Earlier quoted context omitted.
Venture capitalist success is indistinguishable from randomness. It's pure, unadulterated luck. "The best VCs are thinkers and visionaries" is post-hoc bullshit justifications to make their wealth seem the result of wits and hard work, and not just the product of luck + the pre-existing capital to invest.
Ron Conway alone disproves your thesis. Some people are just very good. Some prescriptions are also very good, like Sequoia or Kleiner Perkins. And the success of the good is not purely Matthew Effect, rich gets richer stuff, as Andreesen Horowitz shows. If you’re good enough you can go from not a VC firm to top 5 VC firm in under five years.
VCs Are Just Tired
51–60 of 91 posts
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#52Everyone is tired because they are overworked: engineers, doctors, lawyers, accountants, bankers, police, cooks, janitors. Long shifts, split shifts, long commutes, homework, constant interruptions, questionable management practices, weak labor laws, weak enforcement thereof, asymmetric legal costs, self-training on your own time, expectations of faster and faster turnaround times, less and less support staff...
Who's investigating the reasons behind all the burnout and erosion everywhere ?
Remedies? Either cultural (it just becomes unthinkable to work beyond X, because that's taboo) or legal (limits on how much you're allowed to work).
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who's investigating the reasons behind all the burnout and erosion everywhere ?
I think it's just a consequence of a free market/capitalism. Everyone is competing w/ everyone, so working as hard as possible, to beat the competition. Remedies? Either cultural (it just becomes unthinkable to work beyond X, because that's taboo) or legal (limits on how much you're allowed to work).
Being productive doesn't give you more free time. It just means that you get more work.
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#54It's almost as if capital is too concentrated, to the point that the people with who control it don't know what to do with it. Oh wait. The basis of capitalism is markets, and the wisdom of the crowd (the "invisible hand") controlling them and making them efficient. VC's (and wealth concentration in general) are the opposite of that. They are the very-much-visible hand. We'd solve this problem with progressive taxati…
> IMO, if you believe in free markets, then your position is inconsistent if you also believe if you also believe in unconstrained wealth collection. But if you believe in free markets, then your position is also inconsistent if you don't believe in unconstrained wealth collection. Because that's one of the things that the market sometimes does when it's free. And I'm sure that someone will say "That means that the i…
The original point the poster made still stands. The point of the invisible hand is to parallelize capital expenditure decisions. Once everything consolidates in a few hands, the market is no longer operating in that mode. You have few people making increasingly large and underinformed decisions about capital movement, which coincidentally, further constrains the ability for money to move throughout the world unless your people sitting on top of capital are spending each and every day doing nothing but trying to unload capital to facilitate the rest of the world's business.
The idea of a Free Market does not discount the possibility of Market participants organizing to redistribute and reprime the Market optimizer in the name of shifting away from destabilizing economic circumstances. After all,a market that can no longer function due to civil unrest makes no one but the engines of violence any money.
The sooner people start to to take that to heart, the better we'll all end up.
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
“Curious conversation” means working towards understanding, as distinct from heaping blame. In all the examples cited, there are many actors and circumstances that have brought these things about; investors, sure, but also customer demand and behavior, technological evolution, social and economic factors at micro and macro scales, and countless millennia of evolution. Angry scapegoating might be briefly cathartic but…
This is like a pharmaceutical company that dumped opioids on the public through legislature, perverting the medical community, advertising and reputation saying "well there are many factors and your brain has countless millennia of evolution to seek out these compounds". Sorry, I just don't buy it. People can be wrong, and in fact it is necessary for people to be able to be wrong and state their case and sometimes em…
If there was anybody who would be motivated to scapegoat a single actor or cause for dysfunction in the medical industry it's me.
I've endured debilitating health challenges, including severe pain, for almost half my life. I've had plenty of time and motivation to research and contemplate everything that's wrong with the medical system, including corrupt dealings between pharmaceutical companies, regulators, research institutions and medical practitioners.
