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Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

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Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#101

Post by moltar »

solarkraft wrote: post #100
originldirgibl wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It didn't. I assume it took them three days to decide whether or not they could establish plausible deniability. Then the cell phone video of the second missile hitting the plane came out. It's easy to own up to mistakes when your hand is forced.

Does Russia have plausible deniability in the case of MH17?

Russia was never allowed to be part of investigation and offered to help with some data and was rejected.

Why would investigators reject possibly relevant data? It’s like if new evidence was brought up in court, but the judge would say “nah, thank you. We got enough. We know anyway who did it.”

Malaysia, who’s airline was shot, was also not allowed to participate in the investigation. I wonder why.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#102

Post by moltar »

nradov wrote: post #86
bigiain wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A possible explanation might be that the guys who actually fired the missile have spent three days trying to avoid blame, and that it's taken that long for the truth t make it's way up the leadership ladder. I suspect if I was an army grunt who'd fired of a shoulder launched missile only to realise just too late that it was a civilian airliner, I'd be AWOL and in hiding for _way_ longer than three days...

It was a large vehicle launched missile. That ordinance is individually tracked and multiple soldiers would know about any firing.

Maybe in the US. But don’t forget this is a different country.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#103

Post by synthc »

moltar wrote: post #101
solarkraft wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does Russia have plausible deniability in the case of MH17?

Russia was never allowed to be part of investigation and offered to help with some data and was rejected. Why would investigators reject possibly relevant data? It’s like if new evidence was brought up in court, but the judge would say “nah, thank you. We got enough. We know anyway who did it.” Malaysia, who’s airline was shot, was also not allowed to participate in the investigation. I wonder why.

Because they could spread misinformation or selectively disclose some information while withholding information that could harm them. It makes a ton of sense to not let the suspected parties join the investigation.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#104

Post by pintxo »

aaomidi wrote: post #94
Thorrez wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possibly multiple soldiers all decided to lie to keep it secret. Maybe their commander ordered them to keep it secret so he wouldn't get in trouble.

We're trying to find excuses when Iran has a history of sweeping things under the rug.

Name a country which does not try to sweep things under the rug constantly.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#105

Post by konart »

kumarvvr wrote: post #97
konart wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran actually did. No, Iran was _forced_ to do so, they don't two shits otherwise. Not so much preasure on Russia in case of MH17

Even if forced, it could deny it to high heaven. It is already isolated on the world stage, it is already under sanctions. It chose not to deny. However, I would suspect it did so, just to demonstrate the crazy things a world on the brink of war can bring about. Perhaps it's leaders calculated its to their benefit to own up and then say see what happens when nations are teetering on the edge of armed conflict. OTOH,…

>Russia was also forced

In my book forced means the result is achieved. Russia did not take responsibility == it wasn't forced to.

Pressed? Yes. But not forced to. And unline Russia Iran didn't have any room to deny it, really. In MH17 case you might have all kind of info that points toward Russia, but still not enough to force it to admit responsibility.

In Iran's case - it was their system (owned by them), operated by their gus, stationed on their territory etc. There is really nothing to deny here. And yet they only confirmed their mistake only after being forced to do so.

PS: also - yes, they calculated this would be better for them in perspective. (again, unlike MH17 case)

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#106

Post by _y5hn »

originldirgibl wrote: post #76
bigiain wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A possible explanation might be that the guys who actually fired the missile have spent three days trying to avoid blame, and that it's taken that long for the truth t make it's way up the leadership ladder. I suspect if I was an army grunt who'd fired of a shoulder launched missile only to realise just too late that it was a civilian airliner, I'd be AWOL and in hiding for _way_ longer than three days...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-missiles-expla... The Iranian military would undoubtedly have known which missile systems would have been deployed in the area as well as the launch and impact characteristics of such systems. It would also be fairly unbelievable if one of the launchers came back two missiles short without any follow up. While the thought-making process leading up to launch may take time…

Do you doubt there are lies between different layers of governance? And do you also doubt there's heavy cognitive dissonance required already in such theocratic nations?

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#107

Post by _y5hn »

perl4ever wrote: post #14
seibelj wrote: post #2

This is why my number 1 fear for the destruction of humanity is not climate change, plague, asteroids, or super volcanoes. It’s nuclear weapons. One wrong “Oops!” by the military and the entire world self-destructs in mutually assured annihilation. Absolutely depressing.

One oops and maybe something gets nuked, but I don't think it makes any sense to worry about the whole world being destroyed. Why would they? I mean, if the US was hit, it would be like 9/11 only bigger, and I'm sure people would be talking about glass parking lots, but why would all the missiles be launched towards everywhere? Who wants to destroy the world and why wouldn't they have done it already? Same goes for a…

Please read.

Nuclear capabilities: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_triad

MAD: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

Revenge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail-deadly

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#108

Post by _y5hn »

perl4ever wrote: post #84
true_religion wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know thanks to 9/11 that if the US is attacked it will retaliate against it's historic regional enemies without bothering you wait for confirmation or proof. I bet if the US were nuked they would say it was Iran and North Korea working in sync and try to find confirmation in the ruins of a devastating counter strike.

Perhaps, so in that case, why would you expect the world to be blown to pieces?

The world IS being blown to pieces: Libya, Syria, etc.

Of course, there are regional reasons for this, multiple reasons that sadly never seem able to coexist with other people or tackle global challenges.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#109

Post by dgudkov »

cmdshiftf4 wrote: post #41

What an absolute tragedy. Well done to Iran for coming forward, admitting it and expressing their regrets over it. It's a stark cry from the utter denial others have expressed when similar accidents have happened, and astronomically further than when George H. W. Bush proclaimed "I will never apologize for the United States — I don't care what the facts are... I'm not an apologize-for-America kind of guy." when the N…

They knew they shot down the plane just a few minutes after they did it. Yet, they lied about it 3 days straight. Admitting it after 3 days is surely more honest than Russia still not admitting they shot down MH17 5 years ago, but I wouldn't say it's "well done".

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#110

Post by wil93 »

kumarvvr wrote: post #95
aaomidi wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No this isn't well done. It took them three days to say this. How did it take them three days to realize they shot a missile? Especially since they had a denial campaign going on for three goddamn days. This was just external pressure on Iran forcing them to do this. If this flight wasn't an international one it would've been swept under the rug.

Three days is insanely fast for a nation Think of how many level of people are there. There are the guys that shot the missile. The ones that command those guys, the ones that command those and commanders above those. In the chaos of the tragedy, no body wants to open their mouth, in case they are executed for saying something that is against the direction which the nations top leaders want to take. Then come the top…

> Three days is perfectly OK.

Three days of silence? Yes. Three days of active denial? Hell no.

The Head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization had this to say: «The version that the plane was shot down by a rocket cannot be true under any circumstances … it is impossible from the scientific point of view.»

If they really wanted to tell the truth after some days then why wouldn't he just shut up in the meantime?

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