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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#41
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once Tesla's operations are running smoothly, most of these issues should fix themselves.

We’ve been hearing that for years. What keeps holding it back? Why aren’t things smooth yet?

Because they are ramping up rapidly?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#42

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Would you invest in Taxi cab companies or App based car rides?

My main point is that the market cap seems a bit excessive. I can see Tesla having a competitive advantage, and I also see the bet some investors are making on it disrupting the car industry. But after reading those numbers, it just shocked me a little.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#43

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

I read a different analysis [0] arguing that comparing the market cap of Tesla to that of Ford and GM isn't really comparing apples to apples, since the latter have enormous pension fund liabilities.

0: https://mondaynote.com/tesla-and-apple-valuation-questions-c...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#44

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Would you invest in Taxi cab companies or App based car rides?

Suppose it depends if you are pre IPO investor that is in on the scam or a sucker retail investor post IPO who will be stuck with the bag.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#46
post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

My experience with highly priced BMW left me with the impression there is no real difference anymore unless someone thinks having knobs and buttons everywhere is a sign of quality. BMWs can be nice, but they (at least mine) have had some persistent issues.

Sometimes I get the feeling, people think e.g BMWs are better because they are BMWs. Audi fans are also especially fond of their 'quality' even though this is highly subjective.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#47

For a while TSLA had an absurd amount of short positions against it, IIRC something like an order of magnitude more than other companies. Perhaps we are seeing a short squeeze? I'd love to see data (and interpretation) on how this has changed.

You can't fight meme magic. Old skool investors don't understand this yet. They see Elon smoking pot and they short. They see him dancing, they short again. They see his bumbling presentation skills and smashed CyberTruck windows, have a laugh and put one more billion against him. And then they open his twitter and you can imagine what they do when they see him posting absolute units of a sheep... https://fortune.com…

I feel this is a very small part of it. There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. And it could go on and on. Tesla, lets face it, is a cult stock. If you believe in the valuation, that's fine, but there have been plenty of bubbles over the years and especially recently (bitcoin and weedstocks come to mind), and Tesla would not be the first item driven to loft valuations based on unrealistic expectations.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#48
post #32

opening up business in china does a funny thing to a stock, wall street loves china

Er no. It was the fact that the govt gave the Tusk ~$2bn of free money (and when the money was running out i.e. it really changed the narrative around the stock).

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#49
post #29

For a while TSLA had an absurd amount of short positions against it, IIRC something like an order of magnitude more than other companies. Perhaps we are seeing a short squeeze? I'd love to see data (and interpretation) on how this has changed.

The short interest is roughly the same it has been[0]. This has astonished many of us longs and people that specialize in short selling[1]. The fact that the price has risen substantially with little short covering means new long buyers have driven the stock price higher and shorts have held firm. 0: https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1216756156821057538?s=20 1: https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1215383701053476875?s=…

Doesnt that chart show that short interest has decreased quite a bit since June?

There are still plenty of shorts though.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#50

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

I do wish people wouldn't say "valuable" when they mean "expensive".
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