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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#491

Post by Can_Not »

thedudeabides5 wrote: post #451
qaq wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is good at things we are really bad at: building up modern infrastructure fast and at reasonable cost, investing in long term projects (payoff in decades so meaningless for election cycle driven politics in other countries).

Also good at giving death penalties for white collar crime. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-27/china-sen... Keep up America!

The US has the opposite extreme of this problem, where we get 6 months for the same white collar crime but there's a minimum 5 year sentence if you grow a specific plant to treat your dehibilating asthma symptoms (http://www.hr95.org/pinson.htm).

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#492

Post by mlinsey »

6nf wrote: post #304
pascalxus wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the only way #6 will come true is if the replacement for meat looks, smells and tastes exactly like the real thing and it'll have to be cheaper too. People all over the world love meat, especially US, UK and the Chinese. I've tried to convince some family members to reduce their meat consumption even a tiniest amount gets a huge amount of resistance. People aren't going to give up their meat: they may not even b…

Faced with a choice between beef or fake beef that tastes exactly the same, most people will just go for the real beef. They don't want the highly processed fake stuff that contains who knows what. The only way beef loses is if the alternatives are significantly cheaper. If a McBeef is $5 more than a McFakeBeef then you got a shot at converting people.

I think this is inevitable if #1 is true. It may seem politically infeasible now, but if governments get really serious about climate change, then the price of many meats but especially beef will increase significantly, and that alone will give the fake beef a cost edge.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#493

Post by osn9363739 »

mitchty wrote: post #389
pascalxus wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit shocking and I'll get downvoted for it but: Not to mention that red meat is a class 2 carcinogen (Source: WHO). And processed meat, is a class 1 carcinogen, right up there with Plutonium, according to the World health organization.

> This is a bit shocking and I'll get downvoted for it but: Not to mention that red meat is a class 2 carcinogen (Source: WHO). And processed meat, is a class 1 carcinogen, right up there with Plutonium, according to the World health organization. I downvoted you not because of what you wrote, but because what you wrote is directly refuted by your (unlisted no less which I find intellectually lazy) source. Processed…

I'm on your side here, but by what you are saying, doesn't that amount to an additional 600,000 cancer cases just in the USA. Is my math wrong?

That's nothing to sneeze at.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#494

Post by RookyNumbas »

aazaa wrote: post #85

Many of these seem like wishful thinking on the part of the author. For example, take the first one: > The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. Oddly enough, if you go back to 2010 for predictions about the next decade, you'll see quite a few people talking about "peak oil." Almost nobody predicted a sharp turnaround in oil production and I don't think anyon…

I agree. Activism, Politics, Inter-governmental cooperation and policies will not be what alleviates the dangers of climate change. A few major technological breakthroughs will rock the world and we will be having a much different discussion in 20 years.

The area we will struggle with the most is fixing what we've done to our oceans.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#495

Post by imtringued »

sagichmal wrote: post #76
geoah wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ipfs, dat, zeronet I think are good examples of the sparks you are looking for. These are outside of the blockchain world of compute/storage as a service attempts that got started suring the ico goldrush and seem to be doing quite well for themselves.

> ipfs, dat, zeronet I think are good examples of the sparks you are looking for. All of these things are failures?

I agree. They are just modernized torrents with higher usability. The real problem (consensus) still only has one solution: blockchain with proof of work.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#496

Post by kmlx »

jfoster wrote: post #459
6nf wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Faced with a choice between beef or fake beef that tastes exactly the same, most people will just go for the real beef. They don't want the highly processed fake stuff that contains who knows what. The only way beef loses is if the alternatives are significantly cheaper. If a McBeef is $5 more than a McFakeBeef then you got a shot at converting people.

I think you're right, but there might be another way. What if there were a Tesla-like company? Tesla didn't just produce cars that are better for the environment, they made them awesome in every other way as well. I imagine that meat will eventually be replaced by lab-grown meat that had been engineered to be as delicious (or moreso!) as the highest grade beef, but perhaps more healthy & cheaper. The fact that it wou…

> Tesla didn't just produce cars that are better for the environment, they made them awesome in every other way as well.

as a former tesla owner, i dispute both of these assumptions.

> ... lab-grown meat ...

tesla builds cars. cars are a recent human invention. cattle on the other hand is a product of millions of years of evolution. i think it will take a bit more time to get lab meat that is as good as the real thing.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#497

Post by Tempest1981 »

Tempest1981 wrote: post #405
brlewis wrote: post #17

> We will see nuclear power make a resurgence around the world, particularly smaller reactors that are easier to build and safer to operate. Funny, I was digging into this issue just this morning. One family member supports Andrew Yang, but another won't support anyone who advocates for nuclear power. Despite Thorium not being fully proven yet, I lean toward agreement with Yang: https://en.howtruthful.com/o/nuclear_p…

TerraPower looks promising -- Safe from meltdown, uses existing nuclear waste as fuel, etc. https://www.geekwire.com/2019/inside-terrapower-nuclear-lab/ "Nuclear" probably needs a better name -- modern designs have come a long way since Fukushima was built.

Downvoted without comment -- honestly curious why it's not promising. Concern about new technology?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#498

Post by acdha »

commandlinefan wrote: post #317
aazaa wrote: post #85

Many of these seem like wishful thinking on the part of the author. For example, take the first one: > The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. Oddly enough, if you go back to 2010 for predictions about the next decade, you'll see quite a few people talking about "peak oil." Almost nobody predicted a sharp turnaround in oil production and I don't think anyon…

> Grave prophecies of doom will not come to pass, causing loss of momentum and credibility. Why would you think this? Grave prophecies of doom have failed to come to pass for nearly half a century now and the climate change tale is _gaining_ momentum.

Those estimates have been right on the money for decades:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2012/12/ipccs-climate-projec...

The problem is that since the late 1970s some very wealthy companies realized that this was happening and started spending money to try to muddy the scientific consensus and discourage action. Losing decades means that anything we do now is going to be harder since we’re starting much further behind.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#499

Post by kmlx »

jka wrote: post #369
pascalxus wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the only way #6 will come true is if the replacement for meat looks, smells and tastes exactly like the real thing and it'll have to be cheaper too. People all over the world love meat, especially US, UK and the Chinese. I've tried to convince some family members to reduce their meat consumption even a tiniest amount gets a huge amount of resistance. People aren't going to give up their meat: they may not even b…

As someone from the UK who has tended to eat meat a lot in the past - I do agree with your reading of culture in the UK historically. But I also think it's remarkable how quickly public opinion in the UK has been shifting with regard to environmental concerns. Traveling by train as opposed to air travel, reduction of single-use plastics and plastic packaging, and reduced-meat diets all feel like much more common disc…

1. trends come and go.

2. we all live in our bubbles.

both meat consumption and air travel have increased YoY over the past 25 years in the UK.

and sticking with the UK, current estimates point to an almost 100% increase in air passenger numbers in the 2030s, and Heahtrow still being in the top ten busiest airports in the world.

anecdotally, my flights have increased 2x every year for the past 5 years. this year it's been 50 flights, 40 of which intercontinental (no train availability).

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#500

Post by kmlx »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #318
6nf wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Australian system does not require signup from the recipient (or the sender for that matter) and there's no transfer limits beyond what your bank already had on your accounts previously.

Ditto for the UK and European systems. Give destination routing number and account and amount, press some button. Done. No fees, ever, and transfer is more or less instantaneous.

doesn't apply to all European systems.
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