Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia • Hacker News Board

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#211

Post by roenxi » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:49 PM UTC

nl wrote: post #201

roenxi wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Additionally your 10% additional cost of energy is nonsense. Australia hasn't had a functioning energy policy is 10 years, which is the primary reason costs are so high. Any kind of policy which both sides of politics agree on (at least roughly!) will provide investment certainty and cut that cost. Finkel review [0], page 201, Levelised Cost of Electricity in 2020 estimates solar at ~91 $/MWh vs ~76 $/MWh supercrit…

You don't set policies for what is happening now, you set them for the future. A future where (according to exactly the same reference!) solar will be cheaper than coal by 2030 (~61 $/MWh vs ~76 $/MWh supercritical coal). I'd also note that this report was done in 2017, and the LCOE for solar has decreased more rapidly than expected. This Lazard report done only a year later puts large scale solar at US$36-43/MWh (=…

But in solar basically the entire cost is paid up-front. The cost in 2030 only applies if the infrastructure is built in 2030.

> I'd also note that this report was done in 2017, and the LCOE for solar has decreased more rapidly than expected. This Lazard report done only a year later puts large scale solar at US$36-43/MWh (= A$51-63/MWh).

If it started to make commercial sense to build solar in 2017 then it really doesn't make sense to change anything we're doing after these bushfires since any problem will will resolve itself. The underlining point is that this crisis isn't a catalyst to rethink our energy policy. The two things just aren't realistically linked. We don't emit enough carbon for it to be relevant for global pollution.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#212

Post by nl » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 1:18 AM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #211

nl wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't set policies for what is happening now, you set them for the future. A future where (according to exactly the same reference!) solar will be cheaper than coal by 2030 (~61 $/MWh vs ~76 $/MWh supercritical coal). I'd also note that this report was done in 2017, and the LCOE for solar has decreased more rapidly than expected. This Lazard report done only a year later puts large scale solar at US$36-43/MWh (=…

But in solar basically the entire cost is paid up-front. The cost in 2030 only applies if the infrastructure is built in 2030. > I'd also note that this report was done in 2017, and the LCOE for solar has decreased more rapidly than expected. This Lazard report done only a year later puts large scale solar at US$36-43/MWh (= A$51-63/MWh). If it started to make commercial sense to build solar in 2017 then it really do…

But in solar basically the entire cost is paid up-front. The cost in 2030 only applies if the infrastructure is built in 2030.

Which is why you start transitioning now, so we get a resilient energy system.

it really doesn't make sense to change anything we're doing after these bushfires since any problem will will resolve itself

No, because the current government actually wants to build new coal fired power stations and open new coal mines.

The underlining point is that this crisis isn't a catalyst to rethink our energy policy.

Yes you keep parroting this line. But I noticed you ignored the tourism industry costs above as well as the arguments about how successful the German transition had been.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#213

Post by roenxi » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 4:24 AM UTC

yassam wrote: post #210

roenxi wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW 2016, Begg 2007) has estimated that about 3000 deaths (equivalent to about 28,000 years of life lost) are attributable to urban air pollution in Australia each year (Figure ATM29). [0] Ouch. That is bad. It does require a response. However it is close enough to normal that it wouldn't change any rational decisions about our energy mix. This crisis is small enough…

> ...without winding in a decarbonisation scheme that doesn't actually do anything I take issue with this. Australia's contribution to GHG emissions does contribute to warming. Even if it's only 1.3% (greater if you take exports into account [0]) it has an effect. Also, more than 20% of global emissions are emitted by countries with lower overall emissions than us [1]. If they all used our excuse [2], do you think th…

> Also, more than 20% of global emissions are emitted by countries with lower overall emissions than us [1]. If they all used our excuse [2], do you think that would be acceptable?

The compliment of 20% is 80%. Those countries could all drop their emissions to 0 and any problem from emissions would still be 80% there and so still be about as bad as it ever was. So yes everyone smaller than us can use the same excuse. What matters policy-wise is the leadership in China & the United States.

> We also have among the highest per capita emissions in the world [3].

Yeah. We don't have any nuclear plants. Puts us a bit behind the 8 ball. We should fix that up too and build some. Labor needs to be more vocal about supporting nuclear energy.

There is a link between counties that make heavy use of nuclear energy and countries that have low emissions and air free of coal dust.

> Australia is already suffering from the effects of a climate emergency, with conditions predicted to get orders of magnitude worse this century. We should be taking a lead in the decarbonisation effort so we can urge the rest of the world to do the same, for our sakes, as well as theirs.

Germany already did that, it didn't impress very many people; it looked expensive and didn't actually help their emissions much. We should restrict ourselves to trying things that are likely to work and actually address the issues we are facing, which decarbonisation does not. There isn't anyone here who can seriously argue that Australia decarbonising would have had any impact on these bushfires. If Australia were completely decarbonised and had stopped exporting coal they would still have happened.

A positive actions in anyone's book happens to be just waiting another decade until it becomes economic to build photovoltaic solar; according to the Finkel report.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#214

Post by Khaine » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 8:49 AM UTC

There has been a lack of leadership in Australia for at least a generation. Since Rudd took office, politicians have been driven by polls and the media.

The current government is no exception. We need to do more to protect Australia's environment, including from climate change. We are letting the Great Barrier Reef wither away, and our land is burning.

The lack of leadership is particularly frustrating. Instead of developing and growing new sustainable industries that will be around when the world has de-carbonised the government is doubling down on coal. It is utter madness. We have lacked a cohesive energy policy for over a decade due to climate change being a political issue where sides have been divided. Its hard to believe, but in 2007 the collation under John Howard took a carbon emissions policy to the election. We have regressed in policy from that point.

Ultimately, a lot of the blame for all of this sits with the Greens. If they had been so blinded by purity and supported Rudd's carbon pollution reduction scheme. It would have been in place, and like the GST been settled. Instead they allowed it to become a political football. That plus Gillard's ineptness with the carbon tax has made this a toxic debate.

Talk is cheap, and the only thing that will change it is writing to your representative and letting them know. I strongly urge you to respectfully write to your MP and let them know they need to do better.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#215

Post by JetBen » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 8:52 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #166

JetBen wrote: post #113

"Throw another shrimp on the barbie", he said. "No worries, mate. It'll be fine", he said... FYI - I'm an Aussie born and bred, and part of our culture is to laugh at ourselves, even during the hard times. That's how Australians stay so resilient through hardship.

"It'll be fine"? Not "She'll be right"?

Ha! I already got downvoted for my culturally appropriate joke. If I'd said "She'll be right", I probably would have gotten banned from HN.... again.