The Next Six Months • Hacker News Board

Re: The Next Six Months

#131

Post by zachallaun » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:24 AM UTC

sofuture wrote: post #119

kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

You're likely right in that tablets aren't about to kill PCs, but suggesting that tablets remain a simple "trendy gadget" seems a bit silly, especially considering Apple's Q1 reports [1].

Perhaps the iPad isn't to your taste, but it was to 7 million others. (And some 16 million overall.) One could argue that Apple does, in fact, have the largest consumer base of early adopters and trend followers of any company, but when you fan base grows larger than many other markets, you kind of have to call it main-stream.

I'm pretty sure that the iPad isn't the second coming of Christ. I'm comfortable saying that. But it's something other than a trend at this point.

[1] http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/18/apple-q1-2011/

Re: The Next Six Months

#132

Post by cletus » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:25 AM UTC

I mostly agree with Gruber but disagree on a couple of major points:

1. Releasing the iPad in September makes no sense simply because it was such a massive hit in the holiday season. Generally speaking, you want to spread out your demand as much as possible. It took 2 months to get the previous iPad from the US to the first round of international markets and another 3-4 months to do the full round. You can only produce so many. Actually not being able to buy one because demand is so high is not Apple's style;

2. I don't see Apple releasing a new version 6 months after the previous, particularly when, in all likelihood, the iPad 2 won't have been in some markets for more than a month or two.

As far as conflicting reports on parts and specs, that's nothing new. Just like there were reports of a CDMA iPhone YEARS before there was one. There are two reasons for this:

1. Apple produces far more prototypes than they release (eg the CDMA iPhone was tested for about a year before release); and

2. People just make stuff up for page views.

I also fully agree with Gruber on a rear-facing camera making very little sense on a device that large.

Re: The Next Six Months

#133

Post by kisielk » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:28 AM UTC

tomkarlo wrote: post #51

Todd wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't count them out. They've ported NT to ARM. The Windows Phone 7 shell, which runs on CE currently, could easily run as a front end to NT/Win8 on smaller devices. The touch device model and API is fully developed in WP7 and Win7. They have all the pieces in place to release a very compelling product--both from the end-user perspective, in the WP7/Metro shell, and the developer perspective, with excellent tool…

If they can't get enough devices out in the market to make it a compelling target platform for app makers, it won't matter that they have all the pieces. That's increasingly looking like the outcome. Why would anyone develop an app for W7 before iPhone or Android, assuming they don't have incumbent knowledge of the W7 environment (and even then...)?

I wouldn't underestimate the huge number of .Net / Windows developers that exist for Microsoft's ecosystem. If they manage to line their technologies up just right and make a big push for the mobile space, there's a huge developer mindshare that's entrenched in the Visual Studio / .Net world. A lot of these people have never used a Mac or other OS, and never programmed for another platform. Many of them don't have the interest to switch over to Java or ObjC and would prefer to work in the MS ecosystem. These are the people who would be developing the apps.

Re: The Next Six Months

#134

Post by gregpilling » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:28 AM UTC

sofuture wrote: post #119

kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

I have noticed that a surprising number of personal acquaintances that have no computer skills, have iPads. The iPad lets them surf the net, read books, email and run some games. They don't have to think about how to use it, it has great battery life, it does the basics that they want and it is fun. One good friend of mine (former business partner) who is almost -intentionally- computer illiterate goes everywhere with his iPad. He loves it. His use is email, basic web surfing and taking notes about what he wants his employees to do. He runs a notepad for each one and keeps track of tasks he has assigned and how they accomplished it. There are way better project management tools out there, but the point is that he, a techno-peasant, is making his iPad do it.

I think a large percentage of the iPad buyers were not techsavvy and the non-threatening aspect of the device is the appeal.

Re: The Next Six Months

#135

Post by larrywright » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:29 AM UTC

sofuture wrote: post #119

kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

This is all anecdotal, but I know a number of people who bought their parents iPads for Christmas. In all those cases, their parents haven't touched their home computer since they got the iPad. The iPad, along with its competitors, are all the computer a good segment of the population needs.

Re: The Next Six Months

#136

Post by usaar333 » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:32 AM UTC

brownleej wrote: post #125

idonthack wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you're the unusual one. apple market share is only 10% or so.

His comment didn't say they have Macs, he said they have Apple products. The dominance of the iPod makes it more probable that everyone he knows has at least one Apple product. Also, you assume that market share is evenly distributed in all demographics. I think the preceding discussion was about Apple's market share among tech enthusiasts, which I have never seen solid numbers on, but which seems, anecdotally, to be…

What does "own iPod" have to do with "is gamer"?

Re: The Next Six Months

#137

Post by toddmorey » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:32 AM UTC

sofuture wrote: post #119

kenjackson wrote: post #19

Microsoft AND Intel being effectively missing from the tablet race is staggering. And there are a few reasons why its staggering: 1) Both have known it was coming, maybe longer than anyone else. But got the core requirements all wrong. 2) No one really seems to care. 3) Related to (2), there is no belief that they have anything up their sleeve. 4) Their existing ecosystem, probably a billion units strong, doesn't see…

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

But think of what the tablet means: Small, super-light, instant-on hardware with long battery life; paired with a lean OS and small, fast, and focused apps. You can see some of the tablet/phone learnings leaking into other form factors, like the new Macbook Air. Tablets and phones are just the two current form factors for this new era of always-on, always-at-your-side computing. That's the shift that MS and Intel seem to be struggling with.

Re: The Next Six Months

#138

Post by halostatue » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:37 AM UTC

far33d wrote: post #128

sofuture wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

>I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. 7.3m iPads sold so far hardly seems like just early adopters.

7.3m is only the holiday quarter (FQ1'11 for Apple). The YTD was about 16m. I'd say that first year sales will probably bust 20m.

Re: The Next Six Months

#139

Post by toddmorey » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:40 AM UTC

larrywright wrote: post #135

sofuture wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn . Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary t…

This is all anecdotal, but I know a number of people who bought their parents iPads for Christmas. In all those cases, their parents haven't touched their home computer since they got the iPad. The iPad, along with its competitors, are all the computer a good segment of the population needs.

I love Steve Jobs' analogy here. He essentially said that desktop computers will stay around, but they'll be the trucks of a car-dominated industry. My parents (and most consumers) never do heavy work on their computers. What they've always needed--and what these new tablets are finally delivering--is a fast, dependable car that runs a long time between refueling.

Re: The Next Six Months

#140

Post by stcredzero » Thu, Feb 10, 2011, 3:44 AM UTC

yakto wrote: post #127

stcredzero wrote: post #122

Re: Rear Facing Camera. This would be most useful on a device with a daylight readable transflective screen. Then you could use it outdoors with augmented reality apps.

While riding your Segway? Just don't see it happening (average folks holding a tablet-size device in front of their face, running AR apps).

Sure, when stationary for a moment, looking up information. You see average folks looking dead tree/ink information device in public all the time. They're called tourists. They're called museum-goers. They're called audience. Those things they're holding are called guidebooks and programs.

I think this would make for an awesome museum AR experience.