New Cambridge Analytica Leaks • Hacker News Board

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#11

Post by Mikeb85 » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:28 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #8

Probably the most useful takeaway from CA's approach is that it's useful to realize how malleable opinions are of large swaths of "independent" voters. Ad experts and entertainment companies have known this for decades, but I get the sense the average American citizen still thinks of themselves as a free and independent thinker and not a product of their environment. Problem is, even if they are a free and independen…

Anti-establishment sentiment has been brewing for awhile. Some candidates simply tapped into that (Bernie, Trump) whereas the losing candidates either pretended everything was fine (Clinton) or relied on older political ideas (Cruz). I don't think CA was responsible for forming opinions so much as knowing exactly how to exploit existing opinions. And anti-establishment opinions are still popular (Warren and Sanders are 2 of the 3 Democrat front-runners) despite media messaging.

Edit - examples of anti-establishment sentiment prior to Sanders and Trump are Occupy Wallstreet and the Tea Party. Recently I watched 'Saving Capitalism' with Robert Reich (Bill Clinton's former secretary of labour) and it chronicled the rise of anti-establishment sentiment quite well as well as the growth of inequality and how all this lead to the current political landscape. Based on Trump's messaging (his economic platform is basically the canonical right-wing solution to increase wages and employment), CA obviously tapped into all of this.

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#12

Post by shadowgovt » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #9

shadowgovt wrote: post #8

Probably the most useful takeaway from CA's approach is that it's useful to realize how malleable opinions are of large swaths of "independent" voters. Ad experts and entertainment companies have known this for decades, but I get the sense the average American citizen still thinks of themselves as a free and independent thinker and not a product of their environment. Problem is, even if they are a free and independen…

While I agree with "how malleable opinions are...", the actual answer is, "not very malleable". Every well-designed study of political advertising I've ever seen has shown that it's impact is very small, in some cases unmeasurably small. Thus, for example, the 2016 Clinton campaign raised a lot more $$ than the Trump campaign, whereas the Sanders primary campaign out-fundraised the Clinton one. Now, the impact on the…

Correct. A study I've heard described (apologies for missing a link directly to it right now) attempted to micro-target advertising to nudge numbers, and found the strategy that worked wasn't to tell "dyed-in-the-wool" supporters of a candidate to vote for the other candidate; it was to tell them their vote didn't matter and they should stay home. It appeared to have effect.

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#13

Post by growlist » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

fmakunbound wrote: post #10

After having seen The Great Hack https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9358204/ over the weekend, it's hard to imagine how the scope expanded again. They used the developing countries all over the world as practice for UK brexit and US's 2016 elections.

> UK brexit

Is there any rock solid evidence around this yet? As far as I'm aware it's still in the realm of conspiracy theory. Given how far she's spun hearsay, circumstantial evidence and speculation, I'm betting if Carole Cadwalladr etc. did have anything concrete we'd never hear the end of it.

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#14

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #9

shadowgovt wrote: post #8

Probably the most useful takeaway from CA's approach is that it's useful to realize how malleable opinions are of large swaths of "independent" voters. Ad experts and entertainment companies have known this for decades, but I get the sense the average American citizen still thinks of themselves as a free and independent thinker and not a product of their environment. Problem is, even if they are a free and independen…

While I agree with "how malleable opinions are...", the actual answer is, "not very malleable". Every well-designed study of political advertising I've ever seen has shown that it's impact is very small, in some cases unmeasurably small. Thus, for example, the 2016 Clinton campaign raised a lot more $$ than the Trump campaign, whereas the Sanders primary campaign out-fundraised the Clinton one. Now, the impact on the…

[deleted]

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#15

Post by akhilcacharya » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #8

Probably the most useful takeaway from CA's approach is that it's useful to realize how malleable opinions are of large swaths of "independent" voters. Ad experts and entertainment companies have known this for decades, but I get the sense the average American citizen still thinks of themselves as a free and independent thinker and not a product of their environment. Problem is, even if they are a free and independen…

Ultimately a non-trivial number of people have a collection of views that confound traditional left/right political boundaries in the US. I think CA was (allegedly) very effective in promoting issues that emphasized particular collections of views well, specifically on immigration.

