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When good ideas make bad business

tjcx.me

301–310 of 361 posts

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#301
The most disappointing thing in this story is that glaciermd.com doesn't even resolve anymore.

He started a business in 2017, and closed the doors in 2018. What?

Recently, I was contacted by a person who told me he saw one of my videos on YouTube about Ycombinator (it had 50 views!!!), he had to meet me in person. We met a couple days later. He was a very smart guy with an impressive resume.

He quit his job in equipment manufacturing to pursue entrepreneurship. He was a former USC student, so naturally he traveled back to California, rented a small room where him and his business partner churned on their idea. It was a sort of classified for colleges.

Not a terrible idea in anyway. He knew the college life so he must have known things I didn't. I told him he should have tested his idea before quitting his job and moving into a whole other country where he had only been a student. He showed me the website, and it was obviously made by someone who was learning React. There is no need to go fancy when you are still testing your ideas. But there was a problem.

They were paying thousands of dollars a month to keep this barely functional app running.

This is something I see a lot of young people entering web development are doing. They get beefed-up cloud services that eat up a good chunk of their money. Most people think this is the regular cost of being online. It's not! A year later, the domain name doesn't resolve either.

In the story, OP alludes living with his parents. I imagine to save money. But then there is $40k. I hope that it wasn't mostly on the AWS cost. But he gathered valuable data that did cost money.

Don't shut down the website. Keep it running and make the data available in read only mode and add a donation button (alternative to ads). It should cost $5 a month to host on linode or digitalocean. Don't let the money you spent go down the drain.

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just a programatic meta analysis. And no one's get sued for having an out of date meta analysis.

It's America - people get sued for far, far less.

Anyone could theoretically get sued for anything. But the chance of getting sued for providing an out of date meta-analysis is indistinguishable from the background chance of getting sued for getting out of bed in the morning. (assuming you're not doing something stupid)

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#303

I wish he could have invested more in the idea - I think it's an amazing concept but the creator pulled the plug too early. Sales cycles in B2B can take months, and in healthcare they can take years. Especially the doctor's feedback, she described the possibility of changing her habits slowly as she got used to using the tool. Unrelated: "I always have the best interests of my patients in mind, but, you know, it’s no…

I agree with you, but at least she was honest. Many others would say no for the same reason, but wouldn't be honest about it. A prospect who is honest about their true reasons for saying no is extremely valuable when you're pitching an early product.

I think in general, if you're building a business, expecting anyone to do something that isn't in their own selfish interest in some way is a recipe for failure, even if people in your target market might claim not to have selfish motivations. If you want someone to change their behavior (and/or their organization's behavior), you need to be able to clearly explain why it's a win for that specific person.

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the key insight is that you have to take a step back and just treat healthcare like any other for-profit business. Doctors and hospitals care about what generates revenue. Insurance companies want to save money. Pharma companies are looking to advertise to new customers. It's no different than other industries. This is one of the most concise and effective arguments I have read for Medicare-For-All, Single Paye…

I'm all for removing the broken system we have today, but a single payer system doesn't remove the challenge that the entrepreneur faces - it just changes it. Under single payer, you are now trying to sell to a large government organization, with all the pain and red tape that comes with that.

Presumably the government will be incentivized to try to save lives in a way that simply doesn't exist for doctors and insurance companies trying to make a profit.

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#305
I can't understand the last part of the article

"Doppelganger has created value for the customer but not for the company."

Isn't the value for the company created through the value for the customers? I.E. you take a percentage of the value for the customers as the value for the company.

What would be an example of creating value for the company?

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#306
I love the idea, but I'm sad that the author focused on doctors, and not ordinary people that he mentioned at the very beginning. This could be a great application used by everyone, including Google, to provide better search results, at the same time providing more and more traffic. Mentioned ad revenue could also work, but not only this.

If the author reads this, do not be like Google, don't give up, just pivot. Yes, I think it's Brilliant Startup Idea that could be back in a few months better than last time. :)

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"This is precisely why we need universal healthcare. The incentive structure of private markets don't properly value human life." Government-run healthcare isn't a panacea that will 'value human life' any more than the insurance companies. You are still a number in a database somewhere. Most new drugs come out of the US and socialized governments create generics at a fraction of the cost, because they don't have to p…

Take all my karma... Implementing something like what you describe, IMHO, would have the greatest positive impact on the health and welfare of Americans, of anything this century. I have a friend who is very high up in one of the largest health insurance providers in the US, and I have often debated over the years with this person that same point, that the insurance layer is what creates the model for inefficiency, a…

Take a look at some of the "universal catastrophic coverage" proposals. The ideas is to BOTH socialize and increase market competition for healthcare at the same time. Universal care if you get cancer or for other chronic/terminal conditions. Then have a real market and competition for everything else. Regulate safety but not pricing or delivery. (Many of these plans also call for universal preventative services that drive down costs for the whole system). The Dutch have something closer to this in practice with "universal long-term care insurance" separated from the basic/primary insurance, but I've heard mixed reviews of how this works in practice.

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#309
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"This is precisely why we need universal healthcare. The incentive structure of private markets don't properly value human life." Government-run healthcare isn't a panacea that will 'value human life' any more than the insurance companies. You are still a number in a database somewhere. Most new drugs come out of the US and socialized governments create generics at a fraction of the cost, because they don't have to p…

The drug things is partially BS. The top 10 big Pharma (in random order) GlaxoSmithKline British Eli Lilly US Sanofi French AbbVie US Roche Swiss Pfizer US Novartis Swiss Merck & Co US AstraZeneca British/Swedish Johnson & Johnson US (edit spacing)

Hard to say. These are all internationalized firms with a variety of global operations centers. I know GSK does a lot of their research in North Carolina. But that is beside the key argument, which is that the US pays more (in aggregated cost and volume) to these firms, such that the total revenue for a product line during the patent lifetime justifies the cost to both bring the drug to market and pay for a variety of failures that didn't make it to market. I'm not sure if this is true, but it does seem plausible. And even if it is true, it still might be better to, say, fund more university based research instead, or have lower per-unit costs and pay innovation bounties or any number of other schemes.

Re: When good ideas make bad business

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"This is precisely why we need universal healthcare. The incentive structure of private markets don't properly value human life." Government-run healthcare isn't a panacea that will 'value human life' any more than the insurance companies. You are still a number in a database somewhere. Most new drugs come out of the US and socialized governments create generics at a fraction of the cost, because they don't have to p…

I am on the fence between Single Payer and your proposed solution of "push the cost to patient to force the price down". I do think the same but the appeal of universal healthcare is similar to the appeal of things like fire department. We don't really always need it but when we do, we don't want to worry about it. Honestly, as long we get rid of the mafia middleman a.k.a insurance company except for real catastrophi…

The problem with the fire department is the freerider problem - if I pay for the fire department’s “protection” but my neighbor doesn’t, and his/her house is on fire, the fire department has to save my neighbor’s house in order to save mine, so the neighbor is not incentivised to pay.

Healthcare doesn’t have this issue (except in emergency services), so public healthcare also doesn’t solve that. It solves problems such as the principal-agent problem, asymmetric information, improves collective bargaining, ...

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