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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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41–50 of 462 posts

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#41
post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

- As Moore's Law marches on, dynamic languages that are even slower than Ruby are likely to catch on. They may be to Ruby what Ruby is to Java, trading even more programmer time for CPU time.

I dont think this happened?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#42

What a fun read! The one that ended up being the most off in the thread: > I predict (and hope for) a major turn back to simplicity in technologies. Multimillion-line software will go extinct like dinosaurs. Existing programming languages and platforms will gradually be replaced with ones so simple and elegant that one software component will be written and maintained by one to three developers and art designers and…

I'd say that this prediction is describing current developments quite well. Newer programming languages (Go, Rust) and development tools are making the "software as lean independent components" vision more relevant than it ever was.

He is quoting from 2010 and predicts the very opposite and I fully support the claim. Reasons:

  * industry has either no interest or capacity in quality
  * software flaws may cause severe harm but will play no role for the majority of the industry. it is a gamble just like vc business.
  * pace of change/inonnovation will actually add even more harm
  * excellence in the field will decrease because the baseline compexity is already too high, people will specialize probably in ML/AI/fin.
One chance I see is that the industry runs into a major HR crisis and some smart players understand that the complexity cannot be maintained by "developers" or "software engineers" anymore and come up with solutions other than opening up more positions.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#43
post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

The dynamic languages slower than ruby prediction didn't hold up either. The past ten years have just seen nibbling around the edges for dynamic languages, without any compelling ideas about how to make them fundamentally more expressive.

Doesn’t that describe the rise of JavaScript? I haven’t done or seen any specific benchmarks, but I gathered that JS was among the slowest of languages.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#46
post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

- As Moore's Law marches on, dynamic languages that are even slower than Ruby are likely to catch on. They may be to Ruby what Ruby is to Java, trading even more programmer time for CPU time. I dont think this happened?

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#47
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dynamic languages slower than ruby prediction didn't hold up either. The past ten years have just seen nibbling around the edges for dynamic languages, without any compelling ideas about how to make them fundamentally more expressive.

Doesn’t that describe the rise of JavaScript? I haven’t done or seen any specific benchmarks, but I gathered that JS was among the slowest of languages.

No, it's pretty fast [1].

Chrome and V8 were released in 2008, and Node.js (which leverages V8) in 2009. V8 was already considered fast back then. Mozilla and Apple also focused on optimizing their JS stack in the following years.

[1] I'm not a fan of linking to benchmarks, but that's the best I can do: https://benchmarksgame-team.pages.debian.net/benchmarksgame/... / https://benchmarksgame-team.pages.debian.net/benchmarksgame/...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#49
post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

- As Moore's Law marches on, dynamic languages that are even slower than Ruby are likely to catch on. They may be to Ruby what Ruby is to Java, trading even more programmer time for CPU time. I dont think this happened?

You could argue that it's JavaScript. JavaScript had terrible performance even in 2008, can't remember now what it was like by 2010, but I would guess V8 was still pretty lacklustre back then.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#50
post #29

Nobody saw Bitcoin coming. (The first block had already been mined at the start of 2009, but there was no real exchange trading until later in 2010.)

If someone saw it coming in 2010 they are extremely rich now :)

You forget how hard it is to look after it.

Bitcoin is like fairy dust , nearly impossible to grasp.

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