U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#141

Post by magduf » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:46 PM UTC

lame-robot-hoax wrote: post #72

skrowl wrote: post #11

All 3 stock indexes record high opening. Consumer confidence 20 year high. Enormous USMCA trade deal finally passed by US Congress after the House sat on it for a year. Reuters just salivating over finding something they can spin as negative about the current economy.

Good god, is this supposed to be ironic? Imagine trying to paint Reuters as biased. Next thing you’ll be telling me that the Associated Press is biased as well. And really? USMCA? You mean NAFTA 2.0? Imagine acting like “passing” USMCA has any meaning. It’s just NAFTA. Tell me when we pass the TPP. Oh wait, we messed up and now that ship has sailed without us. This is news whether you like it or not. Sorry, there is…

>Tell me when we pass the TPP. Oh wait, we messed up and now that ship has sailed without us.

Which is a good thing. The TPP was a horrible giveaway to the IP industries. A trans-pacific trade deal like that is a good idea in theory, but not after US politicians kowtow to Hollywood and Disney and work that crap into the treaty.

The remaining countries forging their own trade deal are better off without the US screwing it up.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#142

Post by briandear » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:47 PM UTC

melling wrote: post #101

skrowl wrote: post #11

All 3 stock indexes record high opening. Consumer confidence 20 year high. Enormous USMCA trade deal finally passed by US Congress after the House sat on it for a year. Reuters just salivating over finding something they can spin as negative about the current economy.

You sound like you might be suffering from a slightly religious view of politics. I’d recommend just setting all that aside and try looking at all the data. Consumer confidence is often pretty high before a sudden crash, for example. It doesn’t mean a whole lot. Using selection bias (only looking at the good things that confirm your beliefs) is a bad formula. Sooner or later we’ll have recession. It may or may not be…

Giving Jimmy Carter credit for the boom in the 1980s is a bit of a stretch. Using that logic, George HW Bush should be credited with the boom during the Clinton years.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#143

Post by magduf » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:47 PM UTC

12xo wrote: post #110

outside1234 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What amazes me is how easy it is for people to be radicalized by watching a single news source. My parents have literally been radicalized from normal moderate folks to "crazy conspiracy people" by watching Fox News and, I suspect, this is a broadly true statement amongst a very large swath of the elderly population.

Older Americans come from a time when the Man on the TV or Radio spoke the truth, with honor and integrity and did so citing facts and experts. They still hold onto this ethos and therefore believe - like they believe a preacher, that the words and opinions are real and factual and worthy of regard... This is why FOXNews and talk radio skews so heavily to people over 60 and is also why its so effective.

That's not exactly what we're seeing with right-wing people. They will happily tell you that NYT, WaPo, CNN, AP, Reuters, etc. are all "fake news" because their far-right "news" sources tell them so.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#144

Post by tathougies » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:49 PM UTC

JediWing wrote: post #130

briandear wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That 10% number has certainly been making the rounds, almost like a talking point. However, that’s literal nonsense. > People are finally starting to notice and point out. Incorrectly. Every person in America with a pension or a retirement account has significant exposure to the stock market. Universities and their endowments, which make institutionally awarded need based financial aid possible directly benefit from…

I think there's a bit of talking past one another here. Certainly the many Americans who have retirement plans benefit from stocks increasing, as do the very wealthy who own large shares of stocks in non-retirement earnings. However, the context of the discussion is over what term. The markets are subject to boom and bust cycles. Over the 40 or so year term of retirement plans, there's not a whole lot that a 20 or 30…

I mean a good stock market makes it easier for companies to raise funds and thus to expand and employ more people. The purpose of the stock market is ultimately not to provide and asset class so much as it is to ease raising large amounts of money companies need to grow.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#145

Post by mech1234 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:49 PM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #124

Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor: > According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a... Ta…

>The unemployment rate, at 4 percent, is currently 30 basis points from its recent low.

