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Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

bloomberg.com

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Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#81

Post by pjc50 »

jxramos wrote: post #76

I'm always leery when media begins to tout a new word. Maybe economic contraction has some history to it and a precise definition, but maybe its being coopted or is void and ready to fill with whatever new line of rhetoric we will soon be assaulted with. Would be great to have a headlines database to see trending terms and when something is really unprecedented in headlines.

Yes, the precise definition is that the GDP growth figures have gone negative. Two quarters of negative growth is the usual definition of a "recession".

This happens every decade or thereabouts, and there is a large body of work in economics about the "business cycle", why it happens and what if anything can be done about it.

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#82

Post by endorphone »

jxramos wrote: post #76

I'm always leery when media begins to tout a new word. Maybe economic contraction has some history to it and a precise definition, but maybe its being coopted or is void and ready to fill with whatever new line of rhetoric we will soon be assaulted with. Would be great to have a headlines database to see trending terms and when something is really unprecedented in headlines.

"Economic contraction" is an economic word with many, many decades of broad use behind it. Your own personal ignorance to it doesn't turn it into some media scheme that you have outed.

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#83

Post by georgeplusplus »

leereeves wrote: post #4
georgeplusplus wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you insinuating that Bloomberg is being nefarious by doing so? As long as the data backs it up I don’t see a problem with it being reported on.

A selective reading of the data can be made to support almost any conclusion, and I think Bloomberg has a rather obvious bias. As TFA says: "A faltering economic outlook in coming months would likely cast a shadow over President Donald Trump’s re-election bid." And even if there wasn't an election going on, we should consider a source's track record when evaluating their latest predictions. Bloomberg Media is the boy…

That’s a fair point. I forgot Bloomberg had entered the race to be honest. That could cause a lot of Bias.

However I do think the economy isn’t well, if it was I doubt the fed would have restarted QE.

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#84

Post by merpnderp »

Symmetry wrote: post #49
rjtavares wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I assume all media outlets have ulterior motives behind each article (ranging from the simple "catering to their specific audience with facts supporting their view" to more nefarious "willfully manipulating the people with falsehoods").

Sure, but mostly I assume that the alterior motives are things like "Make the reader excited to read more here (and make us more money)" or "Don't make the reader feel confused (and possibly go away and stop making us money)." It's unusual that you have situations where a news purveyor has forces acting stronger than the idealism of its employees or the necessities of the markets.

You say this, but we see partisanship and ideology placed before profits all the time, almost every time. How many major newspapers are worth basically zero; how many broadcast news have seen their viewership fall into the toilet; how many internet newsies have lost their jobs - all because they do nothing but grind axes all day and do their best to covertly manipulate their audiences?

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#85

Post by pjc50 »

jdhn wrote: post #74
jeffmk wrote: post #67

1. West Virginia 2. Pennsylvania 3. Delaware 4. Montana 5. Oklahoma 6. Vermont 7. New Jersey 8. Kentucky 9. Connecticut

I'm not too surprised by the makeup of this list. West Virginia and Kentucky are resource extraction states that are primarily focused around coal, and Oklahoma is focused around oil & gas. New Jersey and Connecticut have high taxes, and are having a wave of retirees leave and take their spending dollars with them. Vermont has very low population growth and is also facing a demographic issue just like Jersey and Conn…

The demographic and internal-migratory questions remind me of the EU and the problems faced by e.g. Greece. I wonder if it will result in a campaign against internal migration. Is freedom of movement within the United States explicitly part of the Constitution?

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#86

Post by merpnderp »

whatshisface wrote: post #72
Dirlewanger wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A good start would be to ban wholesale both Bloomberg and Washington Post articles from HN. Nothing from those publications should be trusted.

Even in the most extreme possible case where the WaPo is an outlet for Jeff Bezos' personal opinions, is it really the case that Jeff Bezos couldn't have anything interesting to tell us? One billionaire-owned newspaper isn't that bad on its own, because the other newspapers can still report on the owner of the one. What's really scary is when the billionaire owners go golfing together, which would be a failure of the…

Hasn't this been the case for some time? The number of people who actually matter in the news industry is only a few thousand, and their social graph looks like they're all married to each other's cousins (which is only half a joke).

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#87

Post by merpnderp »

smileysteve wrote: post #58
Dirlewanger wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A good start would be to ban wholesale both Bloomberg and Washington Post articles from HN. Nothing from those publications should be trusted.

> and Washington Post Is Jeff Bezos running for Political office too? You just moved the line from running for Presidential party nomination, skipped over mayor of major city, and jumped right to billionaires. Add on; If all of a sudden you can't be wealthy and own (part of?) a media company, it really hurts the quality of journalism; you'd be left with small town or independent blogs; more susceptible to fake news -…

Why would we treat Bezos any differently? At his level of rare air, making/breaking regulations is just as important to profit as playing in the market. He has a whole lot more on the line politically than any politician.

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#88

Post by merpnderp »

ianai wrote: post #18
alamaslah wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this being downvoted? It is a interesting contribution and gives valuable insight into the article that has been posted.

HN tends to take a dim view of political discussions in my experience. There have been a number of indicators of a slowing economy for quite some time now. There was at least one run towards bonds in recent months. The Fed has been famously weighing its rate decisions sighting troubling economic outlooks. The yield curve inverted. GDP figures are trending downward. This is all just off the top of my head.

Most importantly of all, a stagnating economy is likely the only way anyone in the Democratic primary can beat Trump. And there's not an editor in the country who isn't carefully weighing this when picking what finance stories to run.

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#89

Post by jdhn »

pjc50 wrote: post #85
jdhn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not too surprised by the makeup of this list. West Virginia and Kentucky are resource extraction states that are primarily focused around coal, and Oklahoma is focused around oil & gas. New Jersey and Connecticut have high taxes, and are having a wave of retirees leave and take their spending dollars with them. Vermont has very low population growth and is also facing a demographic issue just like Jersey and Conn…

The demographic and internal-migratory questions remind me of the EU and the problems faced by e.g. Greece. I wonder if it will result in a campaign against internal migration. Is freedom of movement within the United States explicitly part of the Constitution?

I believe so. The campaign against internal migration is happening in the sense that people in western states that aren't California are pissed at Californians for moving to those states and driving up housing prices.

Re: Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

#90

Post by hx87 »

pjc50 wrote: post #85
jdhn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not too surprised by the makeup of this list. West Virginia and Kentucky are resource extraction states that are primarily focused around coal, and Oklahoma is focused around oil & gas. New Jersey and Connecticut have high taxes, and are having a wave of retirees leave and take their spending dollars with them. Vermont has very low population growth and is also facing a demographic issue just like Jersey and Conn…

The demographic and internal-migratory questions remind me of the EU and the problems faced by e.g. Greece. I wonder if it will result in a campaign against internal migration. Is freedom of movement within the United States explicitly part of the Constitution?

NIMBYism is pretty much a de facto campaign against internal migration. It's not much of an issue in the fastest growing states, but certain states with hot economies but stagnant or declining populations, like Massachusetts or California, are affected by it.
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