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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#551

Post by KozmoNau7 »

lsc wrote: post #509
wolco wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fur is a fashion meat is a core pillar in many cultures and changing that will take longer than 10 years.

>Fur is a fashion meat is a core pillar in many cultures and changing that will take longer than 10 years. I think you are probably right... but I want to bring up the counterexample of smoking. I mean, smoking was never as widespread as eating meat, but I feel like there was a tipping point in the '90s, where it went from something almost every red blooded american would do to something very rude and even forbidden…

Some friends and I ran a weekly poker game at a local bar for a few years in the mid-00s, before an indoor smoking ban was implemented here. Every night when I came home, my clothes absolutely reeked of smoke, I couldn't even hang them inside my apartment.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#552

Post by teleforce »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #242
bransonf wrote: post #209

A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take. China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing goods. What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months. I don’t think the United States is becoming increasingly isolationist. I think we’ve seen a brief period of these attitudes, but it’s not indicative of the next decade i…

None of 4, 5, or 6 are at all likely either.

Funny that IMHO prediction 5 is the most likely and followed by prediction 2.

Prediction 5 is two decades overdue and Amazon Wavelength it just the beginning. Currently I'm working with on a problem that needs 1 TB RAM data processing and analysis. Given that's not raw data, but if a compulsary real-time technology similar to eVLBI (real-time optional), but it requires immediate processing of raw data that will probably be the killer application for the edge or fog computing. Typical web server hosting has transfer limit of few TB of data per month and Amazon cloud is charging by the bandwidth, the only way forward is to move to the edge.

Prediction 2 is quite self evident with the sudden rise of popularity of Elizabeth Warren with her proposed plan for wealthy citizen 2 percents tax [1].

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/31/2020-d...

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#553

Post by gfodor »

softwaredoug wrote: post #437

> the US becomes increasingly internally focused and isolationist in its world view. There’s about 50-60% of the US population, and 2/3 of the US economy, that are very much eager to do business with the rest of the world. They are concentrated in urban areas, and thus have issues in the political process, but it’s enough clout that I wouldn’t make hard predictions about US isolationism in the 2020s.

Isolationism does not seem to be anything more than a ghost. Any analysis that assumes that the current US administration is isolationist is in my opinion a tell that someone is trapped in a filter bubble.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#554

Post by KozmoNau7 »

pharke wrote: post #368
__d wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If an effective carbon tax is introduced (see #1) then the price of meat will rise astronomically, which will make reduced consumption inevitable. In many places, climate change will make existing agriculture unsustainable, so there'll be massive upheaval in the industry at the same time. If that's combined with a cultural movement similar to flugskam, I think drastically reduced meat consumption is possible. Of cour…

There would likely be unintended consequences to raising the price of meat through a carbon tax. It creates a market for cheaper meat that there will be no shortage of producers or consumers for. How that meat is made cheaper is an open question. It could be through carbon offsets but it could just as well be through worse conditions for the animals or importing the meat from countries where production is cheaper.

The same argument is made against raising the taxes on tobacco products, that "people will smuggle in cigarettes from countries without the tax", but it never seems to actually happen to any significant degree.

People are lazy, and if the only source of cheap meat is the black market of illegally-imported products, only a very small segment of people will bother.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#555

Post by gfodor »

chrstphrhrt wrote: post #289
rubidium wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Distributed work will continue to be a minor thing prevalent mainly in tech circles. Human nature doesn’t change on 10 year timescales. We’re tribal beings who organize around work and family. Best Buy’s pullback from it for their office staff is instructive.

Yeah I've been doing remote 95% of the last couple years and it takes a toll not being able to be around people at all. Even as a mostly introverted person who needs quiet alone time for solving harder problems and general flow state. There's something about social interaction that helps with motivation that I find hard to get over chat and video. This is assuming the people are not toxic somehow.

See my post above: there are reasons to be optimistic remote social presence and shared spatial awareness for many contexts will be solved this decade.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#556

Post by jopsen »

aazaa wrote: post #85

Many of these seem like wishful thinking on the part of the author. For example, take the first one: > The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. Oddly enough, if you go back to 2010 for predictions about the next decade, you'll see quite a few people talking about "peak oil." Almost nobody predicted a sharp turnaround in oil production and I don't think anyon…

Hmm... I suspect the movements have been so scared of loosing credibility that the predictions we have might be underestimating what will happen.

Notice, that the scientific consensus does not spell doom and gloom.. just bad warmer weather, raising oceans, etc.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#557

Post by KozmoNau7 »

cable2600 wrote: post #526
pascalxus wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the only way #6 will come true is if the replacement for meat looks, smells and tastes exactly like the real thing and it'll have to be cheaper too. People all over the world love meat, especially US, UK and the Chinese. I've tried to convince some family members to reduce their meat consumption even a tiniest amount gets a huge amount of resistance. People aren't going to give up their meat: they may not even b…

Tyson changed from a meat company to a protein company. Can make veggies taste like chicken or beef. I didn't have an Impossible Whopper yet but it costs a lot of money. For $12.99 with a coupon I can gt a family meal of three Whoppers, three cheeseburgers, and 3 fries. I hear the Vegans are mad that the Impossible Whopper is grilled on the same grill as the regular Whooper. I suppose the reason to turn away from mea…

Only a very small segment of loud'n'proud vegans on social media complain about the cooking method of the impossible whopper. And you can have it microwave cooked if you want it to not touch the grill.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#558

Post by ianai »

asveikau wrote: post #530
Fauntleroy wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory the US could add Guam and Puerto Rico... but how would that ever be politically viable? There's no way this is going to happen if one party in a two party system knows it will lead to their doom.

I don't know what "adding Guam and Puerto Rico" means when they are already US territories. Your comment seems to imply that this means statehood, i.e. addition of senators and voting representatives. But the parent throws them in with Greenland, which is not a US territory.

Pretty sure only trump has ever seriously posited adding Greenland to the US. I’d love for a source of that idea though.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#559

Post by gfodor »

boyadjian wrote: post #146

There are two wealth in this world: financial wealth, and demographic wealth. Both are limited by natural resources, so it should come as no surprise that they are declining. Humanity will be confronted with the principle of reality.

The reality is the universe is infinite and so are its resources. So in the long run, it’s unknowable if we will fail to harvest them. But there is no innate limit.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#560

Post by puranjay »

fnord77 wrote: post #442
opportune wrote: post #236

I don’t really buy into 4-6. I don’t see any benefit for a country to turn its currency into a crypto asset. Either they are relinquishing a great deal of control in democratizing their financial system (also exposing themselves to attack), or it’s a crypto in name only that doesn’t seem any better than digital cash through banks except for a buzzword. Decentralization is hit or miss. You get economies of scale with…

the trend of the world has been to decrease transaction friction and costs. Crypto increases both. And moving to crypto is like going back on the gold standard. No way to expand or contract monetary supply.

I had to make a payment in Bitcoin for the first time in years.

I honestly can't see the average person dealing with this complexity. Even the basic math is hard to grasp for the average Joe.

Try asking a normal person to quickly add 0.0005 to 0.0461. The former was the fees for my transaction.

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