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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#51
Anyone remember Volkswagen shares at 1000€ in October 2008? This was a textbook example of a shortsqueeze. One German billionaire saw that the share value was at a ridiculous high level, so he shorted it. He was correct, but too early, so he lost all his money and committed suicide.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#52

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Isn't it more likely speculation on future stock price than a belief in real world performance? People can pretend it's due to diligent research resulting in a confident position that Tesla will come out on top, but that sounds more like someone trying to create a narrative rather than admitting a lot of people are gambling.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#53

For a while TSLA had an absurd amount of short positions against it, IIRC something like an order of magnitude more than other companies. Perhaps we are seeing a short squeeze? I'd love to see data (and interpretation) on how this has changed.

You can't fight meme magic. Old skool investors don't understand this yet. They see Elon smoking pot and they short. They see him dancing, they short again. They see his bumbling presentation skills and smashed CyberTruck windows, have a laugh and put one more billion against him. And then they open his twitter and you can imagine what they do when they see him posting absolute units of a sheep... https://fortune.com…

In the long term, you can’t fight the balance sheet and income statement either. As in a Ponzi scheme, you simply run out of “greater fools.”

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#54
post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I've had my 3 for a month. You can tell it was built "minimally" so that it can be affordable, but the interior doesn't feel cheap. The driving experience is amazing, I never want to go back to gas cars now.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#55

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#56
post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

My wife has a model 3. I have a BMW 535i. I used to love my BMW. Now I beg my wife to drive the Tesla, because the BMW feels like a clunky dinosaur. I agree that Teslas are generally not the most beautiful cars, but the torque, the handling, the software-driven features, and the lack of gas station stops makes up for it, and more. Oh, and as a software guy, the self-driving stuff is really fun to watch evolve.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#57
post #43

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

I read a different analysis [0] arguing that comparing the market cap of Tesla to that of Ford and GM isn't really comparing apples to apples, since the latter have enormous pension fund liabilities. 0: https://mondaynote.com/tesla-and-apple-valuation-questions-c...

Thanks for the article, very insightful!

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#58
As is the case with Apple, Tesla is a cult and obviously Musk learned from Steve Jobs that cults beat facts, cults create empires and make bad as equal as good and sane people can do nothing about it. That's how the great empires and religions were built in the old days and that's how "great" companies are being built today.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#59
post #27
post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I bought a Model 3 a year ago (Dec '18). I liked it so much that, when my wife's Audi lease expired in July, she also got a Model 3 (at least they're different colors...) The only issue either of us has had is one of the license plate screws stripped the rubber bushing and I had to get a replacement bushing. Would definitely buy another car from them. In fact, the thing I hate most about the business travel I have to…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#60

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

  > Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the 
  > valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy
  > a lot of their parts and/or contract out work.
In that respect, they remind me of Apple. However, I thought cars and their component parts were considered to be commodities. Are investors now arguing that not having hardware design know-how is going to hurt the big car companies?
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