U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#171

Post by 12xo » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

Mikeb85 wrote: post #25

12xo wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the largest deficit in history... Who is going to pay for the debt fueled growth? Hint: Its not the people benefiting most from the markets... The US economy is as stable as Trump and as factually real as his skin tone...

Look at interest rates. The cost of borrowing matters more than the amount borrowed.

I can only assume you are talking about hard asset based debt... What if there is no collateral, or hard assets? Like the majority of consumer debt? Or corporate debt?

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#172

Post by sangnoir » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #124

Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor: > According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a... Ta…

> Oddly enough, the stock market typically rallies from the yield curve inversion right into the next recession.

In addition to buybacks, the Fed has been buying treasuries like crazy[1] since September 2019 (they claim it's totally not Quantitative Easing) - so lot's of fed dollars are juicing the stock market rn.

1. $100-billion-per-month worth of "not-QE" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-federal-reserve-is-stu...

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#173

Post by take_a_breath » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

skrowl wrote: post #11

All 3 stock indexes record high opening. Consumer confidence 20 year high. Enormous USMCA trade deal finally passed by US Congress after the House sat on it for a year. Reuters just salivating over finding something they can spin as negative about the current economy.

Aren't you just doing the opposite? There are lots of data points that point to economic weakness. Ignoring those is just as silly as people ignoring the low unemployment rate and high consumer confidence and saying everything is bad.

Among actual signs of weakness: low GDP growth, three rate cuts in 2019, an annual deficit higher than annual GDP growth, an S&P 500 earnings recession [1], a manufacturing recession [2], corporate debt at a record 47% of economy [3]. Even the fact that companies are using cash to buy-back stock instead of investing in growth shows that they don't believe there is enough economic demand to grow EPS through business expansion. Instead they re-purchase stock to reduce the denominator [4].

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first...

[2] https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-10-09/despite-tr...

[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/corporate-de...

[4] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-buybac...

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#174

Post by shams93 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #166

slumdev wrote: post #21

On its own, this probably doesn't mean anything. But it's important for us to pay attention. Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment, so it's easy to forget that everyone else is subject to macroeconomic cycles. Even if you were laid off after the Dot-Com Crash or the Great Recession, you didn't have it anywhere near as bad as someone outside this industry.

I feel like in the dot-com crash it was technologists who got hit the worst. Most other industries were unscathed, or very little scathed for a short time. But in tech it was like winter for about 3 years.

Yeah it was brutal I managed to scrape by doing short term contracts but it was some deep poverty and on top of it my options in Yahoo were upside down so I had not only poverty but a relentless IRS pursuing me for whatever they could for 10 years after dot bomb.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#175

Post by ellisv » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #124

Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor: > According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a... Ta…

> Taken with the yield curve inversion in 2019, and other leading indicators, it appears the US economy is headed for the first recession in over 10 years.

The research using yield curve inversion as a leading indicator of recession is based on the yield curve remaining inverted for a full quarter -- which it didn't do.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#176

Post by kevstev » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

borkt wrote: post #150

boernard wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and there are many many HR departments going on a hunt for these people that got laid off

Is any tech worker seriously that desirable still that they are being hounded immediately after getting fired? I entered college in 2004 and transferred out of software engineering, feeling that developer/engineer jobs would quickly become the auto mechanic of the 21st century and wages at the grunt level would fall in line. I also didn't feel fulfilled with sitting at a computer all day. Fast forward to now, and whi…

Yes- layoffs typically happen for bigger reasons than just performance. It is a bit of a red flag, I mean clearly you were not the most critical person the company could not do without, but its happened to me and it has not been an issue. In a struggling company, layoffs can happen for many reasons including- being too junior, being too senior (costing too much), working on a feature/product that is getting killed- its a lot easier to just cut everyone on that project then to start cherry picking them and moving them, disagreeing with the strategy, and sometimes there is just a mandate to cut 20% and your team could all be great people and its just a tough decision to make...

Dipping back in? Just code. Take some free classes on webdev, contribute to open source, build a portfolio of projects you can show off, you will get your foot in the door somewhere that might be a little crappy, but after a year or two it should be much easier for you to at least get a shot at a FAANG or a much better company.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#177

Post by organsnyder » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:13 PM UTC

ellisv wrote: post #168

downerending wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment Just wait until you turn 50...

Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo) to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new career?

Build and cultivate your professional network. The more senior you are (in position and age), the more you're hired via connections rather than resume.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#178

Post by UncleOxidant » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

mAEStro-paNDa wrote: post #137

sosborn wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> About 90% of reporters are left of center How would one even go about defining what center is? And when we say "left of center," how far to the left are we talking about?

This is an important point. One could argue, and some have, that the center of US political discourse is actually firmly right of center, especially when compared to European nations for example.

The US has been a right-of-center country since at least Reagan.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#179

Post by eclipxe » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:16 PM UTC

mooreds wrote: post #68

skrowl wrote: post #11

All 3 stock indexes record high opening. Consumer confidence 20 year high. Enormous USMCA trade deal finally passed by US Congress after the House sat on it for a year. Reuters just salivating over finding something they can spin as negative about the current economy.

Here's a little more sober analysis: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/01/bls-job-openings-... By someone who has been following the jolts numbers for years.

Calculated Risk has been "sky is falling" for many years. Someone taking their advice over the last 12 years would be much worse off than doing the opposite of what they encourage.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#180

Post by yodsanklai » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 6:17 PM UTC

borkt wrote: post #150

boernard wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and there are many many HR departments going on a hunt for these people that got laid off

Is any tech worker seriously that desirable still that they are being hounded immediately after getting fired? I entered college in 2004 and transferred out of software engineering, feeling that developer/engineer jobs would quickly become the auto mechanic of the 21st century and wages at the grunt level would fall in line. I also didn't feel fulfilled with sitting at a computer all day. Fast forward to now, and whi…

> while I work as a Civil Engineer

Not answering your question, but just sharing some anecdote. A good friend of mine is a (unhappy) Civil Engineer and became passionate about programming. It's a hobby that he discovered later in his life. I can tell he's actually quite good (even though he lacks some fundamentals but he could learn fast). Unfortunately, I don't think he would be given a chance in company (here in France). My feeling is that the system is rather rigid, and there are some expectations for a junior developer job (a degree in the field, being less than 30). An option he could take and I think would work, is to take a one year CS program designed for people with different background. Some universities offer this type of program and it seems to work. Actually, I used to teach in such a program and the students were a joy to work with.