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Things that I think will be important in the next decade

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101–110 of 368 posts

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#101

What a bunch of crock! It seems like it’d always remain too much to ask for Mark to understand things and look at the big picture for the good of everyone. IMO, this post yet again makes a good case for breaking up the company. Most of this post is about how Facebook is looking for new ways to make money, and just a few sentences about large problems like diseases or poverty. He carelessly uses words like “private” a…

Many of the interpretations you have, and the intents and beliefs you claim Zuckerberg holds, are not evident in the article.

You're coming across as someone with an intense confirmation bias.

It's important that Facebook and other tech giants not be allowed to harm society in the coming decade. But an intense and emotional overreaction only makes that position seem less credible to the uninformed.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#102
post #10

Rule of Thumb : General Predictions from experts/specialists are almost useless. For decent predictions of the ways of a world, find multi-disciplinary generalists. They would likely be right, at least directionally.

Do you have any pointers for some recent predictions you thought made sense?

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#103
> By the end of this decade, I expect more institutions will be run by millennials and more policies will be set to address these problems with longer term outlooks.

He "expects" this? This is trivially true in that it is an unavoidable result of the human lifecycle. 40 years from now, the boomers won't be in congress or in jobs -- they'll be dead. The only possible conclusion is that the millennials will replace them. I don't see why he felt the need to state that he "expects" this. Everyone who understands that humans die expects this.

> reconstruct all kinds of smaller communities to give us that sense of intimacy again.

This is how people use Facebook already. Most of my friends who "use" Facebook are really just in private groups and chat. Twitter is the go-to global platform -- it's one big bubble. Facebook is distinguishing itself as more of a private platform of isolated bubbles. This has already been happening for the past 10 years.

> Decentralizing Opportunity... If we can make it so anyone can sell products through a storefront on Instagram, message and support their customers through Messenger, or send money home to another country instantly and at low cost through WhatsApp -- that will go a long way towards creating more opportunity around the world

Decentralizing Opportunity? Maybe. Centralizing monetary transaction traffic to Facebook so they reap the equivalent of a VAT on every sale? Definitely.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#105
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. VR is probably destined to remain a niche interface. There just aren't enough potential applications which would benefit from VR, or which would be improved with VR. It won't be adopted en masse because there will never be that great a demand for it. Although if the price went down, what demand there was would probably be met. I definitely don't want to pay $400 or more for something that should just be a periphe…

Anyone who's seen clips of an NFL or NBA game on a VR headset knows that this is the future. Unfortunately we are not there yet and development seems to have really cooled down recently. In fact we might have another VR winter on hand until someone makes a new breakthrough and re-awakens all the hype and interest. But I don't think it's too far-fetched to say that sometime within my lifetime VR could easily become th…

Even beyond entertainment, when working hours in an office, I'd rather look at a beach or fantasy landscape with a nice ambient sound than a dull wall with rain under a greyish light outside. I'd likely spend most of my time in VR just because it's nicer.

Life-like VR fundamentally holds the promise of being one more great social equalizer if you can essentially simulate material wealth (objects, locations) like a video game, even just the visual part of it. E.g. IKEA is all over such research, with good reason.

Most people also don't realize that in terms of communication, any non-physical interaction (so excluding sex and hugs) would be just as good in VR as in reality, thereby making face-to-face meetings the norm anew (like before any form of distant communication existed, save for mail). That's bound to be a healthy change, a welcome improvement from text, audio and even video.

It's just a little bit too early indeed, and probably headed for a (shorter) winter I agree. Come 2030ish we should have much more decent options to move forward (from current specs you'd estimate a 10x at least to reach 'acceptable' capabilities, and more like 100x if you seek visually life-like sim, i.e. ~250px per arc minute at 100Hz or more over at least 180° field of view).

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#106
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any future avatar based communication system (VR/AR) needs to be open source and auditable if it’s going to mediate a large portion of human affairs and interaction. It also needs to be actually decentralized, the way the web and Internet are. We are working on it at Mozilla: hubs.mozilla.com More info here: https://github.com/mozilla/hubs-cloud/wiki/The-Web-Emergent-...

> It also needs to be actually decentralized, the way the web and Internet are. The more you look at the web/Internet, you’ll notice it’s not as decentralized as most people believe

agree, but it's the best example we currently have of a global scale decentralized digital network. (crypto assets aside, which aren't really a good analog to what i'm talking about here) would be happy to make a better one tho!

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#107

What a bunch of crock! It seems like it’d always remain too much to ask for Mark to understand things and look at the big picture for the good of everyone. IMO, this post yet again makes a good case for breaking up the company. Most of this post is about how Facebook is looking for new ways to make money, and just a few sentences about large problems like diseases or poverty. He carelessly uses words like “private” a…

Or just stop using Facebook and its products.

That's about as practical for me as giving up my local water utility as an inner-city dweller. I mean I definitely could. I can get large bottles of potable water delivered quite cheaply, and I guess I could setup a system so that that's what came out of the taps.

But what I really want is for the government to intervene so I don't need to give up my local water utility, by guaranteeing minimum levels of service, and providing solid regulation.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're invaluable for democracy. Right now, there are a number of anti government, pro democracy protests taking place in my country. All of them are being organized and spread via Instagram and WhatsApp

Why could those not be on Signal and be actually safe due to real end-to-end encryption and no spying from Facebook? https://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2018/09/27/facebook-...

Presumably because Signal doesn't have the install base to make that realistic.

I do hope that the people taking real risks are doing their most sensitive communication on something better like Signal.

But for mass reach using another tool seems necessary as of now.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just stop using Facebook and its products.

That's about as practical for me as giving up my local water utility as an inner-city dweller. I mean I definitely could. I can get large bottles of potable water delivered quite cheaply, and I guess I could setup a system so that that's what came out of the taps. But what I really want is for the government to intervene so I don't need to give up my local water utility, by guaranteeing minimum levels of service, and…

I don't see which Facebook product you can't live without.

Facebook? Who needs it!

Whatsapp? Signal!

Instagram? I don't know... Read something?

How are their services like water?!

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#110
This strikes me as mainly a lot of malarkey from a person who will happily earn more billions in coming years trough the monetized distraction of a another final generation.

But I’m dumbfounded by the private network reference. Zuck sees people trying to circumvent oppressive regimes as some sort of emerging market opportunity? Or does he think you and I would pay to use “FB Private” if they promised to turn off everything about normal Facebook’s current business model?

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