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U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#121

Post by 12xo »

Domenic_S wrote: post #71
jayd16 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, "what are pension funds"? I don't have a pension. No one I know personally has a pensions. The younger or non-tech people I know have little to none in their 401k.

Don't know any state or federal workers? Traditional pensions are still offered by about 84% of state and local governments. That's cops, teachers, etc.

FYI - California teachers do not pay into SocialSecurity. Their pension is 100% on the backs of the tax payers of CA. Market performance is irrelevant as their pensions are paid regardless of performance.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#122

Post by ghaff »

dman wrote: post #112
jayd16 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, "what are pension funds"? I don't have a pension. No one I know personally has a pensions. The younger or non-tech people I know have little to none in their 401k.

No one in tech has a pension.

That is mostly true but not categorically so. I'm in tech and have one, albeit from an older company that's no longer around.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#123

Post by skrowl »

aerovistae wrote: post #27
skrowl wrote: post #11

All 3 stock indexes record high opening. Consumer confidence 20 year high. Enormous USMCA trade deal finally passed by US Congress after the House sat on it for a year. Reuters just salivating over finding something they can spin as negative about the current economy.

Except, of course, as people are finally starting to notice and point out, high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings.

You can't REALLY believe that only the top 10% of wage earners in the United States own stocks, right?

Please tell me you're just parroting something you heard and you don't actually think that.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#124

Post by aazaa »

Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession. It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor:

> According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a...

Taken with the yield curve inversion in 2019, and other leading indicators, it appears the US economy is headed for the first recession in over 10 years. If previous trends hold, it's within 12-18 months away.

Oddly enough, the stock market typically rallies from the yield curve inversion right into the next recession. So there's money to be made, but it's kind of like trying to gather nickels on the tracks as the locomotive barreling down on you blows its whistle.

However, policymakers will continue to tout the relatively low unemployment rate and booming stock market right into the recession (which can only be declared months after its start).

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#125

Post by Turing_Machine »

grecy wrote: post #73
Turing_Machine wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings. This is absolutely not true. Most pension plans are at least partially invested in stocks.

And what percentage of the poorest 50% of Americans have even $5,000 in any kind of retirement savings?

Nice goalpost shift. The original poster claimed that only 10% benefited. How did it change to 50%?

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#126

Post by auiya »

kccqzy wrote: post #94
aerovistae wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except, of course, as people are finally starting to notice and point out, high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings.

Definitely no. The popularity of 401k plans and as such makes the fortunes of many middle class Americans directly tied to gyrations of Wall Street.

More than one-third of Americans who work full-time have no access to pensions or retirement accounts such as 401(k)s that derive their value from financial assets like stocks and bonds. The percentage of workers covered by generous defined-benefit pension plans has declined from 62% in 1983 to 17% by 2016. While some economists consider an increase in the stock market to have a "wealth effect" that increases economic growth, economists like Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher believe those effects are limited. Make no mistake the stock market only benefits the upper class, and quite disproportionately so.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/opinion/bull-stock-market...

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#127

Post by ericd »

tomtheelder wrote: post #100
Domenic_S wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nearly 22 million people work for the state, federal, and local governments, nearly 20% of the active workforce. https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/999001.htm

Okay so adding those numbers with the private sector ones you still get that the vast majority of American's aren't benefiting.

You’re also forgetting all the people without pensions, but with IRAs and/or 401ks. And then the many more with brokerage accounts. And young people seem to have jumped headlong into Robinhood.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#128

Post by brewdad »

kccqzy wrote: post #94
aerovistae wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except, of course, as people are finally starting to notice and point out, high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings.

Definitely no. The popularity of 401k plans and as such makes the fortunes of many middle class Americans directly tied to gyrations of Wall Street.

The median 401k balance for 40-49 year olds is $36,000 [0]. These are adults who, for the most part, have never had access to pensions, only to 401k plans. They are about midway between entering the workforce and retirement. They, as a group, are nowhere near prepared to retire. Ever.

A booming stock market is irrelevant to most Americans.

[0]: https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/the-average-401...

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#129

Post by diogenescynic »

mywittyname wrote: post #10

This happened yesterday: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-16/u-s-to-ch... I can't help but see a relationship here between bad economic news and attempts to curb the release of such.

That had to do with certain outlets like Bloomberg and Reuters getting market data before everyone else. Nothing nefarious that I can tell.

Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years

#130

Post by JediWing »

briandear wrote: post #116
aerovistae wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except, of course, as people are finally starting to notice and point out, high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings.

That 10% number has certainly been making the rounds, almost like a talking point. However, that’s literal nonsense. > People are finally starting to notice and point out. Incorrectly. Every person in America with a pension or a retirement account has significant exposure to the stock market. Universities and their endowments, which make institutionally awarded need based financial aid possible directly benefit from…

I think there's a bit of talking past one another here. Certainly the many Americans who have retirement plans benefit from stocks increasing, as do the very wealthy who own large shares of stocks in non-retirement earnings.

However, the context of the discussion is over what term.

The markets are subject to boom and bust cycles. Over the 40 or so year term of retirement plans, there's not a whole lot that a 20 or 30-something can do to benefit from a clearly bull market.

I know that day-to-day, I'm not wealthier or better off because the stock market is doing well. My paycheck doesn't change. I can't sell any stocks to cash in.

And that is the context of the discussion: not that over the long term stocks go up and when you retire you reap the benefits, but rather that over the short term, 90% of the people don't suddenly get enhanced quality of life because the stock market is doing well.

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