Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Next Six Months

daringfireball.net

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

141–150 of 228 posts

Re: The Next Six Months

#141

Post by dstein »

lsc wrote: post #106
kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

>While Intel and MS will make money hand over first for years to come, it does appear to be the end of the consumer market for these two companies. Their focus will be business class computers, workstations, and servers. the server market, for all of my career, really, has been following the consumer market. The stuff you see in a server is basically upmarket desktop kit; the primary difference being the addition of…

There will be no desktop market. That's the disruption.

Re: The Next Six Months

#142

Post by arohner »

sofuture wrote: post #119
kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

I use my iPad nearly every day. It's a better experience than my laptop (which I do use literally every day) in several areas:

* reading in bed

* reading long PDFs. This is my primary "work purpose". I read a lot of machine learning books and journal articles in PDF form.

* quick checking of email, when you don't want to sit down for a while

* looking up recipes while cooking

* social media sharing: when friends are over, showing them a new video on youtube, etc

Re: The Next Six Months

#143

Post by SoftwareMaven »

sofuture wrote: post #119
kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

First, that is all the vast majority of people do on their desktop computers, yet devices like the iPad are far more convenient and prices about equivalently[1].

Second, that is invariably how a disruptive product is defined. 'I have yet to see a use for 2.5" hard drives beyond certain toy value because the storage space is so limited.'

[1] Of course the iPad is less powerful for those dollars, but we are talking the vast majority of people who have never gotten their CPU beyond 10% utilization except when playing a movie with Flash.

Re: The Next Six Months

#144

Post by [deleted] »

philwelch wrote: post #126
whatusername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from Xerox, what large company has originated a UI paradigm or OS? Apple bought the multi-touch stuff, MS licenses Kinect, etc, etc. Nintondo maybe with the Wii?

Apple bought the multi-touch stuff I didn't know that they bought or licensed the entire UI paradigm from someone else. Or do you just mean the low level parts? Because there's more to a UI paradigm than the input device. So, if it's just the screen tech that Apple bought and not the interaction software, I would count multi-touch as an Apple-originated UI paradigm, just as you credit the desktop GUI to Xerox, not St…

[deleted]

Re: The Next Six Months

#145

Post by dschobel »

"The next six months are going to set the foundation for the future of personal computing."

Gruber needs to make the leap and become a political talking-head on cable news already.

Unleashing lines like that without a hint of sarcasm or irony? You can't teach that, folks, that's god given.

Re: The Next Six Months

#146

Post by jcurbo »

naner wrote: post #92
YuriNiyazov wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am curious what kind of tech stuff you do spend money on. Not into apple, and yet not a gamer, which is one of the few holdouts

I used to be an early-adopter and gadget geek. I've owned a few crappy mp3 players (never an iPod for some reason) and even a Nokia 770 (also crappy). I think that was the last of my tech gadget purchases. These days I just own a nice laptop and a clamshell cell phone. I don't even have a camera anymore.

I loved my 770. Still have it in a box somewhere. It had a great browser for its time and made a good ebook reader. Vastly foreshadowed my use of an iPhone today. That's all I used it for though and at some point I shelved it.

Re: The Next Six Months

#147

Post by seabee »

philwelch wrote: post #126
whatusername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from Xerox, what large company has originated a UI paradigm or OS? Apple bought the multi-touch stuff, MS licenses Kinect, etc, etc. Nintondo maybe with the Wii?

Apple bought the multi-touch stuff I didn't know that they bought or licensed the entire UI paradigm from someone else. Or do you just mean the low level parts? Because there's more to a UI paradigm than the input device. So, if it's just the screen tech that Apple bought and not the interaction software, I would count multi-touch as an Apple-originated UI paradigm, just as you credit the desktop GUI to Xerox, not St…

Well count yourself wrong: http://www.amazon.com/Fingerworks-IGESTURENUMPAD-iGesture-Pa...

That thing even let you switch between apps with gestures.

The iPod scroll wheel isn't an Apple paradigm either; jog dials for menu selection existed years before the iPod. I remember seeing it on the minidisc recorder in our school's music department.

Re: The Next Six Months

#148

Post by bergie »

kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

Intel is pretty heavily involved in MeeGo, an open source operating system targeting all sorts of post-PC environments.

Re: The Next Six Months

#149

Post by lsc »

dstein wrote: post #141
lsc wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>While Intel and MS will make money hand over first for years to come, it does appear to be the end of the consumer market for these two companies. Their focus will be business class computers, workstations, and servers. the server market, for all of my career, really, has been following the consumer market. The stuff you see in a server is basically upmarket desktop kit; the primary difference being the addition of…

There will be no desktop market. That's the disruption.

Personally, I find that... unlikely. Of course, that's a market I know nothing about, so I could very well be wrong. It doesn't really change my argument, though. s/desktop/consumer hardware/g and you get the same meaning. It's the mass market that makes things cheap, and if you can cram enough power in to a tablet CPU that it can replace the desktop, you can bet that us server folks will start using those CPUs (maybe modified with ecc support in the ram/cache) for our own applications

The real difference for us server folk is that tablet CPUs are always going to be behind the curve in terms of raw power. Likely, that will result in server boards accelerating further in to the 'massively multicore' direction they are going now. Which is okay with me; 1024 chickens, for what I do, actually work better than four strong oxen.

Re: The Next Six Months

#150

Post by philwelch »

seabee wrote: post #147
philwelch wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple bought the multi-touch stuff I didn't know that they bought or licensed the entire UI paradigm from someone else. Or do you just mean the low level parts? Because there's more to a UI paradigm than the input device. So, if it's just the screen tech that Apple bought and not the interaction software, I would count multi-touch as an Apple-originated UI paradigm, just as you credit the desktop GUI to Xerox, not St…

Well count yourself wrong: http://www.amazon.com/Fingerworks-IGESTURENUMPAD-iGesture-Pa... That thing even let you switch between apps with gestures. The iPod scroll wheel isn't an Apple paradigm either; jog dials for menu selection existed years before the iPod. I remember seeing it on the minidisc recorder in our school's music department.

That's not even a touchscreen. It's a trackpad with multitouch gestures designed for use with a desktop-based GUI on a PC. How is that equivalent to the iOS UI paradigm? That's like saying a mouse is equivalent to a Xerox Alto.
Post reply on HN