What Will Happen in the 2020s • Hacker News Board

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#561

Post by ianai » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 7:14 AM UTC

bobthepanda wrote: post #398

burfog wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add two at once. Possibilities include creating West California, West Washington, South Virginia, and South Illinois.

That works for balancing the Senate, but not really the House. Adding PR to the House would significantly reduce the odds of a Republican House given that the current GOP makes a lot of noises that often seem like they're racist against Hispanics.

They don’t seem racist. They ARE racist. They enact racist policies/laws every election and chance they get.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#562

Post by puranjay » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 7:15 AM UTC

pgodzin wrote: post #505

cletus wrote: post #416

So, I have a problem with a large number of these points. Each point alone requires a long rebuttal that no one would read. I think Fred is way off here. The bullet points: 1. There will be no global change in human behaviour and activity that is against the short term interests of those people. Period. The way to replace fossil fuels with renewables is by them being a cheaper source of power. We're well on the way h…

> 3. Why Fred thinks China won't have the same short term self-interest that every other country does seems fanciful at best. I think the reason would be that most countries that make short-term decisions are ones that have democratic elections every few years and need to avoid pissing off too many people. China's authoritarian system may have more leeway with short-term pain for longer-term strategic initiatives not…

Our evidence from the 20th century shows that the only countries that are successful are democratic. The list of authoritarian countries that crashed and burned is longer than the list of democratic countries that did the same.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#563

Post by teleforce » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 7:16 AM UTC

opportune wrote: post #236

I don’t really buy into 4-6. I don’t see any benefit for a country to turn its currency into a crypto asset. Either they are relinquishing a great deal of control in democratizing their financial system (also exposing themselves to attack), or it’s a crypto in name only that doesn’t seem any better than digital cash through banks except for a buzzword. Decentralization is hit or miss. You get economies of scale with…

Please check my other comments on prediction 5, which I think is the most probable of the lots

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#564

Post by pgodzin » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 7:27 AM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #562

pgodzin wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 3. Why Fred thinks China won't have the same short term self-interest that every other country does seems fanciful at best. I think the reason would be that most countries that make short-term decisions are ones that have democratic elections every few years and need to avoid pissing off too many people. China's authoritarian system may have more leeway with short-term pain for longer-term strategic initiatives not…

Our evidence from the 20th century shows that the only countries that are successful are democratic. The list of authoritarian countries that crashed and burned is longer than the list of democratic countries that did the same.

Happy to consider other examples, but it does feel like the combination of China's capitalistic reforms while maintaining its authoritarian rule and the state control of information is fairly unique in the 20th century.

And any comparables likely failed due to war with democratic countries, and that seems unlikely given China's role in the globalization of trade as well as it being a nuclear power.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#565

Post by terryf » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 7:52 AM UTC

SllX wrote: post #356

gordaco wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are being downvoted, but I think that you are totally right. For an awful lot of people, eating meat is a matter of status; it's similar to why many people prefer having big cars even if they are less environmentally friendly. There is also the fact that plant based diets are still associated to certain ideologies and because of that they will keep being scoffed at by people from opposing ideologies. Sure, you do…

As someone who isn’t considering giving up my ways, red blooded meat eating American that I am, I actually appreciate vegans to some degree. As long as there are an appreciable number of them, I will enjoy a greater variety of dishes and ingredients available to me, and oftentimes fresher ingredients too. Insofar as they are making choices that benefit them, they also make choices that benefit me. Where they lose me,…

This is probably the most balanced comment about meat-eating I've ever read.

I think the tax thing is key - I eat meat and I fly a lot. I know both of those things contribute to the climate crisis - therefore I'd be completely ok with paying some more money as tax that goes towards offsetting the environmental damage from those activities.

Lots of people think we needs to go back in development of technology and stop enjoying the things humanity has worked for a long time to achieve. Instead we should think about how we can make technology work better together with the environment and enable even more comfort and prosperity. Not force us to go back, rather find ways of moving even further forward.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#566

Post by fiestaman » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 8:00 AM UTC

ianai wrote: post #558

asveikau wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what "adding Guam and Puerto Rico" means when they are already US territories. Your comment seems to imply that this means statehood, i.e. addition of senators and voting representatives. But the parent throws them in with Greenland, which is not a US territory.

Pretty sure only trump has ever seriously posited adding Greenland to the US. I’d love for a source of that idea though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposals_for_the_United_State...

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#567

Post by knolax » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 8:01 AM UTC

> 9/ We will finally move on from the Baby Boomers dominating the conversation in the US and around the world and Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions by the end of the decade. Age and experience will be less valued by shareholders, voters, and other stakeholders and vision and courage will be valued more

I don't how the first part of his prediction leads to the other. By the time Millennials/Gen Z take control they'll be just as old amd curmudgeonly as the Boomers. All in all the article seems pretty light on justification.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#568

Post by rdevsrex » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 8:10 AM UTC

cletus wrote: post #416

So, I have a problem with a large number of these points. Each point alone requires a long rebuttal that no one would read. I think Fred is way off here. The bullet points: 1. There will be no global change in human behaviour and activity that is against the short term interests of those people. Period. The way to replace fossil fuels with renewables is by them being a cheaper source of power. We're well on the way h…

I do think nuclear will have a resurgence. You don't have to make nuclear as safe as clear air to use, only reasonably safe with a plan to handle the waste. Nuclear is already safer than coal in terms of people killed by power generation.

Finland is building the world's first long term storage depot for nuclear waste and I think the same could be done in many other places.

Plus, all the push for nuclear is for new nuclear with better efficiency in the fuel used and passive safety futures. I don't think that a significant part of the grid will be powered by nuclear in 2030, but the newer models should be coming online by then.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#569

Post by naruhodo » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 8:15 AM UTC

> We will finally move on from the Baby Boomers dominating the conversation in the US and around the world and Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions by the end of the decade.

Gen-X will continue to be forgotten, apparently.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#570

Post by wallace_f » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 8:20 AM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #207

wallace_f wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If most billionaires are optimizing for social image / good will, your idea makes no sense to most of those people.

On inspection, if they are optimising for social image / good will then a marketing campaign is the obvious starting point.

Do you really believe that a billionaire clearly funding a marketing campaign for themselves would be received well?

Charity often does good, but often does not have the intended or apparent result. See William Easterly on the subject.