Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010) • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#401

Post by icebraining » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 11:48 PM UTC

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #348

buboard wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people tend to make optimistic predictions. A lot of predictions were correct, and many of them were right on subject, but predicted the positive instead of the negative turn of things. Interesting views regardless, but i cant help to notice that tech progress was nothing like 2000->2010.

I feel like enormous cultural and technological hardware advancements were made between 1990-2010 that affected people on a national or global level. The advances were revolutionary. I have a hard time associating the last decade the same way. To me, the 2010-2020 decade has been stagnant. My overall sentiments, more or less: 1990->2000 we went from very few people owning personal computers to wider adoption of PCs a…

Electric cars really started gaining traction in the 2010s, with the Leaf, Model S, Zoe, etc.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#402

Post by icebraining » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 12:00 AM UTC

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #375

calcifer wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"No Way To Prevent This", Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%27No_Way_To_Prevent_This,%27_...

Despite the vail of Wikipedia, your source is The Onion. Does the onion’s satirical joke take into account all the places there are no guns but this does still happens? Paris France, and Norway, have both had worse mass and school shootings than any in the USA ever.

Which school shootings in France and Norway have been worse than any in the USA?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#403

Post by Dylan16807 » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 12:06 AM UTC

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #369

jonny_eh wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it so bad to make guns as hard to own as a car? Simple licensing would go a long way to reduce the risk of guns. https://www.vox.com/2019/9/11/20861019/gun-solution-backgrou...

> Is it so bad to make guns as hard to own as a car? The ONLY people that say this are the ones that would be (fucking) horrified if we treated guns like cars. Ok. You are proposing I should be able to buy any gun I want whenever I want regardless of size or capacity, automatic, or loud or silenced for cash without any checks or regulations at all? That the only requirement to use it in public is that I need a licens…

It's not a tradeoff between manufacturing restrictions and licensing restrictions.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#404

Post by icebraining » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 12:07 AM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #287

soneca wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, definitely Bitcoin

Bitcoin isn't really all that cool though. It replaces trust with massive resource consumption and doesn't do a good job of being digital money (it is hard to use safely, it is hard to use anonymously).

Eh, bitcoin is still a cool proof-of-concept. It's just that as it often happens, people took it to production when they shouldn't.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#405

Post by School-Cotton » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 12:20 AM UTC

sodafountan wrote: post #380

WA wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok I make a prediction here for 2030: Bitcoin won't be at $1M at all, very far from it. Bitcoin will be between $0 and the cost of mining a single coin. Right now, this is around $7,000. Could be similar or less in 2030. I don't expect it to go anywhere. It seems to have a niche purpose, but will never gain mass adoption. I make another prediction: By 2030 not a single cryptocurrency will be used mainstream / have re…

That's a bold prediction, I predict that gaming could see a huge uptick in crypto-currency usage. Could you imagine a game like Grand Theft Auto or World of Warcraft utilizing a crypto-currency rather than an in-game artificial currency? You could create entire in-game economies with real life value. People could actually make a living by playing games full time as scary as that sounds. Could you imagine the moral im…

As for most proposed cryptocurrency use cases, it's unclear why your example couldn't just be a number in a database maintained by the game's producers.

BTW, people already do make real-world money grinding for WoW gold.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#406

Post by SlowRobotAhead » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 1:31 AM UTC

icebraining wrote: post #402

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite the vail of Wikipedia, your source is The Onion. Does the onion’s satirical joke take into account all the places there are no guns but this does still happens? Paris France, and Norway, have both had worse mass and school shootings than any in the USA ever.

Which school shootings in France and Norway have been worse than any in the USA?

Paris was the mass shooting I was referencing. 184 dead irrc.

Norway, School summer camp in 2011. I suppose it’s not exactly what you think of when you think of skin shooting inside a school building, but the people killed were almost exclusively children. Perpetrator use a rifle that has not been legal in Norway for civilians.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#407

Post by ksec » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 1:31 AM UTC

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #348

buboard wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people tend to make optimistic predictions. A lot of predictions were correct, and many of them were right on subject, but predicted the positive instead of the negative turn of things. Interesting views regardless, but i cant help to notice that tech progress was nothing like 2000->2010.

