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Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

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Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#51

Post by mthoms »

There's a pretty good short documentary about the USS Vincennes accidental shooting down of an Iranian commercial flight in 1988. Notably, it discusses the psychological phenomenon of "scenario fulfillment" that allegedly contributed to the disaster.

I'll leave it to more informed commenters here to discuss whether or not such a thing actually exists. But regardless, it's an interesting watch.

https://youtu.be/lRJnumxuHwY

And before someone pounces, I'm not bringing this incident up due to any ideological "anti-US" agenda or some such silliness. I just think the doc is interesting, relevant, and worthy of discussion.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#52

Post by Aeolun »

aaomidi wrote: post #47
cmdshiftf4 wrote: post #41

What an absolute tragedy. Well done to Iran for coming forward, admitting it and expressing their regrets over it. It's a stark cry from the utter denial others have expressed when similar accidents have happened, and astronomically further than when George H. W. Bush proclaimed "I will never apologize for the United States — I don't care what the facts are... I'm not an apologize-for-America kind of guy." when the N…

No this isn't well done. It took them three days to say this. How did it take them three days to realize they shot a missile? Especially since they had a denial campaign going on for three goddamn days. This was just external pressure on Iran forcing them to do this. If this flight wasn't an international one it would've been swept under the rug.

Even if it was external pressure, we’re still waiting for Russia to say the same. Iran actually did.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#53

Post by mthoms »

aaomidi wrote: post #50
mthoms wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They denied it at first, yes. But they were also surprisingly open to allowing foreign investigators on site. They even agreed to give the black boxes over to the Ukrainians. If they were trying to hide something I feel like they would have handled it much differently. Like, for instance how the Russian-backed forces acted when they did the same thing in 2014. Deny, deflect, deny, repeat. The truth would have come ou…

If they didn't they would've lost any support they had left in the world. They would be left alone against the US. They had to. Iran did the right thing after realizing the thing they wanted to do was too costly.

Oh I agree. I'm just saying there never seemed to be an organized or vigorous campaign of denial. The government was denying it while at the same time, the aviation authority seemed to be signalling that it welcomed international assistance.

>They would be left alone against the US. They had to.

That didn't deter the Russians in Ukraine. They still tried to cover it up. Badly.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#54

Post by perl4ever »

perl4ever wrote: post #42
ethbro wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why would all the missiles be launched towards everywhere? Because that's the way nuclear deterrent theory works. If you collapse the game theory calculus down, it turns into "Any technology or action that makes it less likely an adversary will respond with an unacceptable counterstrike on me makes it more likely that I will consider a first strike a viable option." Examples of technologies or activities with this…

"Because that's the way nuclear deterrent theory works." The theory is that the US has committed to blowing up...Japan, say...if North Korea should succeed in missiling San Francisco?

...consider that Nevada has been nuked (I just looked it up) a hundred times - and that's just above ground testing.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#55

Post by aaomidi »

mthoms wrote: post #53
aaomidi wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they didn't they would've lost any support they had left in the world. They would be left alone against the US. They had to. Iran did the right thing after realizing the thing they wanted to do was too costly.

Oh I agree. I'm just saying there never seemed to be an organized or vigorous campaign of denial. The government was denying it while at the same time, the aviation authority seemed to be signalling that it welcomed international assistance. >They would be left alone against the US. They had to. That didn't deter the Russians in Ukraine. They still tried to cover it up. Badly.

Europe depends on Russian gas or they freeze so not really an equal comparison.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#56

Post by Aeolun »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #24

Horribly tragic. But let those who have never shot down a civilian airliner in error be the first to throw stones...

Not like throwing stones will have any effect at this point. Iran is already pretty well covered in them.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#57

Post by aaomidi »

Aeolun wrote: post #52
aaomidi wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No this isn't well done. It took them three days to say this. How did it take them three days to realize they shot a missile? Especially since they had a denial campaign going on for three goddamn days. This was just external pressure on Iran forcing them to do this. If this flight wasn't an international one it would've been swept under the rug.

Even if it was external pressure, we’re still waiting for Russia to say the same. Iran actually did.

Meanwhile Iran also killed 1500 people a few weeks ago and there's been no news about that.

Iran was pushed to do this by the international community. Russia doesn't give a shit. Europe depends on Russia, so the consequences for Russia weren't a big deal.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#58

Post by c0nducktr »

eloff wrote: post #21
avocado4 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was glaringly obvious from the first report considering the ongoing missile strike.

Yes, it was. Planes are very reliable. What's the odds there's a crash in Iran hours after they attach the US and are on high alert for a counter attack? It's a safe bet.

I'd assume the odds of a country shooting down an aircraft that took off from their own airport ought to be pretty low as well.

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#59

Post by ethbro »

arthurcolle wrote: post #15
perl4ever wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One oops and maybe something gets nuked, but I don't think it makes any sense to worry about the whole world being destroyed. Why would they? I mean, if the US was hit, it would be like 9/11 only bigger, and I'm sure people would be talking about glass parking lots, but why would all the missiles be launched towards everywhere? Who wants to destroy the world and why wouldn't they have done it already? Same goes for a…

I think you don't have an appreciation of the devastation that modern thermonuclear warheads are capable of, as well as the sophisticated delivery systems that the United States has concocted and refined over many, many years.

I think the B83 (1.2 megatons) is the highest yield weapon currently in the US arsenal.

Which, while terrible (9 megatons ~= pressure wave that levels most structures in a largish city), pales in comparison to something like the B41 (25 megatons) or the B53 (9 megatons).

Generally speaking, the US and Russia both realized (~70s) that building excessively large bombs was inflexible and a waste of resources.

The actual first-order effects are generally smaller than what you'd expect: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Re: Ukrainian plane was 'unintentionally' shot down, Iran state TV says

#60

Post by originldirgibl »

aaomidi wrote: post #47
cmdshiftf4 wrote: post #41

What an absolute tragedy. Well done to Iran for coming forward, admitting it and expressing their regrets over it. It's a stark cry from the utter denial others have expressed when similar accidents have happened, and astronomically further than when George H. W. Bush proclaimed "I will never apologize for the United States — I don't care what the facts are... I'm not an apologize-for-America kind of guy." when the N…

No this isn't well done. It took them three days to say this. How did it take them three days to realize they shot a missile? Especially since they had a denial campaign going on for three goddamn days. This was just external pressure on Iran forcing them to do this. If this flight wasn't an international one it would've been swept under the rug.

It didn't. I assume it took them three days to decide whether or not they could establish plausible deniability.

Then the cell phone video of the second missile hitting the plane came out. It's easy to own up to mistakes when your hand is forced.

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