Seems like the article is trying really hard to imply that the 50 basic point increase has already occurred, even though it has not occurred.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#146

Post by tathougies » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

grecy wrote: post #73

Turing_Machine wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings. This is absolutely not true. Most pension plans are at least partially invested in stocks.

And what percentage of the poorest 50% of Americans have even $5,000 in any kind of retirement savings?

Well 52 - 60 percent of Americans own stocks so more (probably a good amount more) than 2 - 10 percent of the bottom fifty percent must own stocks, directly or indirectly

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#147

Post by snarf21 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #124

Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor: > According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a... Ta…

Add in the bad monetary policy that has Fortune 500 companies borrowing money at 0% to buyback stocks. Then the Democrats are going to want to rollback the Trump tax cuts and that will be the beginning. However, I think we need a bad recession or pop to bring things back to normal instead of just easing the pressure slightly. Otherwise the real crash will be even bigger.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#148

Post by 12xo » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

12xo wrote: post #110

outside1234 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What amazes me is how easy it is for people to be radicalized by watching a single news source. My parents have literally been radicalized from normal moderate folks to "crazy conspiracy people" by watching Fox News and, I suspect, this is a broadly true statement amongst a very large swath of the elderly population.

Older Americans come from a time when the Man on the TV or Radio spoke the truth, with honor and integrity and did so citing facts and experts. They still hold onto this ethos and therefore believe - like they believe a preacher, that the words and opinions are real and factual and worthy of regard... This is why FOXNews and talk radio skews so heavily to people over 60 and is also why its so effective.

It is exactly what we're seeing. They have been trusting the Man on the TV/Radio for so long, they trust him when he tells them that THE OTHER guys are lying to you... Funny how that works.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#149

Post by smileysteve » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

12xo wrote: post #110

outside1234 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What amazes me is how easy it is for people to be radicalized by watching a single news source. My parents have literally been radicalized from normal moderate folks to "crazy conspiracy people" by watching Fox News and, I suspect, this is a broadly true statement amongst a very large swath of the elderly population.

Older Americans come from a time when the Man on the TV or Radio spoke the truth, with honor and integrity and did so citing facts and experts. They still hold onto this ethos and therefore believe - like they believe a preacher, that the words and opinions are real and factual and worthy of regard... This is why FOXNews and talk radio skews so heavily to people over 60 and is also why its so effective.

> Older Americans come from a time when the Man on the TV or Radio spoke the truth, with honor and integrity and did so citing facts and experts.

There's definitely information asymmetry involved, but a history or US in wars makes this nostalgia bias at best.

Examples;

- US Involvement in Vietnam

- Remember the Lusitania, The Zimmerman Telegram WWII

- USS Maine

- US annexation of Mexico

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#150

Post by borkt » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

boernard wrote: post #113

outside1234 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That won't last forever. I know Mozilla and Digital Ocean just had layoffs.

... and there are many many HR departments going on a hunt for these people that got laid off

Is any tech worker seriously that desirable still that they are being hounded immediately after getting fired? I entered college in 2004 and transferred out of software engineering, feeling that developer/engineer jobs would quickly become the auto mechanic of the 21st century and wages at the grunt level would fall in line. I also didn't feel fulfilled with sitting at a computer all day. Fast forward to now, and while I work as a Civil Engineer I still find myself sitting at a computer all day regardless. While the pay is completely reasonable, I probably would be just as happy with my day-to-day working on software, while making more money from how things are looking.

I grew up on IRC and building SMALL scripts starting in 5th or 6th grade for software of the day such as Palace, customizing small bits of code to rename items in the dreamcast version of Phantasy Star Online, etc. When I took the 1st year of software engineering classes at Cal Poly Software Engineering could code perfectly serviceable and had As/Bs.

What would be the best way for me to dip my toe back in and see the type of work I'd be doing working in tech in 2020? Is there a way to bring my skills up to the current day through free or paid remote coursework, and are there ways to get small freelance work I could use to build my resume? Are there any good blogs following someone who has taken a similar path?