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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#71

Post by SEJeff »

docbrown wrote: post #24
beamatronic wrote: post #2

The horror stories about 3 month wait for parts and the videos of water intruding into new vehicles, are keeping me away.

Tesla has always had body alignment issues since their first attempt, the Model S. It’s honestly quite unfortunate because these models are suppose to be a shiny example of American manual labor pushing out the new luxury model that would set Tesla up to enter the mid level market with a Model 3. Sadly, technological advances, a backlog of orders, and minimal factory space, all contributed to a decline in quality. Do…

The quality on the 3 is fine. I've heard so many panel gap anecdotes and "fit and finish" problem that I was a bit excessive in my inspection of my Model 3 before I took delivery (November 2018). It was fine. There are no quality problems that I've been able to ascertain. The only real kind of weird thing is the polarized glass on the roof turns a really strange but beautiful color when it gets wet.

The car drives like nothing I've ever driven, not even a higher end mercedes.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#72

Post by klhiouyert98 »

rjkennedy98 wrote: post #47
klhiouyert98 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't fight meme magic. Old skool investors don't understand this yet. They see Elon smoking pot and they short. They see him dancing, they short again. They see his bumbling presentation skills and smashed CyberTruck windows, have a laugh and put one more billion against him. And then they open his twitter and you can imagine what they do when they see him posting absolute units of a sheep... https://fortune.com…

I feel this is a very small part of it. There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. And it could go on and on. Tesla, lets face it, is a cult stock. If you believe in the valuation, that's fine, but there have been plenty of bubbles over the years and especially recently (bitcoin and weedstocks come…

I think the recent bump is because (some) investors are starting to understand that CyberTruck will not be a flop as widely predicted on it's launch. Again, meme-magic. If the CyberTruck was unveiled by BMW or Ford, the response would have been much more muted.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#73

Post by [deleted] »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #23
oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

If you google "ford enterprise value" and "tesla enterprise value" you get values of 156B and 86B, respectively. Stockholders are not the only people who have claims on the liquidation value and future profits of a company. Bondholders and pensioners do as well. Market cap != valuation.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#74

Post by MBCook »

qaq wrote: post #41
MBCook wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ve been hearing that for years. What keeps holding it back? Why aren’t things smooth yet?

Because they are ramping up rapidly?

It’s just that every time it seems like they might be about to start to get stable they launch some new vehicle and we go through another period of ‘ramping up’. The older vehicles don’t seem to get stable even though the S has been out for years now. People use the 3 (or truck or...) as the excuse for why things are still a bit rough.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#75

Post by londons_explore »

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

A company with real time telemetry from all cars all the time ought to blow a traditional automaker out of the water with reliability.

They can do things like measure vibration of a particular circuit board across the fleet, compare that to the design specs, and be able to predict failure probability a long time ahead of real failures. In turn, they can then revise designs to avoid a failure mode that hasn't even occurred yet. A failure that would have affected millions of cars now only affects thousands.

Lots of things can be mitigated with firmware changes - for example, if you see a specific MOSFET getting hotter than expected during regen braking in cold climates, you can adjust the drive parameters to avoid shootthrough, preventing it failing 10 years down the line.

Couple that with tesla employing service personnel ought to mean they can get photos from a failed part direct to an engineer within a few hours to see if a redesign is warranted. You can't easily get that through third party repair shops.

Overall, Tesla seems to have so many advantages in the reliability/quality department, yet news articles don't seem to match. I wonder why?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#76

Post by kbutler »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #23
oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

If you google "ford enterprise value" and "tesla enterprise value" you get values of 156B and 86B, respectively. Stockholders are not the only people who have claims on the liquidation value and future profits of a company. Bondholders and pensioners do as well. Market cap != valuation.

Right, those other claim holders represent reductions in the value of the company.

If I borrow $300 billion (heh) and call myself a car company, that doesn't make me a more valuable company than Ford and Tesla combined - my net worth hasn't changed.

Market cap == (perceived) value.

Enterprise value is the COST TO PURCHASE the company, if I'm considering buying it.

Like buying a used car and assuming payments:

  enterprise value (real cost) = purchase price + loan balance - coins under the seats

  Market cap is the cash I have to pay up-front
  Debt is the new debt I will have to pay when I own it.
  Cash-on-hand is the cash I get back when I buy it

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#77

Post by x2f10 »

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

>who can compete with Tesla

Perhaps in theory. In reality, Ford & GM are slow to move, slow to adopt, and not seen as a "luxury" / "cool" car manufacturer. I am not a Tesla fanatic, but you must admit it seems they're gaining a bigger and bigger competitive advantage.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#78

Post by m4tthumphrey »

typon wrote: post #67
brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issue…

I've had these issues on my Seat Leon in the past, ie not a Tesla. I am based in the UK and its pretty rare for temperatures to drop below 0 and it still happens.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#79

Post by ecwilson »

Current valuations, Tesla and Apple among the most prominent, are so far disconnected from reality that it echoes the dot com bubble. But this time, the cause is not dot com mania -- but buybacks, driven by reckless financial policy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENmRB6aVAAEziTn?format=jpg&name=...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#80

Post by phildawes »

sriram_sun wrote: post #25
oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Would you invest in Taxi cab companies or App based car rides?

depends on the price
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