I feel like enormous cultural and technological hardware advancements were made between 1990-2010 that affected people on a national or global level. The advances were revolutionary. I have a hard time associating the last decade the same way. To me, the 2010-2020 decade has been stagnant. My overall sentiments, more or less: 1990->2000 we went from very few people owning personal computers to wider adoption of PCs a…

Copying my answer from another thread

I am surprised with no mention of Smartphone. Which is arguably the most important innovation in modern history. 2010s, Smartphone ( iPhone 3GS at the time ) went from niche to 4B users ( iOS, Androids and KaiOS ), that is nearly every person on earth above age 14 in developed countries. I dont think there has ever been a product or technology innovation as important that spread faster than Smartphone. And it changes everyone's life. The post mentioned of Google, Facebook and Amazon empire, all partly grows to this point because of Smartphones. Technology companies together now worth close to 10 Trillions. The whole manufacturing supply chain exists and became huge in Shenzhen because of Smartphone. It was the reason why TSMC managed to catch up to Intel in both capacity and leading edge node. It was the reason why we went from 3G to 5G in mere 10 years because of all the investment kept pouring it. It was the reason why everyone went on to the Internet and had Internet economy. It brought a handheld PC and Internet to a much wider audience. I would even argue it was the Smartphone innovation that saved us from the post 2008 Financial Crisis doom as it created so much wealth, innovation and opportunities.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#408

Post by crimsonalucard » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 1:44 AM UTC

dnautics wrote: post #394

crimsonalucard wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boot camp and react aren’t mainstream programming. Also react isn’t full FP.

that's a no scotsman argument. You could claim erlang isn't full fp because you have a stateful process attribute dictionary, and, while we're at it, access to network resources like a Postgres database, but that would be an almost meaningless statement. With Hooks, react basically went full FP. You can still make an object component, but it is frowned upon.

nah not even going there. JS, is not functional therefore react is not functional. In all intermediary state in between interfaces to the framework you are allowed to have mutating state. So you actually have freedom to do any style in JS. I don't know react to well but I do know 100% that a function with this name is possible in react:

   function closedFunctionThatdoesSomeImperativeAlgorithmWithMutatingInternalState(x: number): number

Right? This is totally legal and not even a niche use case so you can do whatever the hell you want in react. It's the interface to the framework that is supposedly FRP. This is NOT the case for most functional languages.

Also if you think all FP is just immutable state then you don't see the full picture. Immutable state creates an isomorphism between imperative programming and functional programming. Thus many bootcampers following the buzz end up just making all their variables immutable and thinking they figured it all out.

Yes, immutability forces the usage of higher order functions and recursion. This surface level knowledge also doesn't really provide any intrinsic benefit to programming. Recursion, map or reduce is not intrinsically better than a for loop or a while loop. Most of these beginners just subconsciously obey the buzz without ever realizing that that the buzz makes no sense. These guys don't even know what "function composition" means.

Because most of these programmers don't understand why FP is better, they don't use it properly and as a result this popularity of FP among react users is just a fad. Definitely not mainstream.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#409

Post by icebraining » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 1:53 AM UTC

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #406

icebraining wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which school shootings in France and Norway have been worse than any in the USA?

Paris was the mass shooting I was referencing. 184 dead irrc. Norway, School summer camp in 2011. I suppose it’s not exactly what you think of when you think of skin shooting inside a school building, but the people killed were almost exclusively children. Perpetrator use a rifle that has not been legal in Norway for civilians.

It wasn't a school summer camp - it was organized by a left-wing political party - and most of the people killed were adults.

He used a Ruger Mini-14 and a Glock pistol for which he had a legal license as a civilian (for hunting and sport shooting respectively), purchased in Norway - the country with the second highest legal gun ownership rate in the EU - after he failed to illegally acquire guns in Prague.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#410

Post by etrabroline » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:03 AM UTC

jonny_eh wrote: post #388

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is it so bad to make guns as hard to own as a car? The ONLY people that say this are the ones that would be (fucking) horrified if we treated guns like cars. Ok. You are proposing I should be able to buy any gun I want whenever I want regardless of size or capacity, automatic, or loud or silenced for cash without any checks or regulations at all? That the only requirement to use it in public is that I need a licens…

> Ok. You are proposing I should be able to buy any gun I want whenever I want regardless of size or capacity, automatic, or loud or silenced for cash without any checks or regulations at all? What? No.

But that's how loosely cars are regulated, and you said you wanted guns regulated like cars. I think what you meant to say is to regulate guns much more strictly than cars.