And, much like apportioning blame to VCs, there is some truth to this point of view.
But it's not the whole story.
At least as significant a factor is that there is a real, legitimate need for pharmaceutical opioids, and a widespread epidemic of "pain" that is little-understood by mainstream medical researchers and practitioners, which is mostly to do with the fact that physiology is extremely complex and still only partially understood.
Fortunately, I've never had to turn to opioids or other pharmaceuticals to treat my pain conditions, and after many years of research and experimentation, have been able to become pain-free via natural - though unconventional - approaches.
I think it would be great if other people had the access and motivation I've had to achieve good health, rather than ending up dependent on opioids or languishing in other ways.
But 10+ years of thinking about it, including plenty of, yes, curious conversation, has taught me that problems in the medical system can't all be simplistically blamed on corrupt pharmaceutical companies.
> tonal arguments to dismiss the hardest of questions
What "hard questions" was the root commenter raising?
Real "hard questions" involve honestly considering all facets of a topic, and taking on the responsibility of contributing to the formulation solutions that are practical and effective.
> Perhaps this is not a true intellectual community
In what way was the root comment more "intellectual" than what I'm advocating?
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who's investigating the reasons behind all the burnout and erosion everywhere ?
I think it's just a consequence of a free market/capitalism. Everyone is competing w/ everyone, so working as hard as possible, to beat the competition. Remedies? Either cultural (it just becomes unthinkable to work beyond X, because that's taboo) or legal (limits on how much you're allowed to work).
I'm convinced that a lot of people would be ready to work 'harder' when the work is well organized and done.
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
How many is 'a lot'?
I don’t know but I think a lot of people (no dependents) could live off $1M in invested savings for the rest of their life. 5-10 years in a managerial class role nets many that much.
Certainly there is an argument to be made for working less and living with less, but for most people $1M invested doesn't check out. If you're relying solely on returns from that investment, then conservatively you can only safely withdraw 3-4%, which works out to 30-40k a year. That's close to full time on minimum wage in some states. While that's enough to survive, not sure if that'd be a fulfilling life for most, even while single. What happens if you have a family later?
EDIT: Also not sure how many can actually save that much in 5-10 years. That's 100k - 200k of savings after tax. Even with compound interest, that's pretty tough for most I would think.
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#58Everyone is tired because they are overworked: engineers, doctors, lawyers, accountants, bankers, police, cooks, janitors. Long shifts, split shifts, long commutes, homework, constant interruptions, questionable management practices, weak labor laws, weak enforcement thereof, asymmetric legal costs, self-training on your own time, expectations of faster and faster turnaround times, less and less support staff...
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#59This is a great article, especially because the solution is right there in the text: > forcing everyone to chase the same set of SaaS companies > everyone can read the gridiron of SaaS metrics There was a perfect storm: huge seed rounds leading traditional firms to move upmarket, VCs raising larger funds and so needing to hit the winners hard, which caused Series A metrics to swell, and so VCs are all chasing the sam…
a16z, benchmark, SV angles (when they were around), etc. only got where they are by taking massive risk - on founders with no track record and often just a prototype of demo.
Now, just to get a seed round, you need a fully featured product, with distribution and revenue.
It just feels like the wonder and risk of creating world changing tech without worrying about financial outcome is dead. Which, honestly makes sense from an investment thesis standpoint. You minimize risk by following the leader or investing later stage. It’s growth equity, not true or traditional VC that requires a 10x return. Most VCs are happy with 1.5-3x now (relatively happy).
Re: VCs Are Just Tired
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's just a consequence of a free market/capitalism. Everyone is competing w/ everyone, so working as hard as possible, to beat the competition. Remedies? Either cultural (it just becomes unthinkable to work beyond X, because that's taboo) or legal (limits on how much you're allowed to work).
It's also because the productivity gains that we have is captured by businesses rather than the employees. Being productive doesn't give you more free time. It just means that you get more work.
"Businesses" don't really do much of anything. What you really mean is the billionaire executives at the top of them.