For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity • Hacker News Board

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#201

Post by tejtm » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:35 PM UTC

Vesuvium wrote: post #86

scarmig wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Milking your customers is not good for business, especially if you drive them into insolvency. It clearly is good for business, even if it's bad for customers and society at large. Pretending it's bad for business just encourages complacency because it suggests that the natural discipline of the market will drive the milkers out of business and encourage good business practices. But that doesn't happen, and if we w…

These companies are losing customers. That is never good for business. Eventually, someone will take the matter into his own hand and start making 80s-like tractors, so these companies will lose even more customers. They could do the same, but at this point they lost the trust of their customers, so it will be very hard to gain them back.

Maybe they are loosing a particular kind of customer they may want to loose anyway. Neither the number of acres to be farmed nor the number of mouths to feed decrease when a small farm goes under. The tractor has no long term concern of sitting idle and it may be giant non-corporeal people prefer doing business with their own kind.

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#202

Post by AnimalMuppet » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:35 PM UTC

CharlesColeman wrote: post #160

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The way the system actually works is that the wants/needs of the capital-holders take priority over the wants/needs of other stakeholders (e.g. customers and workers). The capital-holders did not (in most cases) get a "you are now free to hose your customers" card. The cases where they are free to do so are cases where there is a lack of competition. So "modern capitalism is not a system that will magically fulfill…

> So "modern capitalism is not a system that will magically fulfill customer needs in the absence of competition". But modern capitalism, at least in the American context, is a system being drained of competition. Competitors conspire to destroy it by merging and acquiring each other, and the deregulatory economic zeitgeist that's been in force for 40 years means the government has done little to foster it. Markets t…

> But modern capitalism, at least in the American context, is a system being drained of competition.

I agree, and I agree that it's a problem. But it's the "being drained of competition" that's the problem, not capitalism itself. (Well, capitalism itself is something that would prefer to drain itself of competition - even Adam Smith knew that - but for capitalism to work properly, there has to be competition.)

There seem to be two kinds of "draining of competition". First, there's the "just too good" kind. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and (the subject at hand) John Deere may all be of this kind (though Microsoft did plenty of dirty tricks to get there). Economics of scale and network effects create positive feedback loops where one competitor can win it all. I don't really know what to do about that.

The second kind is government-caused (or at least -allowed) monopoly. There's only one electric company here, because the government thought it made sense for there to be. Some other monopolies are less directly government caused, but heavy regulations can make it so that only the largest firms have the resources to comply, and all the smaller firms die.

Government-allowed is when the government approves a merger of firms that are big enough that the merger significantly decreases (or eliminates) competition.

With the government we've had for the last 40 years, I don't know what to do about this kind, either.

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#203

Post by nas » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:36 PM UTC

As someone who grew up on a farm and spent 7 years running one (few thousand acres so fairly good size), I can provide some background on why this is happening.

The large farms are driving new equipment sales. They are the ones buying the brand new John Deere $700k combine harvesters will all the bells and whistles. The problem is, those bells and whistles add a lot of extra complexity to the machine, making it harder and more expensive to fix. Deere doesn't make it easier since they don't provide details needed for 3rd party repair people (e.g. schematics, software tools for managing embedded controllers, etc). The people buying new equipment don't care about that. Their equipment is covered by warranty and Deere fixes it for them (or replaces it). They sell the machine after it is a year or two. So, they never deal with the crap repair-ability of new equipment. The 2nd stage used market cares a little but not so much either. They can still get Deere to fix it for them, maybe not under warranty.

By the time the equipment gets to the 3rd tier used market, it is already heavily deprecated. The loss in value due to poor repair-ability is not getting fed back up the chain in any significant way which would make the primary buyers change their decision making. They want the bells and whistles and they will pay a little extra in deprecation to get them. The problem for society is that you have a $700k machine that is basically a paperweight after a decade or two. You might was well drive it in the junk pile because no one is going to be able to make it run. At least, not without tearing out heaps of electronics that are no longer working. New machines are utterly dependent on onboard electronic control systems (e.g. ECMs). They won't run without them.

New machines are disposable and that is what the buyers are deciding to choose. You can't put all the blame on companies like Deere. The contrast to old farm equipment is dramatic though. We have an old Ferguson tractor, might be from the 1950s. Everything on that tractor can be fixed. If we wanted, we could make it run like it just came out of the factory. For jobs on the farm that don't need a big tractor, it does them just fine. Probably in 100 years you will still be able to keep it running if you want.

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#204

Post by kbrackbill » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:38 PM UTC

asdff wrote: post #49

ziftface wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but think that this is intentional. I'm pretty sure it's possible to create a more modular design without sacrificing anything. Especially given John Deere's record, it doesn't seem far fetched that they would actively seek out ways to make it more difficult to repair their tractors.

