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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#91

Post by Aperocky »

mattmanser wrote: post #49
maerF0x0 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- As Moore's Law marches on, dynamic languages that are even slower than Ruby are likely to catch on. They may be to Ruby what Ruby is to Java, trading even more programmer time for CPU time. I dont think this happened?

You could argue that it's JavaScript. JavaScript had terrible performance even in 2008, can't remember now what it was like by 2010, but I would guess V8 was still pretty lacklustre back then.

People who have seen more than I have: how much slower were JavaScript in IE6 vs V8?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#92

Post by [deleted] »

mooman219 wrote: post #66
ra7 wrote: post #4

A lot of doom and gloom for Microsoft in that thread. But Microsoft has fared much better than anyone expected.

I disagree, I think anyone the put in charge would have done well. Satya came in during one of the biggest bull runs in history and just surfed the wave. Even Ballmer would have had a hard time to stop that.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#93

Post by Aperocky »

gregdoesit wrote: post #3

What a fun read! The one that ended up being the most off in the thread: > I predict (and hope for) a major turn back to simplicity in technologies. Multimillion-line software will go extinct like dinosaurs. Existing programming languages and platforms will gradually be replaced with ones so simple and elegant that one software component will be written and maintained by one to three developers and art designers and…

> Even more framework and abstractions.

npm and is_odd comes to mind.

There surely is a lot of frameworks, it almost make more sense to have less.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#94

Post by BigJono »

ricardobeat wrote: post #72
zozbot234 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say that this prediction is describing current developments quite well. Newer programming languages (Go, Rust) and development tools are making the "software as lean independent components" vision more relevant than it ever was.

I don't know where you come from, but all I see in my bubble is immense growth in Java and massive Apache projects / ecosystems. Exactly the opposite.

Ditto for Javascript. When I first used React in 2015 I thought it might be a harbinger for unix philosophy tools in the web space. A lib with a simple API that solves a single hard problem with a good implementation under the hood.

What I never predicted was the sheer enormity of the useless cruft the community would build around it. I used to contribute to some of the React community places (particularly irc), and in the early days the discussion there was super interesting. Now it's just endless waves of "I'm building X and having Y problem with dependency Z" where Z is something I've never used because it looks shit, Y is something I haven't encountered in 3 years, and X is something I could build in my sleep with just plain old React.

I've always wondered if Java devs feel the same, or if they're happy drowning in whatever crap is in their ecosystem? Like, do they all love Java but hate every single code base they have to work on? Or is that a uniquely JS problem?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#95

Post by michaelkeenan »

eric-hu wrote: post #77
haunter wrote: post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

> - China will not become a democracy, or even make moves in that direction. However the rule of law will strengthen, and some civil liberties will increase. The latter half of this one didn't come to be. Rule of law is weaker and civil liberties have declined.

According to the World Bank's metric, China's percentile ranking on rule of law improved somewhat from 2010 to 2018 (eyeballing the chart, looks like it moved from 40th to 48th). This is of course not quite the same thing as an absolute increase in rule of law; if rule of law is worsening everywhere, then the ranking change could still be a decrease (though globally worse rule of law isn't my impression).

https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#98

Post by School-Cotton »

jamiek88 wrote: post #78
DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they sold it all in the 2013 bubble and now regret it. (This happened to a friend of mine - he sold it all off to pay-off his student loans before the 2013 bubble peaked - it'd be worth over $10m at the end of 2017).

Or, like me, literally deleted my wallet with 100 ish coins in 'cos I couldn't be bothered finding a USB key. I though 'oh I'll just mine a few more next week' when I get my new laptop (!!! mining on cpu). Narrator: He forgot about it.

If you still have the old machine, it's not impossible that the deleted wallet is still on the disk and could be recovered using some sort of undelete tool.
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