What Will Happen in the 2020s • Hacker News Board

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#681

Post by ace_of_spades » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 11:23 AM UTC

SllX wrote: post #680

ace_of_spades wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point that I was trying to make is to try to show you that I am pretty sure that you actually do care about moral questions in the case of climate change (on the surface you seem to argue it’s a matter of justice and paying for the true cost of your actions but the very reason that carbon is being priced in the first place (and you accept that price) is that it causes suffering in the world, right? You wouldn‘t a…

I won’t judge them for caring, I won’t even judge them, but I do find being preached at to be generally unenjoyable and I don’t enjoy the company of people who wish to preach to me rather than engage me. You’ve engaged me, but that’s not what I have come to expect from vegans who are of an evangelical type, and I say that without it meaning to be disparaging, merely descriptive. For what it is worth to you, I purchas…

Thanks for your reply. It's good to see that you reflect your own thinking and attempt to articulate a coherent position. If you enjoy this type of engagement, I can also recommend you the following short youtube video (~3 min) with a philosophical thought experiment that turns the table on you and asks whether you would still hold your position in that case: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSUz6Rj5oo4.

Would be interested to hear your reply to that :)

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#682

Post by ace_of_spades » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 11:37 AM UTC

SllX wrote: post #678

rlue wrote: post #667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m not going to convince anyone that it isn’t a moral issue anymore than they will convince me that it is. This is really unfortunate. An anti-vaxxer knows that it’s a question of science, just as a Holocaust denier knows that it’s a question of historical record (even if they lack the scientific/historical literacy to see through the counterfactual narratives they’ve bought into). There’s insurmountable convictio…

I considered the morality of eating meat for a decent portion of my life. The conclusion I came to is such things like ethical vegetarianism is an ethical and intellectual dead end which disregards the nature of the beast, and the beast is the most violent and violently omnivorous apex predator to ever grace the Earth. If there’s a landmass we haven’t walked, it’s because it is literally underwater having been forecl…

Yeah, you should really have a look at the youtube video I linked to in my sibling comment. What you buy into with your position is the right of strong or the law of the jungle which is something we as humanity have been trying to overcome and shown to be less effective than cooperation.

If you don't buy into this for your own species, why do you cling to this world view in relation to other species? Have you ever considered that the universe is evolving and old practices which have worked at one point can/should be replaced by more effective ones? Just because we had cruel practices at one point, doesn't mean we should hold on to them if we notice that there are better alternatives.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#683

Post by rlue » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:18 PM UTC

SllX wrote: post #678

rlue wrote: post #667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m not going to convince anyone that it isn’t a moral issue anymore than they will convince me that it is. This is really unfortunate. An anti-vaxxer knows that it’s a question of science, just as a Holocaust denier knows that it’s a question of historical record (even if they lack the scientific/historical literacy to see through the counterfactual narratives they’ve bought into). There’s insurmountable convictio…

I considered the morality of eating meat for a decent portion of my life. The conclusion I came to is such things like ethical vegetarianism is an ethical and intellectual dead end which disregards the nature of the beast, and the beast is the most violent and violently omnivorous apex predator to ever grace the Earth. If there’s a landmass we haven’t walked, it’s because it is literally underwater having been forecl…

I appreciate you taking the time to respond here, especially when your ultimate position is a foregone conclusion. I share your pessimism about the overall trajectory of human progress, and there are parts of me that believe that the destructive patterns of human settlement are themselves an expression of the unique but entirely natural phenomenon that is our species. Finding optimism in spite of these facts is an exercise in mental contradiction.

But I am curious to know what you think: couldn't you have made this same argument about slavery two hundred years ago?

"The conclusion I came to is such things like ethical emancipation is an ethical and intellectual dead end which disregards the nature of the beast, and the beast is the most hierarchical, socially stratified, and conquest-driven species to ever grace the Earth. If there's a people that hasn't been dominated by another, it's because they're so remote as to be beyond the reach of civilized society.

"If the way things are isn't right, then it is besides the point because the way things are is so deeply rooted into our psychology that you can't change it without violently changing what it means to be human..."

Again, I'm not saying you should stop eating meat. I'd like to, but even I haven't. I'm also not saying that I would have asked a 19th-century plantation owner to just give up his slaves voluntarily. But I think the Civil War was the single most defining struggle in the building of our nation's moral character. Would you rather live in the America we have, or in the alternate-universe America where our great-grandparents skirted this question so that they could "live and let live"?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#684

Post by harambaebae69 » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #13

I kind of doubt most of these. My prediction: 1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. 2. we will have further centralization of the internet 3. Solar will only account for 10k Gw 4. Agree that nuclear will make a massive resurgence 5. Gas will still be the dominate power source for mobile transportation, but less so. Thi…

> 7. California housing market will collapse due to high electricity prices, lack of electricity and wildfires

Hope you're right about the CA housing market coming down, but I think more likely is just that Gavin Newsom and ilk get booted out for their failures to reign in PG&E and housing prices aren't particularly effected one way or the other.