It's definitely intentional. You pop the hood of a new car and you see a plastic cover, not the engine. The plastic cover doesn't do anything for the car, it adds cost to the car, and mechanics have to remove and reinstall it if they do any work at all. However, it does have a function: to obscure you from the workings of your car, and push you to take the car to a dealership or someone buying genuine parts at least.

If it truly does nothing, why would the mechanic replace it instead of just leaving it off? Genuine question, I know nothing about this. Do the manufacturers at least have some explanation for why it's there other than to make access more difficult?

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#205

Post by WaylonKenning » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:38 PM UTC

milofeynman wrote: post #73

brenden2 wrote: post #16

The technology itself is not the issue, the problem is that companies are at war with their customers. These companies will go to any length to extract as much revenue as possible. Milking your customers is not good for business, especially if you drive them into insolvency. I hope in the future there are more companies that try to align incentives with their customers, such that their business practices help custome…

To add some sources to this, the tractor companies have been milking farmers by forcing them to require subscriptions or use overpriced repair techs in order to get firmware updates/repairs. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/kzp7ny/tractor-hacking-ri... https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2017/04/09/52...

This could be a business opportunity for another tractor manufacturer. You're not forced to buy a John Deere.

Boutique tractors, hand repairable, simple parts. If people are hoarding onto 40 year old tractors, then that's a market signal that people want those type of tractors.

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#206

Post by TimTheTinker » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:39 PM UTC

ultrarunner wrote: post #168

minikites wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Which products are getting more repairable with time? Nobody is bringing back easily repairable washing machines or easily repairable automobiles.

Being suddenly in the market for a new washing machine myself, I might argue that a large portion of the value of a washing machine is in its aesthetics. Same (probably more so) for cars. I'd probably need to put more thought into that, but I am fairly certain that aesthetics don't count for much in a tractor on a farm. It's possible that classic-styled tractors might even be mark in their favor. Either way, I suspec…

It does make a big difference to have an air conditioner. And GPS guidance.

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#207

Post by jay_kyburz » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:39 PM UTC

ultrarunner wrote: post #168

minikites wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Which products are getting more repairable with time? Nobody is bringing back easily repairable washing machines or easily repairable automobiles.

Being suddenly in the market for a new washing machine myself, I might argue that a large portion of the value of a washing machine is in its aesthetics. Same (probably more so) for cars. I'd probably need to put more thought into that, but I am fairly certain that aesthetics don't count for much in a tractor on a farm. It's possible that classic-styled tractors might even be mark in their favor. Either way, I suspec…

If I could buy a washing machine with a 10 year warranty I would not care at all what it looked like.

My washing machine is leaking at the moment. I have to decide whether or not its worth my time pulling it outside and apart to see if it can be fixed, or if I should just go buy a new one for $750

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#208

Post by apt-get » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:40 PM UTC

jessant wrote: post #199

ahoy wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an enormous body of law in the US that incentivizes a top-down corporate business structure and disincentives a co-op business structure.

I think human nature incentivizes top-down corporate business structures and disincentivizes co-op businesss structures.

Which is why 75% of France's farmers belong to an agricultural cooperative?

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#209

Post by chottocharaii » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:41 PM UTC

jessant wrote: post #199

ahoy wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an enormous body of law in the US that incentivizes a top-down corporate business structure and disincentives a co-op business structure.

I think human nature incentivizes top-down corporate business structures and disincentivizes co-op businesss structures.

Perhaps, but the body of law point means we’ll never find out if you’re right or not.

Re: For tech-weary Midwest farmers, 40-year-old tractors now a hot commodity

#210

Post by ttcbj » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 9:41 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #16

The technology itself is not the issue, the problem is that companies are at war with their customers. These companies will go to any length to extract as much revenue as possible. Milking your customers is not good for business, especially if you drive them into insolvency. I hope in the future there are more companies that try to align incentives with their customers, such that their business practices help custome…

I'm not convinced this is accurate.

When an industry is offered a technology-based productivity improvement by a vendor, the increased profit associated with that improvement can go to three places:

1. The technology vendor itself 2. The business purchasing the technology 3. The customer

When the business purchasing the technology is a commodity business (its product is undifferentiated from a large number of competitive producers, e.g. corn, soybeans), the value from the technology will generally either stay with the technology vendor or flow down to the consumer in the form of lower prices.

This is why technology investment in a commodity business is often about a need to keep up with your competitors and not about actually increasing your profit. To paraphrase Charlie Munger, the productivity improvement doesn't 'stick to your ribs' if you are the farmer.

I think any business sophisticated enough to build highly automated farm tractors is also going to be sophisticated enough to realize that it doesn't make sense for the farmers to own the value associated with those productivity improvements. That is the plight of a commodity producer in the supply chain, I don't think it's a moral failing of the technology vendor.