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#16

Post by tiborsaas » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:40 PM UTC

growlist wrote: post #13

fmakunbound wrote: post #10

After having seen The Great Hack https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9358204/ over the weekend, it's hard to imagine how the scope expanded again. They used the developing countries all over the world as practice for UK brexit and US's 2016 elections.

> UK brexit Is there any rock solid evidence around this yet? As far as I'm aware it's still in the realm of conspiracy theory. Given how far she's spun hearsay, circumstantial evidence and speculation, I'm betting if Carole Cadwalladr etc. did have anything concrete we'd never hear the end of it.

Evidence for what? Cambridge Analytica's role in Brexit?

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#17

Post by Moodles » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:42 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #8

Probably the most useful takeaway from CA's approach is that it's useful to realize how malleable opinions are of large swaths of "independent" voters. Ad experts and entertainment companies have known this for decades, but I get the sense the average American citizen still thinks of themselves as a free and independent thinker and not a product of their environment. Problem is, even if they are a free and independen…

I liked your comment until you brought Trump vs Clinton politics into it. I think it's better if you leave that part out.

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#18

Post by qmmmur » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:43 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #8

Probably the most useful takeaway from CA's approach is that it's useful to realize how malleable opinions are of large swaths of "independent" voters. Ad experts and entertainment companies have known this for decades, but I get the sense the average American citizen still thinks of themselves as a free and independent thinker and not a product of their environment. Problem is, even if they are a free and independen…

You don't even need as good as on average in the right circumstances. Take Britain, which only has a sample size of its 650 constituents and whose votes within those are not represented if not the majority. In fact, the seat of power rests in those seats which can flip flop by very small margins.

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#19

Post by groundlessly » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:43 PM UTC

Mikeb85 wrote: post #11

shadowgovt wrote: post #8

Probably the most useful takeaway from CA's approach is that it's useful to realize how malleable opinions are of large swaths of "independent" voters. Ad experts and entertainment companies have known this for decades, but I get the sense the average American citizen still thinks of themselves as a free and independent thinker and not a product of their environment. Problem is, even if they are a free and independen…

Anti-establishment sentiment has been brewing for awhile. Some candidates simply tapped into that (Bernie, Trump) whereas the losing candidates either pretended everything was fine (Clinton) or relied on older political ideas (Cruz). I don't think CA was responsible for forming opinions so much as knowing exactly how to exploit existing opinions. And anti-establishment opinions are still popular (Warren and Sanders a…

It’s absolutely wild to me that, with the benefit of 2020 hindsight, we’re still drawing conclusions about the public based on the fact that the person who earned by far the most votes of any candidate in the race still technically lost the election.

For people who pride ourselves so much on understanding how systems work, we’re consistently really bad at understanding this one.

Maybe public opinion in the US is fickle or uninformed. Maybe it’s not. Either way it’s not reflected in the US political landscape, for the simple reason that the US political landscape reflects many things more consequential than public opinion.

Re: New Cambridge Analytica Leaks

#20

Post by rjsw » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 4:43 PM UTC

growlist wrote: post #13

fmakunbound wrote: post #10

After having seen The Great Hack https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9358204/ over the weekend, it's hard to imagine how the scope expanded again. They used the developing countries all over the world as practice for UK brexit and US's 2016 elections.

> UK brexit Is there any rock solid evidence around this yet? As far as I'm aware it's still in the realm of conspiracy theory. Given how far she's spun hearsay, circumstantial evidence and speculation, I'm betting if Carole Cadwalladr etc. did have anything concrete we'd never hear the end of it.

It sounds like the management/salespeople of CA have been telling potential clients that they could affect election results whether it was true or not.