Wildfires are generally not in the densely populated areas, so I don't think they'll move the needle much.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#685

Post by torstenvl » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 11:02 PM UTC

__d wrote: post #666

torstenvl wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I buy carbon offsets based on a questionnaire about lifestyle. It works out to about $180-220 USD per year, depending on whether I take a vacation by flying to Europe. If that were factored into prices as a tax I don't think it would count as an astronomical increase. But perhaps the questionnaire and algorithm from terrapass is deficient in some way. What are you basing your calculations off of?

A quick look at Terrapass, and their individual calculator, doesn't seem include any information about diet? Perhaps I was looking at the wrong one?

You're right. Looking at it again, it doesn't. However, this site says that a vegetarian diet saves about one ton of CO2 per year over an average American diet: http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/food-carbon-footprint-diet

That still isn't very expensive in terms of offsets - about $10/year (Terrapass sells the offsets for $4.99 per 1,000 lbs). Why do you think that's astronomical?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#686

Post by Spearchucker » Sun, Jan 05, 2020, 9:19 PM UTC

jackcosgrove wrote: post #439

Spearchucker wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple clients sync to/from a server. Server syncs with other servers. Part of the sync with clients is a list of all servers so clients can cycle servers until sync succeeds. Eventual consistency. I'm doing this with a small dataset now.

That solves consistency but does not secure the data against a malicious node.

Data is encrypted (or not) by the client. The server is a zero-knowledge sync service.

I have an open source client that does client side encryption. I hope that once released people will use it, or ideas from it, to create their own clients.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#687

Post by zik » Sun, Jan 05, 2020, 11:58 PM UTC

brlewis wrote: post #444

zik wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check the rate of nuclear power plants being built. It's fallen off a cliff. The people who finance nuclear reactors already think that nuclear power will be uneconomic in the lifetime of any new plants.

I looked that up. There are 450 plants in operation worldwide and 50 under construction. That sounds like healthy growth. https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-an...

It looks like they're in the process of decommissioning nuclear power plants in most places and they're expected to be functionally extinct by 2055.

https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/png/10-12.png

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#688

Post by antepodius » Mon, Jan 06, 2020, 2:39 PM UTC

joejerryronnie wrote: post #591

antepodius wrote: post #577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the deal with this videogamey bullshit you're proposing? Why would anyone want to participate in this? First thing I'm doing is installing an adblocker/augblocker to byoass this sort of thing.

Dude, it’s to prevent people from interrupting you when you’re trying to work. It would literally be designed to keep shitty coworkers like you away from my desk.

I don't want to annoy people/be annoyed, either: if you want to be left alone, put up a sign. But you can't force people to participate in a virtual fantasy dragon battle- they'll just refuse and look at you weird!

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#689

Post by anonytrary » Tue, Jan 07, 2020, 10:55 AM UTC

dehrmann wrote: post #259

ianai wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve seen at least one article suggesting the end of centralization into cities. I suspect LEO based internet services will further help people move back to the country. All that’s needed is work out there.

A friend lived outside a city of 20,000 in rural Colorado. He dropped $10-20k to get fiber run out. It seems like a lot, but If that's literally the only thing keeping you from moving from the Bay Area to a small town, you just haven't done your research.

Yeah people think the internet alone is powerful enough to reverse physical centralization, which is happening due to much, much stronger factors.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#690

Post by __d » Tue, Jan 07, 2020, 9:15 PM UTC

torstenvl wrote: post #685

__d wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A quick look at Terrapass, and their individual calculator, doesn't seem include any information about diet? Perhaps I was looking at the wrong one?

You're right. Looking at it again, it doesn't. However, this site says that a vegetarian diet saves about one ton of CO2 per year over an average American diet: http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/food-carbon-footprint-diet That still isn't very expensive in terms of offsets - about $10/year (Terrapass sells the offsets for $4.99 per 1,000 lbs). Why do you think that's astronomical?

I was coming from the other end. I've repeated seen claims that livestock contributes a significant fraction of global greenhouse emissions. eg. most recently, a claim of 17% in this article https://a16z.com/2019/12/30/life-in-2030/ from HN yesterday.

I assumed that eg. 17% of the global total meant the individual allocation would be large, and thus very expensive to offset.

Note that there's a CH4 vs. CO2 conflation in the mix here, which probably doesn't help.

But it still doesn't seem to add up: if I can eat a "meat lovers" diet and that's only $10/year to offset, and it's roughly 15% of global emissions, that'd suggest that around $70/year could offset 100% of global emissions.