11–20 of 32 posts
Science PhD = Smart + willing to follow orders + conforming + able to focus on something for years. You'd be foolish not to hire one.
The best science PhDs are neither willing to follow orders nor conforming, but you're right about #1 and 4 :)
So P(jobless|PhD) = 0.017, whereas P(jobless) = 0.066 According to Baye's Theorem, the P(PhD|jobless) = P(jobless|PhD)*P(PhD)/P(jobless) Where according to [1], P(PhD) = 0.01 (for all PhDs) so assuming roughly half are science, P(PhD) = 0.005, and we get P(PhD|jobless) = 0.0013, or 0.13%, which means that roughly 1 out of every 1000 jobless people has a PhD. [1] http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTable?_bm=y&-geo…
(I have a PhD. In probability.)
So P(jobless|PhD) = 0.017, whereas P(jobless) = 0.066 According to Baye's Theorem, the P(PhD|jobless) = P(jobless|PhD)*P(PhD)/P(jobless) Where according to [1], P(PhD) = 0.01 (for all PhDs) so assuming roughly half are science, P(PhD) = 0.005, and we get P(PhD|jobless) = 0.0013, or 0.13%, which means that roughly 1 out of every 1000 jobless people has a PhD. [1] http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTable?_bm=y&-geo…
But who cares about P(PhD|jobless)? P(jobless|PhD) is important; it's a measure of how much job security a PhD leads to. But P(PhD|jobless) is only important if you're a jobless PhD and you want to know what your chances of finding someone else who's survived grad school in the unemployment line. I wouldn't know how to interpret "1 out of every n jobless people has a PhD"; the first thing I'd ask is "what proportion…
No, it is a measure of how much job security a PhD is correlated with. I believe that the qualities that lead to one being able to complete a PhD are positively correlated with being able to get and hold a job. Therefore you need to restrict to just those people you think could get a PhD to figure out how much the PhD helps or hurts you.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But who cares about P(PhD|jobless)? P(jobless|PhD) is important; it's a measure of how much job security a PhD leads to. But P(PhD|jobless) is only important if you're a jobless PhD and you want to know what your chances of finding someone else who's survived grad school in the unemployment line. I wouldn't know how to interpret "1 out of every n jobless people has a PhD"; the first thing I'd ask is "what proportion…
P(jobless|PhD) is important; it's a measure of how much job security a PhD leads to. No, it is a measure of how much job security a PhD is correlated with. I believe that the qualities that lead to one being able to complete a PhD are positively correlated with being able to get and hold a job. Therefore you need to restrict to just those people you think could get a PhD to figure out how much the PhD helps or hurts…
What proportion of those jobs are below minimum wage post-doc positions? The unemployment rate for panhandlers is also very low, very few of them face redundancy
What proportion of those jobs are below minimum wage post-doc positions? Probably not very many. Typical postdoc pay is $40-60k/year depending on where the job is located ($40k in Urbana-Champaigne, $60k NYC or Chicago). That's about 2-4x lower than what the postdoc could get in the outside world, but it's a far cry from minimum wage.
I say thee "Ha!", sir. The offers I was getting for post-docs were consistently on or below the low end of that range, even in San Francisco (which ain't cheap).
Probably one of the biggest nudges I had away from academia was the realization that as a post-doc, I'd have a lower standard of living than I did as a graduate student. It didn't seem like a smart trend to follow.
So P(jobless|PhD) = 0.017, whereas P(jobless) = 0.066 According to Baye's Theorem, the P(PhD|jobless) = P(jobless|PhD)*P(PhD)/P(jobless) Where according to [1], P(PhD) = 0.01 (for all PhDs) so assuming roughly half are science, P(PhD) = 0.005, and we get P(PhD|jobless) = 0.0013, or 0.13%, which means that roughly 1 out of every 1000 jobless people has a PhD. [1] http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTable?_bm=y&-geo…
But who cares about P(PhD|jobless)? P(jobless|PhD) is important; it's a measure of how much job security a PhD leads to. But P(PhD|jobless) is only important if you're a jobless PhD and you want to know what your chances of finding someone else who's survived grad school in the unemployment line. I wouldn't know how to interpret "1 out of every n jobless people has a PhD"; the first thing I'd ask is "what proportion…
What proportion of those jobs are below minimum wage post-doc positions? The unemployment rate for panhandlers is also very low, very few of them face redundancy
What proportion of those jobs are below minimum wage post-doc positions? Probably not very many. Typical postdoc pay is $40-60k/year depending on where the job is located ($40k in Urbana-Champaigne, $60k NYC or Chicago). That's about 2-4x lower than what the postdoc could get in the outside world, but it's a far cry from minimum wage.
Science PhD = Smart + willing to follow orders + conforming + able to focus on something for years. You'd be foolish not to hire one.
The best science PhDs are neither willing to follow orders nor conforming, but you're right about #1 and 4 :)
1. it has not been proved to work,
2. it didn't work in a specific case,
3. my replacement method is mathematically rigorous.
And that is why I work for a megacorp, at the moment.