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Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

bmj.com

51–60 of 88 posts

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#51

uhh guessing it halves the % of failures is what they actually mean 30k deaths / 4 million procedures is 0.75% death rate going from 99.25% to 99.6% survival isn't doubling anything also 'success' doesn't appear anywhere in this article, guessing '30 day mortality' is the thing they're measuring

For context for future readers: The submitted title was "Choosing Monday for a surgery increases your chance of success 2 times", and has since been changed.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22020870

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#52
post #2

Almost certainly the selection bias plays a major role - surgeries done early in a week are different than those scheduled later in the week.

They do take this into account in the text. Odds ratios imply less risky procedures were normally done on weekends anyway, and you see the effect on all days other than Monday (to a lesser extent).

Yes, they do mention this - though it can be challenging to account for all factors. You can't quite correct for variables that are not collected/known.

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#53
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were a surgeon, after a few days off of leisure to rewind, I certainly wouldn't start with my most risky, potentially problematic cases. Instead, I would try to pick operations that were the most straightforward. These would be almost like "warm ups" for more complex surgeries I would do later in the week. I'm also not a surgeon...

Sure, but that implies that surgeons control the operating room schedules. I am not sure that's true (it might be), but it's a contested resource in most hospitals.

Outside of emergency surgeries, I imagine anything scheduled that isn't of immediate risk surgeons have a reasonable amount of control over, given of course the magnitude and distribution of surgeries that need performed.

I can't imagine they don't look at their schedules regularly and talk to whomever does scheduling to make their lives more bearable.

When they're on ER rotation, surgeons of course really have no possible way to manage this. My question would be: what's the ratio of emergency to planned/scheduled operations?

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no expert but aren't you exposing one patient to the previous patient's poop? There could be anything from a lovely c-diff payload to something the next guy is allegeric to like nuts. As a layperson it hardly seems harmless.

I have a feeling OP means they are sterilized or autoclaved but some (now non-dangerous) particles remain as there is no medical point in thoroughly cleaning them after sterilization. Which would make sense.

People get a bit paranoid about how "clean" things are. I for one am not as concerned about how "clean" something looks but how potentially harmful it is to my livelihood. Looks can be deceiving, either way, without considering the entire situation.

Something that looks unclean can be sterile and harmless while something sterile and visually clean can be incredibly harmful as well (e.g. water with certain toxins or compounds).

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if they are and yet still contain fecal matter, how does going in the next day help? Your appointment is still after someone else's. Do they use a new scope?

Theoretically, some bacteria could have died overnight, which would be good. In general, simple instruments constructed of stainless steel or other solid non-porous materials are easy to wash off and autoclave. Complicated constructions in which multiple parts fit precisely inside other parts constructed of different materials are not easy to wash and autoclave. Scope manufacturers would be encouraged to design more…

I am trying to make sense of the original post while stipulating that the claim about it not being harmful is true. Assuming only sterile fecal matter is left on the device, how does having an appointment the next day help?

He seems to be suggesting that the fecal matter can be avoided by a gap of 16 hours versus a gap of (say) 30 minutes. I'm at a loss for the mechanism by which this might occur.

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#57

Pro tip: if getting a colonoscopy, always always get the first appointment of the day. I work in med devices and ummm those scopes still have poop left over between procedures. Its not harmful, but still...

Why are they not cleaned thoroughly? Just curious.

There are design issues currently being worked on to minimize crevices and spaces where bacteria may remain (redesign) or avoid the issue completely (design and implement disposable endoscopic heads)

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#58
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this reminds me a lot of the "Impossibly Hungry Judges" problem[0]. [0] http://nautil.us/blog/impossibly-hungry-judges

> If hunger had an effect on our mental resources of this magnitude, our society would fall into minor chaos every day at 11:45 a.m. ...this has potential! Scrape GitHub, find closed issues marked 'bug', do a blame on the offending line or lines, find the timestamp and plot.

It would be a pita to control for time zones, or even culturally different lunch times and eating habits

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically, some bacteria could have died overnight, which would be good. In general, simple instruments constructed of stainless steel or other solid non-porous materials are easy to wash off and autoclave. Complicated constructions in which multiple parts fit precisely inside other parts constructed of different materials are not easy to wash and autoclave. Scope manufacturers would be encouraged to design more…

I am trying to make sense of the original post while stipulating that the claim about it not being harmful is true. Assuming only sterile fecal matter is left on the device, how does having an appointment the next day help? He seems to be suggesting that the fecal matter can be avoided by a gap of 16 hours versus a gap of (say) 30 minutes. I'm at a loss for the mechanism by which this might occur.

I work on the video side of things and know nothing about the mech eng part. What I can tell you is that during the day there is definitely fecal matter in the scope one case to another during the day after after autoclave and sterilization. The first case of the day, the scope is clean. I don't know what's different about overnight processing in the sterile processing department. And I've seen this at many hospitals. There's been some startups that have tried sheaths to cover the scope but could not make it work.

Re: Day of week of procedure and 30 day mortality for elective surgery (2013)

#60

Pro tip: if getting a colonoscopy, always always get the first appointment of the day. I work in med devices and ummm those scopes still have poop left over between procedures. Its not harmful, but still...

Company that tried and failed to make a sheath: https://www.giejournal.org/article/S0016-5107(08)00014-X/abs...

Some of the clinical challenges https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S200103701...

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