can teach yourself. Companies that won't hire older people are just stupid, on top of being illegal.